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So we all saw the 00z/3 EC for 11/7-8. Unlikely. It's EPS is hugely trim from that 00z/3 EC OP. GEFS even through 06z/3 has less than 0.10.  NAEFS is also weak...less than 0.20.  

However, BEYOND (there is always beyond) there is general multi model agreement for a big complex storm system with lots of precip for our area 11/13-15.  Right now 1-3", iso heavier  suggested, with ice potential possible down to I84 high terrain.  Have seen it previously non-consensus modeled too wintry for the 8th down to I84. So am not saying it will be a little icy there but this system is our next potential decently sized weather event, that may eventually warrant a thread if we get to modeled damaging wind, or 4" rains, or even ice into the interior part of our NYC subforum.  Just too early (for me).

We are soon to be due for a large Nov storm system.

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23 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Notwithstanding the first frost, many of the trees are still completely green. One of the latest leaf changes that I can remember. 

It’s an odd leaf change as well… Particularly in warmer areas like the city. I notice a lot of the leaves have just dried up and started falling off the trees with out ever going through a color transformation. Almost all of the maples on my parents block in Queens are just dried up leaves. 

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24 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I remember 1975 having green trees in early December when I lived in Brooklyn...an endless summer and slow step down will do that...hopefully the bottom will fall out in Dec like some past years...

what happened in 2001? I remember that was my latest freeze with flowers blooming after Christmas lol and new flowers coming up in February, shortest freeze season ever

 

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

POU finally ends its longest above freezing streak at 210 days.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature > 32 
for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Dates
Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1931-01-01 to 2021-11-02
1 210 2021-04-07 through 2021-11-02
2 197 1942-04-15 through 1942-10-28
3 194 1971-04-25 through 1971-11-04
4 190 2007-04-22 through 2007-10-28
- 190 1975-04-23 through 1975-10-29
5 183 1990-04-20 through 1990-10-19
6 178 2016-04-16 through 2016-10-10
- 178 1946-04-19 through 1946-10-13
- 178 1944-04-20 through 1944-10-14
7 177 2018-04-24 through 2018-10-17

surprised that 2001 doesnt make this list

 

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41 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

isn't 37 the highest temp you can get frost in?

I dont think SW Nassau got any frost....too urbanized here, we didn't even get into the 30s yet

 

If the wind goes dead calm tonight even jfk has a chance for 32. You will have frost on colder surfaces tonight regardless. Lga and cpk have no shot

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2 hours ago, wdrag said:

So we all saw the 00z/3 EC for 11/7-8. Unlikely. It's EPS is hugely trim from that 00z/3 EC OP. GEFS even through 06z/3 has less than 0.10.  NAEFS is also weak...less than 0.20.  

However, BEYOND (there is always beyond) there is general multi model agreement for a big complex storm system with lots of precip for our area 11/13-15.  Right now 1-3", iso heavier  suggested, with ice potential possible down to I84 high terrain.  Have seen it previously non-consensus modeled too wintry for the 8th down to I84. So am not saying it will be a little icy there but this system is our next potential decently sized weather event, that may eventually warrant a thread if we get to modeled damaging wind, or 4" rains, or even ice into the interior part of our NYC subforum.  Just too early (for me).

We are soon to be due for a large Nov storm system.

I agree that the ECMWF is likely too amped and it will be tough to get significant precipitation as far west as the immediate NYC metro... however would not dismiss a high wind threat for E LI with ensembles trending  toward more consolidated system with better phasing.  Also, closely watching coastal flood threat for NJ shore and LI (astro. high tides peak 11/5-7 due to perigee as well as new moon). 

Of course, the larger risks for those threats are along the SE coast from N. FL to NC Outer Banks and in SE New England.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ne-gust_ge_50-6351200.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ne-gust_ge_50-6394400.png

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

what happened in 2001? I remember that was my latest freeze with flowers blooming after Christmas lol and new flowers coming up in February, shortest freeze season ever

 

 

2015-2016 was even more extreme at LGA. It was their only first freeze of the season to occur in January. Then it was followed by their biggest snowstorm on record.

Frost/Freeze Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Season Length
2015 03-29 (2015) 27 01-04 (2016) 15 280
2001 03-28 (2001) 31 12-23 (2001) 32 269
1998 03-22 (1998) 31 12-22 (1998) 24 274
2011 03-29 (2011) 32 12-11 (2011) 31 256
1948 04-10 (1948) 32 12-11 (1948) 32 244


 

Maximum 3-Day Total Snowfall 
for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Value
Ending Date
Missing Days
Period of record: 1940-01-01 to 2021-11-02
1 28.2 2016-01-25 0
- 28.2 2016-01-24 0
  27.9 2016-01-23 0
2 25.4 2006-02-13 0
- 25.4 2006-02-12 0
3 24.2 1996-01-09 0
  23.8 1996-01-08 0
  23.3 2006-02-14 0
4 22.8 1947-12-28 0
- 22.8 1947-12-27 0
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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2015-2016 was even more extreme at LGA. It was their only first freeze of the season to occur in January. Then it was followed by their biggest snowstorm on record.

Frost/Freeze Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Season Length
2015 03-29 (2015) 27 01-04 (2016) 15 280
2001 03-28 (2001) 31 12-23 (2001) 32 269
1998 03-22 (1998) 31 12-22 (1998) 24 274
2011 03-29 (2011) 32 12-11 (2011) 31 256
1948 04-10 (1948) 32 12-11 (1948) 32 244


 

Maximum 3-Day Total Snowfall 
for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Value
Ending Date
Missing Days
Period of record: 1940-01-01 to 2021-11-02
1 28.2 2016-01-25 0
- 28.2 2016-01-24 0
  27.9 2016-01-23 0
2 25.4 2006-02-13 0
- 25.4 2006-02-12 0
3 24.2 1996-01-09 0
  23.8 1996-01-08 0
  23.3 2006-02-14 0
4 22.8 1947-12-28 0
- 22.8 1947-12-27 0

1948 got two snowstorms a week after the first freezing day at LGA...16-19" on 12/19-20th...

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