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Winter 2021-22 Short/Medium Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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Now if only the GFS can be believed which we all know is next to impossible.  Even Chicago would see something from this.  The Ohio Valley is left out, but if this happens their time may come. The positive thing from this is that it looks like cold air will finally make a return to at least parts of the subforum.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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4 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Now if only the GFS can be believed which we all know is next to impossible.  Even Chicago would see something from this.  The Ohio Valley is left out, but if this happens their time may come. The positive thing from this is that it looks like cold air will finally make a return to at least parts of the subforum.

 

ugh, the gfs was a nightmare for those of us south of i80.   Back to back rainstorms with postfrontal flurries in between.    Saving grace is it's the gfs longrange OP.    Canadian is more 'rainy' looking with it's threats inside 240 hrs.

Either way I'm getting a sinking feeling about January.    MJO stuck in 7, pna stuck negative, ao and nao heading back up.    Every threat and significant cold shot in the longterm either pushes back or becomes muted.   It seems winter cant get sustained in the east as troughs move in and out and the SER keeps fighting back.

Last year we had a sucky January and a flip in Feb.   This year just has that 11'-12' stank to it.  I remember January was boring as hell and pretty much every met, (except for Don S.), was touting a flip to cold that kept getting pushed back and eventually never came.   If this January is a yawner I think there's a greater chance of a Feb/March warm up vs. a flip to colder.   Nothing meterological....just a pessimistic feeling.   

oh, and Merry Christmas!    

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1 hour ago, WestMichigan said:

Now if only the GFS can be believed which we all know is next to impossible.  Even Chicago would see something from this.  The Ohio Valley is left out, but if this happens their time may come. The positive thing from this is that it looks like cold air will finally make a return to at least parts of the subforum.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

I'd say that has about the same odds as Nagy keeping his job.

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2 hours ago, buckeye said:

ugh, the gfs was a nightmare for those of us south of i80.   Back to back rainstorms with postfrontal flurries in between.    Saving grace is it's the gfs longrange OP.    Canadian is more 'rainy' looking with it's threats inside 240 hrs.

Either way I'm getting a sinking feeling about January.    MJO stuck in 7, pna stuck negative, ao and nao heading back up.    Every threat and significant cold shot in the longterm either pushes back or becomes muted.   It seems winter cant get sustained in the east as troughs move in and out and the SER keeps fighting back.

Last year we had a sucky January and a flip in Feb.   This year just has that 11'-12' stank to it.  I remember January was boring as hell and pretty much every met, (except for Don S.), was touting a flip to cold that kept getting pushed back and eventually never came.   If this January is a yawner I think there's a greater chance of a Feb/March warm up vs. a flip to colder.   Nothing meterological....just a pessimistic feeling.   

oh, and Merry Christmas!    

Not to mention a chance of 21-22 to end up as the next Winter with single-digit snowfall totals by March.

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4 hours ago, Weather Mike said:

that would be epic. 

I am heading to the Green Bay game on the 2nd so please yes let that verify 

 

We had a storm like the GFS is hinting at in April of 2018. It dumped 3 feet around the Green Bay Area, will never forget it. GFS still has the idea of a powerful storm right after New Years but the other models seem to disagree right now. 

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Looks like LOT will finally get on the board Tuesday (28th) with a little front-end snow before changing to rain.  Prob a DAB, but if the changeover holds off long enough perhaps an inch or two?  

Down this way the period of snow/sleet/frz rain looks shorter, but still could get a DAB/very minor glaze before light rain/dry slot arrives.

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3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like LOT will finally get on the board Tuesday (28th) with a little front-end snow before changing to rain.  Prob a DAB, but if the changeover holds off long enough perhaps an inch or two?  

Down this way the period of snow/sleet/frz rain looks shorter, but still could get a DAB/very minor glaze before light rain/dry slot arrives.

12Z Euro with a full fledged snowstorm in N IL!!!

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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Looks like LOT will finally get on the board Tuesday (28th) with a little front-end snow before changing to rain.  Prob a DAB, but if the changeover holds off long enough perhaps an inch or two?  
Down this way the period of snow/sleet/frz rain looks shorter, but still could get a DAB/very minor glaze before light rain/dry slot arrives.

Ton of spread on ENS right now, so we’ll see how it trends.

But yea, it’s definitely the next threat to end the new record.


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Looks like LOT will finally get on the board Tuesday (28th) with a little front-end snow before changing to rain.  Prob a DAB, but if the changeover holds off long enough perhaps an inch or two?  
Down this way the period of snow/sleet/frz rain looks shorter, but still could get a DAB/very minor glaze before light rain/dry slot arrives.

Fantasy land 0z NAM says hi.


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