OBS and nowcast 9PM tonight-8A Wednesday for a general 2-5" rain, isolated 8" possible. 40-60 kt damaging wind likely Tuesday-early Wednesday. Focus for damaging wind and heaviest rain is the I95 corridor to the coasts. Power outages esp CT LI.

[Brian5671]

best winds here were yesterday around 11am.    Heavy rain the main story here with about 3 inches total

[wdrag]

Prelim wrap on qpf... 

CoCoRaHs TWO DAY totals maps below. Click to enlarge.  My 4.73 in Wantage NJ (8s High Point) looks pretty good. Walpack 5.02 and Vernon 5.04 via NJWXNET. 

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Prelim wrap on qpf... 

CoCoRaHs TWO DAY totals maps below. Click to enlarge.  My 4.73 in Wantage NJ (8s High Point) looks pretty good. Walpack 5.02 and Vernon 5.04 via NJWXNET. 

That rain pivot axis in central Suffolk around Rt 112 looks like it had the best rain totals of the whole area, over 6” and they were also stuck under some heavy bands even just outside that area. Looks like I had about 4.5” in Huntington Station. 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That rain pivot axis in central Suffolk around Rt 112 looks like it had the best rain totals of the whole area, over 6” and they were also stuck under some heavy bands even just outside that area. Looks like I had about 4.5” in Huntington Station. 

The Monday run of the HREF did a good job with the Central Suffolk max.

 

 

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Monday run of the HREF did a good job with the Central Suffolk max.

 

 

Yep. Hard to bet against it. 

[Franklin0529]

4.6" total here in hazlet. Northern Monmouth county 

[hudsonvalley21]

4.08 in the latest event. Total of 4.52 for the last 2 events.

[weathermedic]

3.82 at my station here in Sheepshead Bay.

[guinness77]

Guessing the system is finally pulling away because I’m getting my biggest gusts now. 40mph range. 

[Nibor]

Big wind gusts here. 

[wdrag]

OKX has just published LSR winds of 62-70 MPH from near Groton to e LI. 

[Intensewind002]

Final total for me was 2.73” we’ve been in a bit of a rain hole in SW Suffolk for all the big rain events this year so my yearly total is probably half that of places in nyc and nj. Hopefully this doesn’t translate to winter again (we got dry slotted in both the dec 2020 and feb 2021 snowstorms too).

 

Highest wind gusts were only in the 30-35 mph range it looks like for western LI

[jconsor]

As @bluewave mentioned, the subtropical nature of this system meant that the strongest winds were tightly concentrated close to the center.  That factor, along with this system looping quite close to se New England, helped to generate gusts across SE New England that exceeded two similarly looping storms that were a little further offshore - Blizzard of Feb 1978 and the Perfect Storm of 1991. 

Meanwhile, the same small radius of max winds ensured that gusts across LI, NYC and coastal CT were less than what one would typically see with a wintertime system of this intensity tracking just inside the 40/70 benchmark.
 

 

[jconsor]

Some chase videos of the hybrid nor'easter:
 

 

 

[jconsor]

6 hours ago, wdrag said:

OKX has just published LSR winds of 62-70 MPH from near Groton to e LI. 

FYI I do not consider the 60-70 mph gusts reported at Baiting Hollow and Stony Brook out in central Suffolk County, LI to be representative.  The Stony Brook site anemometer is ~70 feet above ground.     I believe Baiting Hollow is on a ~75 foot bluff right on LI Sound. 

In my experience, both stations tend to run >25% higher than any nearby stations in past events.

Compare current sustained winds at both sites to surrounding sites - generally 2x the land stations, even those right along the coast.

 

[guinness77]

 

western sky from Huntington Station about 20 minutes ago. Zooming by north to south. 

[Tatamy]

2 hours ago, jconsor said:

FYI I do not consider the 60-70 mph gusts reported at Baiting Hollow and Stony Brook out in central Suffolk County, LI to be representative.  The Stony Brook site anemometer is ~70 feet above ground.     I believe Baiting Hollow is on a ~75 foot bluff right on LI Sound. 

In my experience, both stations tend to run >25% higher than any nearby stations in past events.

Compare current sustained winds at both sites to surrounding sites - generally 2x the land stations, even those right along the coast.

 

How about the 68 mph out at Fire Island Pines?

[wdrag]

OBS and nowcast 9PM tonight-8A Wednesday for a general 2-5" rain, isolated 8" possible. 40-60 kt damaging wind likely Tuesday-early Wednesday. Focus for damaging wind and heaviest rain is the I95 corridor to the coasts. Power outages esp CT LI.

 

Reviewing Sundays 24th thread above:  I didn't see 8" but overall I think the combined efforts here-in had a pretty accurate short fuse accounting of what would happen, in advance.     Power outages were more in the forested areas north of I95 but I think we can agree the eastern tip of LI had near 70 Mph gusts. The extent of advisory/warning level winds was less than modeled.  

Max rainfall around 6.5".  When the Delaware goes into flood from where it was,  (a short fuse rise of 15 feet!!!) that tells you that it was a good thing the we were dry for 2+ weeks in advance of this event. 

I think aside from accurate SPC HREF, the EPS 5" coverage area was very good...better than the GEFS and imo, it also handled the intensity of the 85MB ne jet across New England much better. 

I'm pretty much done with this thread... thanks to all the contributors and critiques. The EDD comment this morning triggered my learning of this program from a long time met friend in CT and you'll in the future see imagery of reality max gusts.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.20" of rain for the day.

Final storm total 4.92"