OBS and nowcast 9PM tonight-8A Wednesday for a general 2-5" rain, isolated 8" possible. 40-60 kt damaging wind likely Tuesday-early Wednesday. Focus for damaging wind and heaviest rain is the I95 corridor to the coasts. Power outages esp CT LI.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

Winds do seem to be subsiding a bit, maybe because that pivot you guys spoke of is in the process of starting (guessing winds picked up in the last hour because that was the end of that band of precip) but I’m already thinking NWS is downplaying these winds. Max gusts on their forecast for the afternoon is “only” 30mph, and I would say we already topped that. Then only calling for 36mph gusts for tonight/early am? I don’t buy that. 
 

Again, thanks for all the info, it’s much appreciated. 

BDR has gusted to 44 already....

[snywx]

3.35” so far.. 

Not much wind to speak of 

[winterwx21]

The rain has pushed to the north. Picked up 3.65" here. A lot of rain obviously and flooding in some spots, but thankfully nothing like Ida. Last night I moved my cars to higher ground to make sure they wouldn't get flooded again in case the worst case scenario of getting 6+ inches of rain happened, but thankfully that didn't happen.

[MJO812]

Euro and EPS have been trash. No one should take it seriously anymore. I think the 6z run from yesterday had the storm tucked near the coast. 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Euro and EPS have been trash. No one should take it seriously anymore. I think the 6z run from yesterday had the storm tucked near the coast. 

The storm will be pinwheeling back towards the coast tonight. We will get the strongest winds tonight into tomorrow. The rain will pick back up too.

[lee59]

Rain has stopped and I see some blue sky to my south -southwest toward the ocean.

[the_other_guy]

Inbound to EWR. On time. Rain stopped. SW winds at 10 knots at the moment.

They even turned the airport around to land on the 22s.

Not anything like the aviation forecast from this morning…happily

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 1.45 in the rain bucket, rain has subsided to a drizzle here.

[guinness77]

Winds have subsided significantly so maybe my lol was a little premature. Precip has completely stopped, but it is muggy as hell. Uncomfortable, even. 

[Snowlover11]

absolutely ripping  rain here street looks like a river currently.  should be fun riding to check out a potential new house yoday.

[MJO812]

Cloudy here with skies brightening here in Brooklyn. More rain on the way later as the storm backs in.

[NJwx85]

Absolutely pouring here in Ramsey, NJ under the pivot.

[NJwx85]

The initial dry slot over the immediate coast is because the parent low is tucked right into the coast near NY harbor. The surface low that will be brining the wind is still located well Southeast of the benchmark.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The initial dry slot over the immediate coast is because the parent low is tucked right into the coast near NY harbor. The surface low that will be brining the wind is still located well Southeast of the benchmark.

Yep. The LLJ is also pushing north which means once the rain stops the winds should subside for a while. The parent low will die off and the one offshore will take over, meaning the rain will pivot back south and winds increase as it pinwheels. If this was winter, this front end batch would be a driving rain for most of us or snow to rain because of that tucked in low reflection near JFK. The precip pivoting back south would be snow due to the offshore low taking over. 

[Brian5671]

dry slot has pushed in here-way north of where any model had it.   Amazing the NAM and HRRR could bust that close in....

[nycwinter]

the city will bust and not get to where the nws had predicted for rainfall totals.

[weathermedic]

Barometer down to 991 at my station with a total of 2.73 inches of rain so far. Winds light with a W-SW component.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

the city will bust and not get to where the nws had predicted for rainfall totals.

eventually we'll see rain push SW again,but doubt it's as heavy as what we saw on the front end

[Rjay]

12 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

the city will bust and not get to where the nws had predicted for rainfall totals.

What did they predict?  3-6"?

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

the city will bust and not get to where the nws had predicted for rainfall totals.

We have still a long ways to go. The rain pushing back south won’t be as heavy as the front end but it’ll still be 1-3 more inches probably. 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

the city will bust and not get to where the nws had predicted for rainfall totals.

The storm isn't over

I see we are in winter mode

[nycwinter]

not bad outside temps near 60 no rain some brightening in the sky cover..

[Snowlover11]

dear lord at the bust calls this was a given a break till later tonight.  another 1-2” iso 3” amounts are possible later this evening into early morning

[NycStormChaser]

Current rainfall totals as of 1:00 PM

[crossbowftw3]

Look to be approaching 4” here and still raining at a very solid clip, but the dry slot is trying to come in and shut us off. After that our most significant rains are probably done here n/w of city proper. 

[allgame830]

9 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Look to be approaching 4” here and still raining at a very solid clip, but the dry slot is trying to come in and shut us off. After that our most significant rains are probably done here n/w of city proper. 

Yes but later on this evening/tonight the rain will move back in as well will the winds.

[Will - Rutgers]

a road closure due to flooding in North Plainfield delayed my trip to Costco to get a hot dog for lunch, so i am upgrading this storm to NESIS 5

[crossbowftw3]

15 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Yes but later on this evening/tonight the rain will move back in as well will the winds.

I’m far enough away from NYC that I would be considered as just being on the fringes of this subforum, if that helps.

[STORMANLI]

2.69"

[winterwx21]

Some sun has come out here.