wdrag Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 This first event is slated mainly for Monday night-early Tuesday night but with a pulse of showers, some heavy occurring overnight Sunday night and potential for bands of high wind and or heavy rain remaining in the NYC subforum into early Wednesday, depending on the departure of the eventual nor'easter. Max gust for e LI may get close to 70 MPH with wind damage 'potential' of 50 MPH gusts s of I84 in CT into far se NYS through ne NJ. Fully leaved tree branches with potential for sodden ground uproots Tuesday due to heavy rainfall and the gusts should result in pockets of power outages from simply broken branches. If it looks extensive, we will update the topic title. Max rainfall seems to be targeting CT/se NYS/NYC metro-ne NJ but proximity of max inflow-moisture transport still showing modeling variability for the primary target. In any case... it appears likely that along and north of I78 there will be periodic showers overnight with new rainfall by sunrise ranging from a few hundredths to possibly 1". After a break Monday, bands of heavy showers should be developing north and northwest into the area Monday evening and slow their northwest to west progress Tuesday before turning southward later Tuesday night. By 8AM Wed, isolated 6" rains may have occurred with a general 1.5-3" in the subforum. FF potential while initially limited by recent dryness, the rainfall rates and amounts in banding will eventually determine where any FF potential will be realized-it's just too early to determine, as of this 720PM Sunday writing. Please follow all future NWS warnings/statements. Let's see what the OBS herein tell us about the modeling by Tuesday night. Edited title rainfall up from 1.5-4 iso 6, to 2-5, iso 8. Edited title at 1025A/26 to like 40-60KT gust focused on CT-LI. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 520AM updated the dual storm thread with my interp of multiple guidance, seen through 5AM/25. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 6z Euro has up to 9 inches of rain for parts of NJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 6z Euro has up to 9 inches of rain for parts of NJ Where is the low ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Where is the low ? closest approach here then it moves SE and out to sea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: closest approach here then it moves SE and out to sea Big battle on new Euro Vs GFS. This Euro bias was supposed to be corrected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: closest approach here then it moves SE and out to sea Let's get a repeat of this in exactly two months, thanks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Dont know what that poster is talking about as the gfs and euro have similar qpf distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Guys this is the OBS and nowcast thread. There's a model discussion thread for this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: 6z Euro has up to 9 inches of rain for parts of NJ Gradually increasing amounts. Widespread 4-6" totals looking likely with isolated 8"+ amounts. I'm seeing a double barreled low with one low on the coast and a second SE of LI. Eventually the two merge what is why the eastern low loops west to just off the NJ coast. Wind impacts could come from the initial low on the coast and from the subtropical like storm that retros. You can really see the LLJ increase on the HRRR. LI is going to get whacked. I definitely could see them getting near hurricane force gusts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 55 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Big battle on new Euro Vs GFS. This Euro bias was supposed to be corrected Precip on the 6z run gfs was west on the run compared to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Feels warm and muggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, David-LI said: Feels warm and muggy It's got that "I just landed on from redeye to Orlando at 4am" in the winter feel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Icon looks like the Euro but not as strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 25, 2021 Author Share Posted October 25, 2021 Rainfall with the warm front was generally 1/2" extreme north to nil extreme south. Have adjusted title rainfall up a touch to 2-5", iso 8" but that's it for me at this time. Wind I expect as previously noted. Best chance for damaging wind Tue night when the storm center and associated 70kt EPS ensembled jet sweep southwest for a while. 60 kt G seems reasonable for extreme e LI Tue night...the strongest out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Big cell just blew up to my south. Thundering now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Rain with thunder and lightning as the first rain band moves up from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, CIK62 said: 0.34” so far with the first round of 35 dbz echos as they moved through the Allentown/Bethlehem area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 thunder here in yonkers, first rain drops falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Big cell just blew up to my south. Thundering now Lots of close lightning strikes with this cell, and some 40mph wind gusts. Nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Pounded for a while here. Very heavy rain, frequent lightening and thunder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 26, 2021 Author Share Posted October 26, 2021 0ver 3/4" in less than 1 hr Wantage. My rain data is very close to digital output. i see over 2" in parts of ne NJ now. This is going to be bad news for parts of NNJ/se NYS/NYC/maybe ne PA too. After all the rain next 18 hours we send a bunch of wind southwest thru CT/LI to add power outages. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Just saw lightning to my west, probably around the bronx https://www.lightningmaps.org/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Nothing to speak of here, we usually are the late comers to the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 7 minutes ago, lee59 said: Nothing to speak of here, we usually are the late comers to the game. Storms popping up all over eastern Long Island. Band with lightning approaching from south shore. https://www.nbcnewyork.com/weather/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Not much going on here so far, only picked up 0.03" of rain. I expect that to change over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Yeah same here with 0.04"... temp down to 63° with a ne wind now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 Just rained really hard here from about 1 am to 1: 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 2 hours ago, David-LI said: Storms popping up all over eastern Long Island. Band with lightning approaching from south shore. https://www.nbcnewyork.com/weather/ Might have gotten a part of that it rained really hard here for 15 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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