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Potential Major Noreaster 10-26 through 10-27


ineedsnow
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You can really see how this is likely to evolve just by observing the general synoptic layout and then balancing in the looping satellite.

That best present perceived centric low pressure has coalesced SE of the Cape ... It appears on sat to be moving NNE, but ..there is a limit to how much longer that motion can persist.  There is blocking NNE ..this thing has maybe 50 more naut mi before it's slammin' to a halt.  It will at minimum stall when that happens, but may as well assume the advertised west motion toward the coast.  The latter italicized is crucial in the amount of wind that pulses west along with it, then lingerings over night - if and when..

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A recent check of reports from buoy 44011 (Georges Bank) and satellite animation suggests that retrograde center has formed around 40 nm southwest of that location or around 40.8 N 67.5 W and until last few obs the winds were gusting to 65-70 mph at that buoy, slight decrease past half hour and pressure check-rise probably means that strongest winds are now heading west. From both GFS and RGEM the track of this feature looks to be just to the south of ACK around 04-06z. Strongest winds to coast probably 03-05z, my guess peak winds at BOS around 65 mph, land areas of s.e. MA 75-80 mph. Will gradually back off to 45-55 and stay in that range for most of the overnight. 

U probly knew that but just putting it up as a thought. 

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5 hours ago, George001 said:

I love to see these big rainstorms at this time. I don’t know how true this is but I have heard that when there are big nor’easters in the fall, often times that is a good sign for winter because we are establishing a favorable storm track, and those wind driven rainstorms now will be severe nor’easters with blizzard conditions at times in the winter.

yeah that worked out great in Oct 2011 :ph34r:

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1 minute ago, SJonesWX said:

yeah that worked out great in Oct 2011 :ph34r:

I feel like that's a misconception that's floated around b/c one fall we had big rainy Nor'easters and happened to get nailed that winter. 

Just like back in the day everyone thought weak La nina's meant big winter's here b/c of 95-96

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51 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 :huh: :P

I'll ne shocked if I hit 50mph.

Agree 100%. Interior SE Mass is kind of a pit for winds. I’d be pretty surprised if we say anything more than a few gusts approaching 50.

I can’t wait to verify reality with all these weenie gust maps. My guess is there will be a lot of disappointment in those products (as there usually is).

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3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Agree 100%. Interior SE Mass is kind of a pit for winds. I’d be pretty surprised if we say anything more than a few gusts approaching 50.

I can’t wait to verify reality with all these weenie gust maps. My guess is there will be a lot of disappointment in those products (as there usually is).

They usually find a station or a SM post with a rogue reading and lose their undies claiming to be right. 

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