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Oct. 23-25 Severe/Heavy Rain (especially Sunday)


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If it's OK, I think tomorrow's severe and heavy rain threats now warrants its own thread.  Will be interesting to see this afternoon's Day 2 Update.  Wouldn't be surprised if most of MO eventually goes MDT tomorrow.

Overlooked in the midst of tomorrow's ENH for MO and W IL (with hatched TOR possibilities in C/S MO) is that the same areas may get an early start on the severe tonight into early tomorrow.  Marginal from Springfield, IL westward for tonight with Slight in the north half of MO into Eastern KS:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Threat may continue into Monday for the far eastern portion of the sub.  Slight for S OH with marginal extending south and east:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

 

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I am going to post these because it may be the last interesting day to post updraft helicity tracks for the Midwest for the year. There seems to be some agreement on the updraft helicity tracks in central IL, but my own idea is that the higher tornado threat might be SE Missouri.

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10 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I'm on i-72 right now, clouds are indeed starting to break in front of this approaching line on the border

 

10 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I'm on i-72 right now, clouds are indeed starting to break in front of this approaching line on the border

You may get lucky.  Storms are exploding from Columbia Mo to Macomb...then there is a break and then the line in nw Mo.

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2 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

 

You may get lucky.  Storms are exploding from Columbia Mo to Macomb...then there is a break and then the line in nw Mo.

In your opinion where should I head to right now exactly? Headed to Hannibal right now but I need to turn north at some point I think

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5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

In your opinion where should I head to right now exactly? Headed to Hannibal right now but I need to turn north at some point I think

Sunset is in three hours, I think you gotta get west or you will run out of light before they get to you. I agree that a northward turn for you at some point is probably the good play.  Ride the warm front to the triple point. 

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Please excuse any spelling mistakes I'm using voice to text. I'm only about half an hour away from the line which is why I'm worried about getting stuck behind it by accident.

The two shows north of i-72 look fairly decent but there's some pretty big cells farther down the line as well so I could just engage those instead

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-242100-  
/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0021.000000T0000Z-211024T2100Z/  
CALDWELL MO-  
340 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR WESTERN  
CALDWELL COUNTY...  
          
AT 339 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR KINGSTON, OR NEAR  
HAMILTON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE   
         TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS   
         LIKELY.  
  
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
HAMILTON AND KINGSTON.   
  

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tornado in northern Missouri

 

Quote

At 451 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Linneus, or 12
miles northwest of Brookfield, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

 

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