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Severe Weather event October 23rd-27th 2021


weatherextreme
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If these things stay discrete for a little while before lining up, tomorrow is going to be very interesting. Other than maybe a little more sunshine, you've got a recipe that'd make Bobby Flay jealous tomorrow. LCL's crazy low, tons of bulk shear, high SRH, and ample CAPE. I'd go MDT if I were the SPC though, ample instability is a solid guarantee of a widespread outbreak regardless of what the storm mode will be

 

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WFUS53 KEAX 241912  
TOREAX  
WFUS53 KEAX 241912  
TOREAX  
KSC043-MOC003-087-241945-  
/O.NEW.KEAX.TO.W.0016.211024T1912Z-211024T1945Z/  
  
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
212 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  EAST CENTRAL DONIPHAN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...  
  SOUTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...  
  SOUTHWESTERN ANDREW COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...  
  
* UNTIL 245 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 212 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER TROY, MOVING  
  NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  TROY, COUNTRY CLUB VILLA, COUNTRY CLUB, AMAZONIA AND FANNING. 
KSC043-MOC003-087-241945-  
/O.NEW.KEAX.TO.W.0016.211024T1912Z-211024T1945Z/  
  
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
212 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  EAST CENTRAL DONIPHAN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...  
  SOUTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...  
  SOUTHWESTERN ANDREW COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...  
  
* UNTIL 245 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 212 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER TROY, MOVING  
  NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  TROY, COUNTRY CLUB VILLA, COUNTRY CLUB, AMAZONIA AND FANNING. 

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12 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

I’m shocked there isn’t more discussion on here. Some big dog twisters tonight south of St Louis

There's some in the lakes/ov forum. This has already outperformed all the 10 page thread events from spring severe season. 

 

 

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Here is a NAM 3-km cross-section east-to-west through the dryline tomorrow. The warm moist sector will have the moisture confined to being below 800mb. This dryline has very low relative humidities west of it. You can see the slight increase in potential contours to 307K-310K. (lines on this plot). It's also cool to see the high-res models have elevations above 700mb (roughly 10000 ft) in SW Colorado, built into the land system. You can also see the evidence of the cooler air coming in to the Rockies, as the -12C isotherm dips from above 500mb's elevation to around 600mb.

1TeR9cH.png

 

several storms could develop with over 2000 J/kg of CAPE and 0-3km storm-relative helcity of 300-400m2/s2 and 0-6km shear of 50 kt (sounding near west Oklahoma)

vK76B2c.jpg

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Two tornado warned storms in the Houston metro and another heading towards Beaumont

Tornado Warning
TXC201-271345-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0027.211027T1316Z-211027T1345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
816 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 845 AM CDT.

* At 815 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Cypress, or 7 miles northwest of Addicks Park Ten,
  moving east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Jersey Village and northeastern Addicks Park Ten around 825 AM
  CDT.
  Spring Branch West, Carverdale, Fairbanks / Northwest Crossing,
  Westbranch and Willowbrook around 830 AM CDT.
  Spring Branch North, Spring Valley, Greater Inwood, Spring Branch
  East and Spring Branch Central around 835 AM CDT.
  Hunters Creek Village, Greater Greenspoint, Hilshire Village,
  Central Northwest, Langwood, Lazybrook / Timbergrove and Greater
  Uptown around 840 AM CDT.
  Northside / Northline, Aldine, Near Northside Houston, Greater
  Heights, Memorial Park, Downtown Houston, Neartown / Montrose,
  Afton Oaks / River Oaks Area, Fourth Ward and Greater Fifth Ward
  around 845 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Discovery Green, Compass Stadium and Minute Maid Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and
widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest
floor of a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2987 9576 2994 9576 2999 9527 2972 9530
TIME...MOT...LOC 1315Z 276DEG 33KT 2990 9571

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
814 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

TXC201-339-271330-
/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-211027T1330Z/
Montgomery TX-Harris TX-
814 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTIES...

At 813 AM CDT, a severe squall line capable of producing both
tornadoes and extensive straight line wind damage was located near
Pinehurst, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

These dangerous storms will be near...
  The Woodlands around 820 AM CDT.
  The Woodlands Pavillion around 830 AM CDT.
  Spring, Oak Ridge North, Shenandoah, Woodloch, Chateau Woods and
  Splashtown around 835 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and
widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest
floor of a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3015 9568 3022 9568 3024 9535 3006 9543
TIME...MOT...LOC 1313Z 274DEG 30KT 3018 9564

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

$$

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
818 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

TXC245-271345-
/O.CON.KLCH.TO.W.0058.000000T0000Z-211027T1345Z/
Jefferson TX-
818 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY...

At 817 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 14 miles south of La Belle, or 16 miles southeast of
Hamshire, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Port Arthur, La Belle and Sea Rim State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2992 9425 2987 9393 2967 9404 2965 9413
      2961 9422
TIME...MOT...LOC 1317Z 194DEG 19KT 2967 9416

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Brazzell
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 Mesoscale Discussion 1912
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0908 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

   Areas affected...southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 540...

   Valid 271408Z - 271545Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 540 continues.

   SUMMARY...The greatest threat for tornadoes through 16Z will persist
   with discrete storms developing from southeast TX and possibly far
   southwest LA.

   DISCUSSION...Early this morning a warm front extends through
   southwest LA north of Lake Charles into southeast TX near Jasper,
   then farther northwest where it intersects the squall line which
   extends southward through the Houston metro area and beyond. The
   warm sector to the south and east of these boundaries is very moist
   with low to mid 70s F dewpoints along with temperatures in the upper
   70s F. The 12Z RAOBs and latest objective analysis show the
   atmosphere in this area to be moderately unstable with around 1500
   J/kg MLCAPE. VWP data from Lake Charles also indicates sizeable
   low-level hodographs with 250-300 m2/s2 storm relative helicity
   based on current storm motions. This strongly sheared, low-LCL
   environment will remain favorable for low-level mesocyclones and
   tornadoes next couple hours as discrete supercells continue moving
   northeast through the warm sector. Some interaction with the warm
   front is also likely, potentially augmenting the tornado threat.

   Farther west, damaging wind will remain the primary threat along the
   squall line, but a couple of brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out
   with any embedded mesovortices.

   ..Dial.. 10/27/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

   LAT...LON   31029405 30739340 30189340 29759405 29889481 30609464
               30929444 31029405 
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