Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,987
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Dankles
    Newest Member
    Dankles
    Joined

Two large rain/wind events 10/25-26, 10/28-30 w probable totals by Oct 31 of 2.5-8" in the NYC subforum, damaging wind and SVR potential for one of these storms


wdrag
 Share

Recommended Posts

I'd be surprised if there are wide spread power outages in suffolk, at least on the south shore. There has to be wind gusts to at least around 75-80 mph (ala Sandy, Isaias, march 2010 noreaster) to really get anything beyond moderate where I live, and maybe more around 60-65 if the ground is saturated enough like with Irene, which only the forks are probably gonna see.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

I'd be surprised if there are wide spread power outages in suffolk, at least on the south shore. There has to be wind gusts to at least around 75-80 mph (ala Sandy, Isaias, march 2010 noreaster) to really get anything beyond moderate where I live, and maybe more around 60-65 if the ground is saturated enough like with Irene, which only the forks are probably gonna see.

Most of Isaias wind gusts were in the 50s and 60s across long island minus one or two in the 70s 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

Most of Isaias wind gusts were in the 50s and 60s across long island minus one or two in the 70s 

I recorded a gust to 69 mph in Lindenhurst on my weather station, of course it helped that it was right on the bay since that's where my aunt and uncle lived at the time but around the same time KFRG reported a gust to 78. I was basing it off that kfrg report but I agree, it was more realistically in the 50s and 60s for the most part

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

I recorded a gust to 69 mph in Lindenhurst on my weather station, of course it helped that it was right on the bay since that's where my aunt and uncle lived at the time but around the same time KFRG reported a gust to 78. I was basing it off that kfrg report but I agree, it was more realistically in the 50s and 60s for the most part

There certainly were gusts into the 70s in my neighborhood given the amount of tree damage and the fact there was little rain-just really some showers east of the track. 
 

With this, gusts in the 50s to 60mph will cause trees to go down given how saturated the ground is. That’ll mostly be for the shore areas especially out east in Suffolk but it’s also all about how close the low gets as it pinwheels. For more wind you want it more tucked for sure. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

There certainly were gusts into the 70s in my neighborhood given the amount of tree damage and the fact there was little rain-just really some showers east of the track. 
 

With this, gusts in the 50s to 60mph will cause trees to go down given how saturated the ground is. That’ll mostly be for the shore areas especially out east in Suffolk but it’s also all about how close the low gets as it pinwheels. For more wind you want it more tucked for sure. 

Checking the buoys the strong winds are still way off shore. This is going to have to move west fast before the storm starts to occlude and winds die. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@wdrag Current Mt. Holly discussion for the late week storm. Still not hitting the wind potential to hard but coming around to the heavy rain idea. Upton has similar thoughts.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 
  A mid and upper level short wave ridge briefly builds over our 
  region on Thursday, resulting in tranquil and dry conditions. An 
  onshore northeasterly/easterly flow through the day will mean 
  temperatures may be a degree or two lower than today, but still 
  near normal with highs from the mid 50s to mid 60s.  
   
  After Thursday, our attention turns to the next closed low. This 
  low will be taking an inland track from the lower Mississippi 
  Valley to the northeastern U.S. from Thursday into Saturday. 
  Compared to the model runs 24 hours ago, there are some stark 
  differences with the latest runs. For one, most guidance is a 
  bit slower with the precip entering our region, as much of the 
  region may stay dry through Thursday night. The most notable 
  change though was that many of the operational models now show  
  a brief period of cyclogenesis on Friday as the low is centered  
  to the SW of our region (with yesterday`s run, the low was  
  filling/weakening as it approached our region). This could set  
  the stage for a low level southeasterly jet on the order of 40  
  to 60 kt progressing over our region from Friday afternoon to  
  Friday evening.  
   
  If this happens, that would result in significant moisture  
  transport coincident with the best synoptic scale lift,  
  resulting in an increased risk for heavy rain and flash  
  flooding. Not surprisingly, model soundings show precipitable 
  water values well above normal and mean RH values close to 100 
  percent through this time. If this solution develops, the area 
  most at risk for heavy rain would likely be the 95 corridor, and 
  locations just south and east of the fall line (as the low level 
  jet impacting the fall line could result in additional lift due 
  to orographic lift). Thus, I have added in a mention of heavy  
  rain in the grids generally along and SE of the 95 corridor. If 
  there is a silver lining in this solution it is that the area 
  most at risk with this event should be south and east of areas 
  that were the most impacted with the Monday night/Tuesday rain. 
   
  The other thing to watch for in these patterns is the potential 
  for the winds in the low level jet to mix down to the surface 
  resulting in strong winds. At this point, momentum transfer 
  during this period looks poor, so even if this solution were to 
  develop, it appears unlikely that there would be widespread wind 
  gusts of 45 mph+ (wind advisory criteria) on land. 
   
  All that being said, I have hesitation going completely with  
  this solution. In addition to this being a new trend, it is also 
  highly dependent on the location of the entire vertical profile 
  of the low. Small changes in the position, even in just one  
  level of the atmosphere could result in big changes of the net 
  impacts. Thus, will hold off on any flood watches or additional 
  messaging for at least another model run cycle to see if this 
  trend continues. 
   
  && 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fri afternoon-Saturday night: expect 1-3" of rain, iso 4" possible. FFG will be a lot lower so FF potential exists NNJ-se NYS.  

Any ongoing river flooding recessions this week will reverse with some rises in NJ/e PA/se NYS Fri night-Saturday because of the renewed rainfall-runoff.  

Wind in NJ coast may be higher than this mornings, by about 15 knots (easterly gusts 35-40 knots).

Also coastal flood threat is a bit larger tho biggest inflow seems at low tide Fri eve. 

NYC which had 3.66" in this storm (less than I expected), should end up with 4.7"+ this week and monthly totals over 5.2", possible higher. 

Lots tbd, so lets get some 2 day precip summaries posted at 10am, as well as max winds/power outages.

I'll add more to part two of this thread and a quick summary of part one, late today. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I anticipate 1-3" of rain between 6PM Friday and midnight Saturday night in the forum, with most of it Friday night or Saturday morning, along with coastal easterly winds gusts of 40 kt and a period of minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding, especially the Saturday morning high tide as pressure continues to lower despite abating easterly inflo.  Isolated 4".

I anticipate renewed river-small stream flooding or reversal of any recessions in the subforum. Best chance for FF would be northeast NJ where 6 hourly rainfall of about 3/4-1" would I think prompt some sort of advisory-warning. 

So while volume will be less, due to shorter duration and lesser wind inflow, the stage was set with this early week storm.  

I have not thought much about severe at this time, but there is CAPE around this weekend, so Saturday afternoon-evening convection may also be of interest, especially with fairly strong winds aloft and a TT of near 50 currently modeled for late Saturday (northwest of I95?) .

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Afternoon models amping up LLJ for tomorrow night. You can see there's better mixing with higher temps depicted for S/C NJ. 

Much more of a wind threat than the last system. Could easily see  widespread 40-50mph gusts.

Yeah, this low is closer to our area this time. So the 40-50 mph gusts will be further west.  Windswept heavy downpours tomorrow evening. We’ll see if the NAM marginal severe soundings verify for some localized higher gust potential.

404ED651-CBC0-4A7B-AFE4-71553186ACD2.thumb.gif.bade95537347e1a69e7a253b2ec9dfe7.gif
 

CA044816-BE7E-4B2F-91D4-251FF04726F0.thumb.png.6de656e41c6d2230a6749a06e28a07e0.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, krisb said:

When should we be expecting the first rains to arrive tomorrow? Will the commute be horrible or is this a Friday night into Saturday event?

models show 8-9pm for start time around your area give or take. Heaviest after midnight and into Sat AM.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

An event that by itself would probably not deserve a thread.  

Start time of the showers later today a little uncertain,  in my mind. Follow radar and updated modeling.

Rain tonight with isolated embedded heavy showers and gusty east winds to 45 mph in a few spots, especially coast.  Periods of drizzle or showers Saturday with general totals by sundown Saturday of 3/4 to 2". IFFFF, the trough sharpens enough there will be a second surge of rain late Saturday or Saturday night that would add to the totals. So isolated 4" still not impossible somewhere in the NYC subforum, but not likely.

Sunday, could be some residual drizzle or scattered showers with the weakening trough aloft, and lots of leftover clouds.

A wind advisory and coastal flood advisory is posted for parts of the coast. Still need to monitor for renewed flooding in ne NJ later tonight or Saturday. 

Please monitor NWS products. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

HEADLINE: Gale Warning issued October 29 at 8:54AM EDT until October 30 at 6:00AM EDT by NWS New York City - Upton

DESCRIPTION: ...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
* WHAT...East winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and waves
4 to 7 feet.
* WHERE...New York Harbor, including Raritan Bay and Sandy Hook
Bay.
* WHEN...From late this afternoon until 6 AM EDT Saturday.
* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could
capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

INSTRUCTIONS: Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

Issued By: NWS New York City - Upton (Long Island and New York City)
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...