Two large rain/wind events 10/25-26, 10/28-30 w probable totals by Oct 31 of 2.5-8" in the NYC subforum, damaging wind and SVR potential for one of these storms

[nycwinter]

if this was january we be screaming as the snow would be changing to rain in the city.

[mob1]

Models are backing away from the more extreme wind scenario as the main low doesn't retrograde far enough west. It does however give us a ton of rain regardless. 

[Rjay]

Euro/eps vs everything, re: a more tucked in solution 

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Euro/eps vs everything, re: a more tucked in solution 

Guess we'll see how good the upgrade was.

[mob1]

UKMET is very tucked in as well, though it doesn't show any winds as the low is basically on top of us (and occluding) before slowly drifting south. 

[Brian5671]

21 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Models are backing away from the more extreme wind scenario as the main low doesn't retrograde far enough west. It does however give us a ton of rain regardless. 

winds often overdone on these systems most times-there's always the March 2010 type event but rare.  This one looks to have flooding as the main issue.

[bluewave]

The HREF says make sure that leaves aren’t blocking your storm drains.

 

 

 

[MJO812]

40 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Euro/eps vs everything, re: a more tucked in solution 

Ukie is a crusher

[MJO812]

41 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Euro/eps vs everything, re: a more tucked in solution 

Is it possible those models are having trouble with which low will be dominant?

[qg_omega]

5 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Overnight trend was northeast instead of the tuck, GFS has been on this and Euro has been much more tucked.  Early battle on the Euro vs GFS.  I would lean GFS based off past model performance

Euro jumped east, so much for the upgrade

[MJO812]

Euro further east 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Euro jumped east, so much for the upgrade

Yep this model is going to suck again this winter 

[pstar3182]

FWIW - I'll take East over wind and flooding. 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, pstar3182 said:

FWIW - I'll take East over wind and flooding. 

It still drops 7 inches of rain over N NJ

[MJO812]

[Snowlover11]

12 minutes ago, pstar3182 said:

FWIW - I'll take East over wind and flooding. 

lol still drops a boatload of rain.

[Nibor]

Whatever foliage we have currently is gonna end up on the ground from this.

[nycsnow]

Boring with no wind. 

[Wild Turkey]

5 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Boring with no wind. 

No one needs that level of wind with the trees still full of leaves. You want Halloween cancelled again?

[nycsnow]

2 minutes ago, Wild Turkey said:

No one needs that level of wind with the trees still full of leaves. You want Halloween cancelled again?

Halloween wouldn’t be cancelled from 50mph winds imo

[BombsAway1288]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Halloween wouldn’t be cancelled from 50mph winds imo

It would from tons of uprooted trees but there would probably be enough lead time to restore order by Sunday

[nycsnow]

Just now, BombsAway1288 said:

It would from tons of uprooted trees but there would probably be enough lead time to restore order by Sunday

Ida rain did more damage in nyc then 50mph winds would do and city was back within 2 days. Some wind would really make this a high impact event with just a few inches of rain it’s not a major impact event there’s not gonna be ida rain amounts 

[bluewave]

If you ignore the 0z run, the 12z Euro is similar to 12z yesterday. Still very heavy rains area wide and possible gusts near 70mph on Eastern Long Island. The problem with winter storm tracks was suppression even a day before the storms. So we will be ahead of the game if the suppression issue is fixed. This old bias led to snowfall shifted too far south like during the January 2016 blizzard. 
 

12z today
 

12z yesterday

[nycsnow]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If you ignore the 0z run, the 12z Euro is similar to 12z yesterday. Still very heavy rains area wide and possible gusts near 70mph on Eastern Long Island. The problem with winter storm tracks was suppression even a day before the storms. So we will be ahead of the game if the suppression issue is fixed. This old bias led to snowfall shifted too far south like during the January 2016 blizzard. 
 

12z today
 

12z yesterday

What do you think for winds for nyc area 

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Boring with no wind. 

Uh ? There is going to be alot of wind 

[Will - Rutgers]

this is going to be one of those storms where someone gets 3” and says it was a bust and he gets at least five weenie reacts

[BombsAway1288]

28 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Ida rain did more damage in nyc then 50mph winds would do and city was back within 2 days. Some wind would really make this a high impact event with just a few inches of rain it’s not a major impact event there’s not gonna be ida rain amounts 

Wind threat wasn't there with Ida, just copious amounts of rain in like a 4 hour period. If the winds deliver on this one there will be tree problems, maybe not so much in the city cause its the city but in surrounding suburbs where there are more trees then there could be problems

[SnoSki14]

21 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

this is going to be one of those storms where someone gets 3” and says it was a bust and he gets at least five weenie reacts

I do see bust potential if there's any more separation. HRRR shows that.

[Will - Rutgers]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I do see bust potential if there's any more separation. HRRR shows that.

my implication being the weenies would come from people getting 6” and pumping their basements

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

If you ignore the 0z run, the 12z Euro is similar to 12z yesterday. Still very heavy rains area wide and possible gusts near 70mph on Eastern Long Island. The problem with winter storm tracks was suppression even a day before the storms. So we will be ahead of the game if the suppression issue is fixed. This old bias led to snowfall shifted too far south like during the January 2016 blizzard. 
 

12z today
 

12z yesterday

You can’t toss 0z and 6z because they don’t fit the narrative.  If the low ends up east of montauk, it’s another GFS win