Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Two large rain/wind events 10/25-26, 10/28-30 w probable totals by Oct 31 of 2.5-8" in the NYC subforum, damaging wind and SVR potential for one of these storms


wdrag
 Share

Recommended Posts

I'm not convinced the heaviest amounts are to the NE. Gfs placing heaviest rains near our area and Nam trending that way too. 

I also think the storm will tuck in a lot more as we get closer just like our winter storms have done. 

The following storm does look to carry most of the winds though. Will be a problem given heavy rains preceding it and the late start to foliage season. 

  • Like 3
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like an impressive hybrid-type development. 

 

837F7B26-E9BF-4B2D-9856-159CF3D241DE.thumb.png.74700341e6651723a54de98259518bbe.png

 

NHC still behind the curve. I think the Northern Gulf disturbance will exhibit the characteristics of weak TC much sooner than what their graphic depicts (I mean at least they finally acknowledge the potential).  The 6z GFS has a TD/STC off the southeast coast in 30 hrs. Either way break out the notes on hybrids/STC’s …

Intensity-wise, most of this passes as semantics, but the big takeaway is what this evolution would mean for track. A true tropical development would bring the surface low tucked in (north/west)…

960B223B-F8DA-4D98-953B-67951AFAEF33.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

NHC still behind the curve. I think the Northern Gulf disturbance will exhibit the characteristics of weak TC much sooner than what their graphic depicts (I mean at least they finally acknowledge the potential).  The 6z GFS has a TD/STC off the southeast coast in 30 hrs. Either way break out the notes on hybrids/STC’s …

Intensity-wise, most of this passes as semantics, but the big takeaway is what this evolution would mean for track. A true tropical development would bring the surface low tucked in (north/west)…

960B223B-F8DA-4D98-953B-67951AFAEF33.png

So that means the low can come further west ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So that means the low can come further west ?

The low level flow has an easterly component. Look at surface to 850 mb wind directions off the East coast 24-48 hrs. A non-vertically stacked (weak) TC will end up further west than a baroclinic low that is driven by upper levels. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I may adjust the title a little bit at 4PM, pending 12z/24 guidances. The adjustments would be to add inches to the title and hit the wind damage as potentially widespread by Halloween but again, nothing to overcommit quite this far in advance. These storms may seriously impact air travel along the east coast Tue-Wed morning and again Friday-Saturday. Also possible residual effects in ATL Friday??

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not convinced the heaviest amounts are to the NE. Gfs placing heaviest rains near our area and Nam trending that way too. 

I also think the storm will tuck in a lot more as we get closer just like our winter storms have done. 

The following storm does look to carry most of the winds though. Will be a problem given heavy rains preceding it and the late start to foliage season. 

warmer SST cause the tuck in

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I may adjust the title a little bit at 4PM, pending 12z/24 guidances. The adjustments would be to add inches to the title and hit the wind damage as potentially widespread by Halloween but again, nothing to overcommit quite this far in advance. These storms may seriously impact air travel along the east coast Tue-Wed morning and again Friday-Saturday. Also possible residual effects in ATL Friday??

60 mph winds and 8-10 inches of rain Walt?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • wdrag changed the title to Two large rain/wind events 10/25-26, 10/28-30 w probable totals by Oct 31 of 2.5-8" in the NYC subforum, damaging wind and SVR potential for one of these storms
  • BxEngine unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...