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Severe Weather October 10th-12th 2021


Sydney Claridge
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31 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

A lot to erode in that sounding.  Particularly, -170 J/kg of MLCIN is pretty prohibitive.  This is quite a bit higher that CAM progs at the same time.  I suspect we might have trouble getting CI anywhere away from the front/triple point.

Wouldn't cold air aloft be enough to erode the cap over time, especially near the triple point? I'm concerned about the cap keeping significant convection from developing until later this evening/tonight when the environment is becoming increasingly favorable for tornadoes.

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14 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

I doubt this will have much of an effect on things.  The really shallow high Td layer near the surface would "mix out" anyway as air parcels ascend through the boundary layer into updrafts.  What really matters is the average PBL moisture.

True, but I suspect it explains why the CINH hasn't eroded as quickly as the CAMs progged.

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Tornado Warning
OKC031-075-102330-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0023.211010T2239Z-211010T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Norman OK
539 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Comanche County in southwestern Oklahoma...
  Central Kiowa County in southwestern Oklahoma...

* Until 630 PM CDT.

* At 539 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 5 miles east of Warren, moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and tennis ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Mountain View, Roosevelt, Cooperton, Tom Steed Reservoir and
  northwestern Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room or an interior
room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you
are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest
substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3511 9875 3478 9869 3470 9914 3470 9915
      3476 9916 3476 9915 3477 9916 3479 9916
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 236DEG 28KT 3476 9912

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN

$$

..speg.
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Quote

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
GRADY AND EAST CENTRAL CADDO COUNTIES...
    
At 704 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Verden, moving 
east-northeast at 35 mph. People near Verden and near and north of 
Chickasha should take shelter now.

 

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