Gino27 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 GFS is best case scenario in my eyes. Maybe it can keep going SE?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, Gino27 said: GFS is best case scenario in my eyes. Maybe it can keep going SE?? Don't want it much more se. The heavy stuff on this run is now even se of me in knox county. Maybe 30-40 miles to feel safe. Like always still concerned with a nw shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Don't want it much more se. The heavy stuff on this run is now even se of me in knox county. I'm thinking we all want it SE for better ratios and the inevitable NW trend/warm tongue of death... even though this setup doesn't really warrant that I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gino27 said: I'm thinking we all want it SE for better ratios and the inevitable NW trend/warm tongue of death... even though this setup doesn't really warrant that I guess. I've tried to hold in excitement since 6z runs lol. Very rare potential for us. Like a once every 20 year event. Hard to not get excited seeing the runs. Even the amount shown will be underdone in areas where the heaviest bands set up. Can see someone get some 2" an hour rates for a time with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 12 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Woah. That's all of the state being pounded by high accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Woah. That's all of the state being pounded by high accumulations. It's really a win for 80% of the sub forum. Think it's best case for everyone. I'm rooting for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, dilly84 said: It's really a win for 80% of the sub forum. Think it's best case for everyone. I'm rooting for it. You can see 14 inches here...9 inches there....13 inches there... Crazy stuff. I'm hunkering down Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Woah. That's all of the state being pounded by high accumulations. Well, this particular map does include sleet so it’s inflated somewhat due to that in the south. But I liked it because it looks impressive and really screws over the typical north and west crowd. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Looks like the set up is pretty well solidified other than bumps north and south. Boils down to the million dollar question...how quickly do we changeover? Riding the taint/snow line means the bookends on this one are amything from a foot of snow to a sleetfest. Looking back, I can think of as many times that we were pleasantly surprised with a quicker changeover and many times where the changeover took forever. No idea which way yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, buckeye said: Looks like the set up is pretty well solidified other than bumps north and south. Boils down to the million dollar question...how quickly do we changeover? Riding the taint/snow line means the bookends on this one are amything from a foot of snow to a sleetfest. Looking back, I can think of as many times that we were pleasantly surprised with a quicker changeover and many times where the changeover took forever. No idea which way yet. Are they really expecting that much of a warm up to rain Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Floydbuster said: Are they really expecting that much of a warm up to rain Wednesday? Yes, the warm will surge ahead of the front. Even Chicago may start out as some rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 32 minutes ago, buckeye said: Looks like the set up is pretty well solidified other than bumps north and south. Boils down to the million dollar question...how quickly do we changeover? Riding the taint/snow line means the bookends on this one are amything from a foot of snow to a sleetfest. Looking back, I can think of as many times that we were pleasantly surprised with a quicker changeover and many times where the changeover took forever. No idea which way yet. My concern is the differences models show where the rn/sn line sets up is pretty big between them. GFS is best case but you still have the nam and rgem still pretty far north of it. Can't really see the euro, and the cmc is a bit north of the gfs as well. I'm anxiously awaiting 12z runs. Hoping nam comes in line with the gfs this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, dilly84 said: My concern is the differences models show where the rn/sn line sets up is pretty big between them. GFS is best case but you still have the nam and rgem still pretty far north of it. Can't really see the euro, and the cmc is a bit north of the gfs as well. I'm anxiously awaiting 12z runs. Hoping nam comes in line with the gfs this run Nam is pushing in the cold quicker. Looks like it's moving towards the gfs....so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 19 minutes ago, buckeye said: Nam is pushing in the cold quicker. Looks like it's moving towards the gfs....so far Nam definitely looks better, less mix more snow. Fairly significant southeast shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 12 minutes ago, buckeye said: Nam definitely looks better, less mix more snow. Fairly significant southeast shift. Most of Columbus is still shafted. Gonna need another day of model shifts like we had yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 13 minutes ago, buckeye said: Nam definitely looks better, less mix more snow. Fairly significant southeast shift. Agree. Kinda odd it didn't really show up on the clown maps. Looks more like a 10 mile shift on there but other parts of the run looked pretty significant compared to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Gino27 said: Most of Columbus is still shafted. Gonna need another day of model shifts like we had yesterday the nam making a significant shift southeast is telling. Last night it started looking like it was trending in a bad direction for us, but that turned around. At this stage, I think the trend will be our friend from here on out. Still gonna be a close one...but when aren't we riding the line? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, buckeye said: the nam making a significant shift southeast is telling. Last night it started looking like it was trending in a bad direction for us, but that turned around. At this stage, I think the trend will be our friend from here on out. Still gonna be a close one...but when aren't we riding the line? We love the line. Best thing is that I think the icing risk is reduced for Columbus area. Maybe I’ll pile up 3” of sleet like last year here on OSU campus. The snow shenanigans are always worth it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Gino27 said: We love the line. Best thing is that I think the icing risk is reduced for Columbus area. Maybe I’ll pile up 3” of sleet like last year here on OSU campus. The snow shenanigans are always worth it! worst sleet storm I recall was in Feb '94, we were sitting at 15 degrees all day with heavy sleet. I think we got 3-4" of it and then that evening it changed to freezing rain with thunderstorms. The next day people were ice skating on high street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 15 minutes ago, buckeye said: the nam making a significant shift southeast is telling. Last night it started looking like it was trending in a bad direction for us, but that turned around. At this stage, I think the trend will be our friend from here on out. Still gonna be a close one...but when aren't we riding the line? Fv3 looks crushing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf316 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 11 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Fv3 looks crushing. Is the FV3 reliable (I mean, as much as we can consider any weather model "reliable")? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, jaf316 said: Is the FV3 reliable (I mean, as much as we can consider any weather model "reliable")? Idk how reliable it is, it's a short range hi res model, but I've not followed it a bunch. I just loved the way the system looked on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf316 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Idk how reliable it is, it's a short range hi res model, but I've not followed it a bunch. I just loved the way the system looked on that run. Yup, that's some sexy weather porn right there... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Guess it's gonna be gfs vs cmc. It's a whiff for almost everyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf316 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 17 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Guess it's gonna be gfs vs cmc. It's a whiff for almost everyone. Oy, I was hoping for a little more agreement by today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, jaf316 said: Oy, I was hoping for a little more agreement by today... There is, really. Canadian decided to become an outlier today. Ukie still looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, dilly84 said: There is, really. Canadian decided to become an outlier today. Ukie still looks good yea, canadian looks like trash. Not just because it takes long to changeover, but it's pretty dry with the follow up wave. other than that, good trends. See what euro does then it's on to mesos and radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, buckeye said: yea, canadian looks like trash. Not just because it takes long to changeover, but it's pretty dry with the follow up wave. other than that, good trends. See what euro does then it's on to mesos and radar Agree. Now if euro looks like Canadian, we could have an issue. I'm hoping it comes back to its solution from a couple days ago as it was more in line with the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf316 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I will say that the GFS has been remarkably consistent over the past several runs. Canadian has been a little more all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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