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“Let’s Talk Winter”


Steve
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18 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I'd say overall very slight changes for better today.  Biggest disappointment was the ggem which was a near miss east for central OH and a small jump east with all the 500mb features.   

Sunday morning the closed low will be over the southern states.  Gonna be a nailbiter the next 2 days.  Have to dust off all the mesos and issue a radar hallucinations watch...conditions will be favorable.

Was the 500mb jump east just w/ the Canadian?

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3 hours ago, WHEATCENT said:

yeah 6z gfs and granted its long range but rap and hrrr not good at all for ohio 

Both are only good inside 12hrs imo. Extremely short range models. However, it is concerning that all the short range models basically whiff all of ohio outside of like 2". Fv3, hrrr, wrf are all bad for us. But I don't trust any of them outside of 6-12 hrs.

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3 hours ago, Gino27 said:

Seems as if a tiny difference in the stream interaction (1-3 hours) is the difference between central Ohio getting heavy totals and almost nothing. Virtually no model is accurate enough to nail that down imo. 

12z nam hammers. While gfs at 6z whiffed. Waiting 12.

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4 hours ago, WHEATCENT said:

yeah 6z gfs and granted its long range but rap and hrrr not good at all for ohio 

Although we're riding the edge in Columbus, we are pretty likely to get our first 2+" snowfall of the season.    We're going to continue to go back and forth because of where we are situated.   We're not just in the game, we'll be going into overtime.

As far as the HRRR, it's not just a joke beyond 12 hours, it's typically a joke beyond 3 hours.    That said, it shows a 985 low over the eastern panhandle of WV, I'd take that any day.:)

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37 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Although we're riding the edge in Columbus, we are pretty likely to get our first 2+" snowfall of the season.    We're going to continue to go back and forth because of where we are situated.   We're not just in the game, we'll be going into overtime.

As far as the HRRR, it's not just a joke beyond 12 hours, it's typically a joke beyond 3 hours.    That said, it shows a 985 low over the eastern panhandle of WV, I'd take that any day.:)

Beggers can’t be choosers but nonetheless disappointing. Hopefully we are in for a nice surprise though 

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32 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Beggers can’t be choosers but nonetheless disappointing. Hopefully we are in for a nice surprise though 

just keeping it real but hoping for that small bump west in the last 36 hrs that often happens especially in a setup like this.   if there was an arctic high behind it pushing in id be more concerned with an east bump.   

but we'll see:)

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29 minutes ago, buckeye said:

just keeping it real but hoping for that small bump west in the last 36 hrs that often happens especially in a setup like this.   if there was an arctic high behind it pushing in id be more concerned with an east bump.   

but we'll see:)

Was I right about 12z Goofus being a tad west w/ heavier precip at least. Maybe a tighter gradient?

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21 minutes ago, jaf316 said:

Question: is there a chance that the energy coming in behind the storm will come in faster and pull the storm further NW? 

500hv.conus.png

Yeah it's a possibility and it's what we're rooting for to happen. Need main wave to be just a tad slower and west as the second energy has been trending faster. Phasing looked best yet on this euro run, but it didn't translate down to the surface much like the NAM.

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