CoachLB Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Some sampling could take place today from roab. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 If we get screwed, it's looking like it most likely would be due to a miss east. BUT, this is the type of set up that things can change drastically in short term with all the moving parts that are still far out there. The final solution will be a result of what happens with the northern stream energy and the southern stream, how they interact, speed, strength, timing etc. This is a set up that can lead to a lot of headfakes and headaches in the short term. Still about 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, buckeye said: If we get screwed, it's looking like it most likely would be due to a miss east. BUT, this is the type of set up that things can change drastically in short term with all the moving parts that are still far out there. The final solution will be a result of what happens with the northern stream energy and the southern stream, how they interact, speed, strength, timing etc. This is a set up that can lead to a lot of headfakes and headaches in the short term. Still about 4 days out. Um, I think I like pessimistic Buckeye better. LOL 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 you guys remember in the 'olden' days when being on the northern or western fringe at 84 hrs with a system coming up from the south was a great place to be? I still feel that way. Leaving out my bias and this particular storm, if someone asked me on a any given day would I rather be riding the fringe or the rain/snow line on a setup like this, I'd pick the fringe everytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: Um, I think I like pessimistic Buckeye better. LOL We'll see where we are end of day tomorrow. Might have to release the kracken! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, buckeye said: you guys remember in the 'olden' days when being on the northern or western fringe at 84 hrs with a system coming up from the south was a great place to be? I still feel that way. Leaving out my bias and this particular storm, if someone asked me on a any given day would I rather be riding the fringe or the rain/snow line on a setup like this, I'd pick the fringe everytime. I couldn’t agree more!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Officially in the 0.00 after the 12z gfs. Was near a foot couple days ago lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This is not 24, 48, 72 hours out, it's 90 hrs. Take a deep breath and enjoy the chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, buckeye said: This is not 24, 48, 72 hours out, it's 90 hrs. Take a deep breath and enjoy the chase. How did GFS compare to its last runs? Naked eye, stopped the SE bleeding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: How did GFS compare to its last runs? Naked eye, stopped the SE bleeding? it's really close to previous run. GGEM still looks solid. 987 ends up over Harrisburg at 96hr. Nice clocking for the eastern half of Ohio 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf316 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: How did GFS compare to its last runs? Naked eye, stopped the SE bleeding? Aside from a couple very minor wobbles, 12z looks very similar to 6z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 34 minutes ago, buckeye said: you guys remember in the 'olden' days when being on the northern or western fringe at 84 hrs with a system coming up from the south was a great place to be? I still feel that way. Leaving out my bias and this particular storm, if someone asked me on a any given day would I rather be riding the fringe or the rain/snow line on a setup like this, I'd pick the fringe everytime. Well, the good news is the bleeding to the SE is slowing if not stopped. As you said, you always want to be to the NW of the heavy snow shield at this hour. And I've said it million times, I'll say it again, the primary ALWAYS hangs on longer than the modelling shows. I recall so many busted forecasts for us that happened because the primary died too slowly or not at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, JayPSU said: Well, the good news is the bleeding to the SE is slowing if not stopped. As you said, you always want to be to the NW of the heavy snow shield at this hour. And I've said it million times, I'll say it again, the primary ALWAYS hangs on longer than the modelling shows. I recall so many busted forecasts for us that happened because the primary died too slowly or not at all. It's a good point. This time around it could be our savior instead of being a warm tongue and dry slot up our butt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 not a bad look at all 96hrs out on the ukie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GEM almost hit Gulf of Mexico lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, buckeye said: not a bad look at all 96hrs out on the ukie. Pretty much a straight apps runner. Transfer happens very early on. It's really not far away from a big hit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Looks like euro went east some, but still decent for eastern half of Ohio. Biggest change I noticed was the southern vort moving much quicker and taking the turn north a little further east. Ironically still ends up over DC. Overall pretty much everything stayed the course today. Someone said new data comes in later today? Maybe we'll start to see a swing one way or the other by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, buckeye said: Looks like euro went east some, but still decent for eastern half of Ohio. Biggest change I noticed was the southern vort moving much quicker and taking the turn north a little further east. Ironically still ends up over DC. Overall pretty much everything stayed the course today. Someone said new data comes in later today? Maybe we'll start to see a swing one way or the other by tomorrow. I really don't think the Euro looks that bad at this stage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, JayPSU said: I really don't think the Euro looks that bad at this stage... I don't either. Think of it this way too, this is the second phase of the hybrid storm in the main thread....there still isn't really good model concensus on that. Kinda puts things in perspective. We need to let this playout for another 48 hrs (when it starts to take shape over the gulf states). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, buckeye said: I don't either. Think of it this way too, this is the second phase of the hybrid storm in the main thread....there still isn't really good model concensus on that. Kinda puts things in perspective. We need to let this playout for another 48 hrs (when it starts to take shape over the gulf states). My goodness what did you have for breakfast today?! Good day in the Buckeye house!!! LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 In the the olden days....the days of yore....having a storm in the deep south....such as this....often brought our best snows. It often became the prototypical apps runner. That was the olden days,,,before the snow gods developed a deep hate for Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 23 minutes ago, buckeye said: Looks like euro went east some, but still decent for eastern half of Ohio. Biggest change I noticed was the southern vort moving much quicker and taking the turn north a little further east. Ironically still ends up over DC. Overall pretty much everything stayed the course today. Someone said new data comes in later today? Maybe we'll start to see a swing one way or the other by tomorrow. I believe the new sampling was incorporated in the 12z model runs. Saw that on one of the other regional discussions. If this can go negative west or along the Mississippi river you would think Central OH on east would be in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, iluvsnow said: In the the olden days....the days of yore....having a storm in the deep south....such as this....often brought our best snows. It often became the prototypical apps runner. That was the olden days,,,before the snow gods developed a deep hate for Ohio. Also, I've been following these boards for 20 years. 99% of app runners start off modeled as an eastcoast snowstorm....including March 8. They also never get the lead time that the coasters get. Usually the concensus comes in the final 48 hours. 8 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: My goodness what did you have for breakfast today?! Good day in the Buckeye house!!! LOL let's just say I topped off my half empty glass 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, buckeye said: Also, I've been following these boards for 20 years. 99% of app runners start off modeled as an eastcoast snowstorm....including March 8. They also never get the lead time that the coasters get. Usually the concensus comes in the final 48 hours. let's just say I topped off my half empty glass A 2022 resolution nonetheless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Lol at the NAM. If only… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 we ride the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf316 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, Gino27 said: Lol at the NAM. If only… You never know -- even a broken clock is right twice a day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I know the nam 48+ and the icon are the Larry and Mo of the model suites but it's interesting that they both came dramatically nw for the same reason ...better phasing with the northern stream. Have to wonder if some new data is involved and a legit trend or just another head fake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, buckeye said: I know the nam 48+ and the icon are the Larry and Mo of the model suites but it's interesting that they both came dramatically nw for the same reason ...better phasing with the northern stream. Have to wonder if some new data is involved and a legit trend or just another head fake. There has been a subtle trend on all models to make the trough negative sooner which could help bring everything west. Time is on our side if that evolution wants to take place with new data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, buckeye said: I know the nam 48+ and the icon are the Larry and Mo of the model suites but it's interesting that they both came dramatically nw for the same reason ...better phasing with the northern stream. Have to wonder if some new data is involved and a legit trend or just another head fake. Speaking of Larry, LC said this was an apps runner a couple days ago. FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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