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MO/KS/AR/OK 2021-2022 Winter Discussion


JoMo
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23 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Very strange system for this area, digging south down the Plains across western Kansas. 

I was thinking about that earlier too.  We don’t see too many dig south from Montana/North Dakota.  

Do you recall anything similar that actually panned out for us?  I actually kind of like these clippers.  They are typically faster moving with limited moisture but we can squeak out a couple of inches.  This one seems to have more potential than usual.  

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3 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

I was thinking about that earlier too.  We don’t see too many dig south from Montana/North Dakota.  

Do you recall anything similar that actually panned out for us?  I actually kind of like these clippers.  They are typically faster moving with limited moisture but we can squeak out a couple of inches.  This one seems to have more potential than usual.  

I'm getting old, I can't remember things that well, anymore, but I'm sure it's happened before. The surface temps are very marginal, but it's cold enough to very cold as we head up into the atmosphere. The overall tilt/structure of the system is going to be important, especially when it comes to any wraparound precip. I think the Euro wasn't that impressive while the GFS was pretty impressive in that regard. It'll change as the energy for this system is still out in the Pacific and won't be over land until late Thursday it looks like.

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The Euro is much more complicated.....it shows a significant warm nose for NE Oklahoma which stops it from snowing at all. Not much change from last night's 00Z run. That being said, the 6Z and 18Z runs of the Euro use outdated upper air data, so if there's a western trend, expect it in the noon run(which I will post).

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1642291200-LqWkM2Bz3Yw.png

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6 minutes ago, JoMo said:

12z Canadian finally coming in, a bit farther NW and more QPF. 

Looks to me like the 2m temps at h84 are 3-4 degrees colder on the NAM/GFS vs the Canadian. Doesn’t matter by h90 as everyone is below freezing at that point.  
Not sure if that is a concern yet but NWA has 6-12 hours of precip above freezing (on the Canadian) before the changeover.  

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