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MO/KS/AR/OK 2021-2022 Winter Discussion


JoMo
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27 minutes ago, JoMo said:

00z GFS coming in a bit colder farther south with the New Years storm. Might be more of an ice threat for OKC/Tulsa/Joplin/Springfield/St. Louis than earlier thought if it's right. 

Models typically under do the cold air. Trend could continue but I am not sure we get much snow out of it regardless. Cold air is going to be fairly shallow for a while.  

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I think freezing drizzle is probably a big threat, especially later Saturday. That seems to be a signal on the model... even if it isn't really picking up on it with the QPF. NAM trended north. I am waiting before I get too excited. KC calling for 3-6" may be a big bust-a-rama depending on depth of cold air, too. 

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3 hours ago, MUWX said:

Euro, NAM and Canadian are showing some light snow for SWMO later this week. Not much but better than nothing. 

I'm surprised that the GFS isn't showing anything , not even rain ?
 But Springfield NWS had this to say:

National Weather Service Springfield MO
243 AM CST Mon Jan 3 2022
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

 " South to southwesterly wind gusts of up to 30 to 40 mph are
  expected at times on Tuesday.
  A fast moving system will bring the chance for light snow to
  the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Some minor
  snow accumulations will be possible."
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The system on Wed night/Thurs looks a bit moisture starved in our area, it will pick more up as it heads east. However, it's going to be cold and there's a decent amount of forcing, but it's moving quickly so I wouldn't be surprised to see an inch or two somewhere. In our immediate area, Missouri is the most likely place to see accumulating snow it looks like.  Springfield has a winter probabilities page that shows what they are thinking as far as amounts are concerned. https://www.weather.gov/sgf/winter

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After tonight's little snow shower which may accumulate an inch or two in some places, it kinda looks pretty boring winter weather wise. There will probably be somewhat of a warmup through about mid-month and then we will probably go into the deep freeze, if the ensembles are right, due to a big -EPO. 

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12 hours ago, JoMo said:

Individual storm threats are unknown at this time, but pretty much all the ensembles have a strong -EPO signal, which usually signals cold air dumping into the Plains/Eastern US.

 

Always more than 200 hours away. Wake me up when it is within range. :D I am thankful for a couple of baby snows last week. Otherwise I would be super angry at this winter. 

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9 hours ago, Wx 24/7 said:

Always more than 200 hours away. Wake me up when it is within range. :D I am thankful for a couple of baby snows last week. Otherwise I would be super angry at this winter. 

Trough is too far east unfortunately right now. Hopefully that will change enough for us to have one winter storm this winter before we reverse back to mild again 

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That Saturday storm is a weird one and has came back west quite a bit on the 00z GFS. Interesting. 

EDIT: 00z Canadian follows with a farther western track/stronger upper low. 

EDIT2: 00z Euro is farther west but weaker as well. 

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