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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook
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Honestly, I don't know if this ongoing fire situation was anything anyone could "prepare for": 

 - High density, essentially urban to suburban area (this was not isolated homes surrounded by burnable vegetation) just downwind of foothills/prairie

 - Open space, mainly grass, to the west (not forested, just prairie) where it started

 - Driest 6 months in recorded weather history for the immediate area

 - Winds coming down the canyons with widespread, prolonged gusts over 80 MPH- a little ember can go miles with that kind of wind

 - NWS assessment as late as 3 AM today was mixed as far as high wind threat- the AFDs told you how much trouble they were having with their decisions

AND IT'S FREAKING DECEMBER 30!!

Just an enormous tragedy.

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I measured 8" in a couple of places. So that's a good one, in my book. I could post pictures, but they are much like other pictures I've posted in the past. 

As for the observed snowfall graphics on Pivotalweather, it comes from the NOHRSC.  I would imagine they will have to do a correction for 24-hr snowfall amounts in Colorado, as probably some more correct values will show up on tomorrow's analysis.

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It looks like there is a chance of snow for northern Colorado on Wednesday. It will be with a WNW flow aloft. It could perhaps favor Cheyenne and western Nebraska. It's kind of one of those wait-and-see situations.

edit: 00z GFS is kind of nuts for Cheyenne to Fort Collins, hmm, 0.52" of preciptation and 11.7" of snow... 22.5:1 snow ratio. sounds high.

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16 hours ago, Chinook said:

It looks like there is a chance of snow for northern Colorado on Wednesday. It will be with a WNW flow aloft. It could perhaps favor Cheyenne and western Nebraska. It's kind of one of those wait-and-see situations.

edit: 00z GFS is kind of nuts for Cheyenne to Fort Collins, hmm, 0.52" of preciptation and 11.7" of snow... 22.5:1 snow ratio. sounds high.

12z doubled down on the nuttiness.  QPF is now up to 0.7" in the Ft Collins to Cheyenne area....and now showing over 16" snow for Ft Collins, so it is staying with it's very high ratios.  Meanwhile the Euro only shows 0.3" QPF.

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Now upper and lower Larimer County have winter storm warnings, possibly for different reasons. I think the reason for the W.S.W. for lower Larimer County is higher winds, which is kind of surprising since it isn't windy yet. It isn't snowy yet, either.

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22 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Now upper and lower Larimer County have winter storm warnings, possibly for different reasons. I think the reason for the W.S.W. for lower Larimer County is higher winds, which is kind of surprising since it isn't windy yet. It isn't snowy yet, either.

18z NAM ramped up the snow for Fort Collins, now over 8".  A pretty sizeable increase over the 12z run.  Cheyenne get's buried.  

Larimer foothills look to be in a snow hole, wedged between good amounts in both the mountains and the flatlands.

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15 minutes ago, Chinook said:

It's getting into Denver now, with 1/2 mile visibility at Erie and BJC

I am probably 2.5 miles NNE from Olde Town Arvada - been sitting in a really nice band for maybe 20 minutes now. We'll see how far south these things sink. 

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Banding is nuts. 1 inch here at 1015 PM, looks like places less than 10 miles south and west got 5-6. Mountains even more impressive, with 3 and a half inches at Loveland Ski area but a foot just a few miles away. Lake effect indeed. Maybe the Chatfield Reservoir effect? :P

 

EDIT: snow stake at bottom of Loveland Ski area says 8 inches. The SNOTEL site had 3 and a half. So ??

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Exactly my thoughts last night looking at radar.  The presentation reminded me of my years in Geauga county Ohio and the lake effect bands.  However, the banding gods did not smile upon us here, with a meager 3".  I'll take it though.  Hopefully the areas east of the foothills got more as they need it much, much more....

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I measured 4.5" last night, and this morning it didn't seem like a lot more. This morning I had to resort to measuring snow on top of snow, or snow on top of objects. So that's kind of bad. CoCoRAHS has some 4.5" values in Loveland, and also one measurement of 7.1" Most of Fort Collins had 5".

snow basins: the South Platte basin has gone from 59% of snow water equivalent on December 8th to 122% today. 129% in the Upper Colorado River basin today. Everything in the West is above 100% except for up near Great Falls, MT, and Pueblo (upper Arkansas River basin).

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