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October Discobs 2021


George BM
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Just now, yoda said:

LWX in their AFD already saying 2nd system could be a high impact event

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Next week looks like it will feature an active stretch of weather,
with two systems impacting the area over the course of the week.
Guidance is coming into relatively good agreement that a shortwave
will be situated just off to our west at the start of the period on
Monday morning. This trough and its associated surface low will
track toward the east through the day, ultimately impacting our
forecast area Monday afternoon into Monday night. A period of rain
appears likely across the area, and a few thunderstorms can`t be
completely ruled out as well, but low-level moisture and related
instability appear to be lacking somewhat with this system. If
instability were to be greater than currently modeled, there could
be a conditional threat for some stronger storms given the
impressive wind field, but that currently looks like an unlikely
outcome.

That system will progress off to our north and east on Tuesday, and
brisk northwesterly winds will filter into the area in its wake.
Upslope showers may accompany the northwesterly winds along the
Allegheny Front, but elsewhere there should be a drying trend over
the course of the day. Winds may gust to upwards of 30 mph.
Wednesday looks like a quiet day as a narrow upper level ridge
builds overhead between the two systems of interest.

The second system of interest will move into the area on Thursday.
While there`s still a decent amount of spread with respect to the
finer scale details, the general evolution on the synoptic scale is
for a potent mid-upper level trough to approach from the west as it
simultaneously takes on a negative tilt. Low pressure at the surface
is expected to track into the Great Lakes, with potentially a second
area of low pressure developing along the coast. While it is too
early to get into the finer details, this appears to be a very
dynamic system that could potentially lead to some high impact
weather. We`ll continue to monitor trends with this system over the
coming days.
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HH GFS has a max of 1 inch for our region through next weekend.

I couldn't care less about precip at this juncture. The areas where I have seeded the past week or so I am watering and it is working perfectly. Seedlings up and thriving.

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1 hour ago, IronTy said:

This damp, warm, still, overcast weather is crap. I'm getting eaten up by mosquitoes trying to stack firewood.  My neighbor the street over is still running his loud ass pool pump for crying out loud.  

Ha our pool is still open too. 
 

Sun is out up here after a cool cloudy morning 

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1 hour ago, mappy said:

Ha our pool is still open too. 
 

Sun is out up here after a cool cloudy morning 

It's heresy.  In Michigan we closed our pool in August.  I guess with the -PNA people will be leaving the pool open all year from now in.  

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48 minutes ago, H2O said:

Mix of sun and clouds here.  Decent temps to do stuff around the yard.  

Yup, raking leaves and more acorn cleanup in the driveway. Third acorn cleanup this fall on my driveway and each time I fill up a garbage container with acorns. More annoying than leaves I think. 

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Yup, raking leaves and more acorn cleanup in the driveway. Third acorn cleanup this fall on my driveway and each time I fill up a garbage container with acorns. More annoying than leaves I think. 

Dump them in the woods, don’t trash them! 

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16 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Dump them in the woods, don’t trash them! 

We a few pin oaks and this time of the year the squirrels will toss those acorns down at you!  They sting from 60'!

Those showers yesterday seemingly came out of nowhere and certainly did dump on us here!  I was in the woods on an ATV and felt a huge drop on my face and thought it was a "gift" from one of our larger feathered friends.  As soon as I emerged from the heavy canopy it was a full fledged downpour.  That was my cue to haul ass back to the shop since I had tools outside!  Guess I need to check radarscope more often.

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seems to be some growing potential for the Tuesday deep offshore low to loop back to the south/southwest, which opens the door to rain rotating back into our area during the afternoon, likely accompanied by some stiff winds.    This is after the likelihood of heavy convective rains Monday evening.      And with the potential for a big soaker Friday/Saturday, this will be a much-needed wet week.

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Eastern NJ up into SNE looks to get clobbered pretty good with heavy rain from this event. Close call for our area, and even here not sure I will see the 1-2" in the forecast. The coastal low looks to form late and track a bit too far offshore, which is always tricky at our latitude wrt to getting in on the good precip. This is like training for what is likey to come this winter lol.

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9 hours ago, CAPE said:

Eastern NJ up into SNE looks to get clobbered pretty good with heavy rain from this event. Close call for our area, and even here not sure I will see the 1-2" in the forecast. The coastal low looks to form late and track a bit too far offshore, which is always tricky at our latitude wrt to getting in on the good precip. This is like training for what is likey to come this winter lol.

So tell me again why predicting mediocrity this winter is unreasonable? Lol This is typical nina!

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So tell me again why predicting mediocrity this winter is unreasonable? Lol This is typical nina!

I am on record stating median snowfall is a reasonable expectation. Maybe Bomb Cyclone II will happen and track a little closer.

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