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NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022


PhineasC
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48 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Definitely did not have this cold last year.  The funny thing is how normal it's becoming all the sudden.  You wake up and it's like well it's well below zero again.  This morning was the coldest yet though.

We sometimes get those January doldrums where arctic air moves in and we’re just under cold, dry high pressure for a week or more, but this January hasn’t felt like that so far.  At least here in our area, it’s felt like the occasional subzero type of day, but the northern stream still has systems coming through giving us precipitation – and variations in temperature with warm-ups on the front side of systems.  I wouldn’t say they’ve been very robust systems the past few days since Izzy departed on Tuesday, but fortunately, we’ve at least had breaks in the cold.

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58 minutes ago, alex said:

I’d have to look through the pws records but I believe it was -35.5 3 or 4 years ago 

I've been lucky enough a couple times where we stayed in your area over the years and it hit -35 twice, brutal, bone chilling cold. Things make noise that shouldn't at that temp. Coldest I've ever experienced.

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On 1/20/2022 at 5:49 PM, PhineasC said:

Clipper next week looks good for NNE but I can see why the SNE gang is not talking about it.

 

23 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Looks like the northern stream will be active through the end of the month at least.

 

22 hours ago, PhineasC said:

NNE favorable spots could cash in 3-5 with something like this.

 

21 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Or so your southern stream system doesn't mess up our northern stream refresher system. :) 

 

9 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The clipper for midweek looks a little anemic on the globals now, but we will see what the mesos do with it. Looks like 2” or so at the moment. Then we see what the bomb next weekend does. Not much else on the models right now. Things do look to get active in the extended, but that may change. 

Between skiing and work I’ve been a bit busy this week to comment much on the pattern, although if there was a really strong bread and butter look in the modeling, I probably would have squeezed in the time.  There’s been a little something on the models for tomorrow, and then another northern stream system shown for Tuesday, but beyond that, there isn’t anything suggested until around next weekend, and that seems a bit indeterminate at this point because there could be some phasing.  When we’re in those really solid bread and butter patterns up here, we’ll have something come through just about every other day, and some of them will show those robust signals for precipitation along the spine of the Northern Greens.  So, it’s not a horrible bread and butter pattern by any means, but it’s not necessarily worth pulling out the artisan bread icon, probably more like something in the range of white bread as currently modeled.

 WhiteBread.jpg.2cd17320a582472d65cb88957c5ea460.jpg

Not that we’d mind if that potential phasing shown farther out in the models produced another something like Izzy, but putting too much reliance on those types of systems means you’re jumping into that SNE game of Russian roulette.  Actually, assuming the bullet is the “undesired outcome” with the way some of the weenies start latching onto fantasy modeling so far out in time, the game they play is really more like some form of reverse Russian roulette, with five rounds in the cylinder and just one empty.

ReverseRussianRoulette.thumb.jpg.b02660500f49a377a969d4f0a4760bc9.jpg

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

lol that's solid.

Car did not like turning over.  Been holding around -24F to -26F on the local stations.  MVL looks to have dipped to -27F. 

2139166097_Jan22.jpg.7a4cf2c09bb2e29f14270f82c41bf664.jpg

Woke up at 2:15 this morning, so I went out and started the pickup and let it run about 10 minutes.  No problem starting it at 7:15 (-29 then) to go to the monthly men's fellowship breakfast.

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2 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

I've been lucky enough a couple times where we stayed in your area over the years and it hit -35 twice, brutal, bone chilling cold. Things make noise that shouldn't at that temp. Coldest I've ever experienced.

Used to it by now but the noises are definitely weird. Especially decks - they make these sounds like the boards are popping out of place or something. And cars steer very differently. That said, glad to say the Tesla is handling it like a champ!

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

J. Spin busting out the bread and guns pattern talk!

Actually, the 12Z CMC run does show some improved bread and butter pacing – there are potential systems coming through for tomorrow, Tuesday, Friday, and then Monday.  With those four systems over that span, that’s getting pretty close to that every other day sort of interval we see when the northern branch is active and sending through the moisture.  I find that the GFS is better than the CMC in terms of giving the best prognostication for these systems at relatively long lead times, and the models don’t really agree on the latter two systems (probably because of some potential phasing and/or pacing differences).  So, one can’t put much stock in those latter two systems yet, but seeing what the CMC shows suggests some potential with our favorite jet stream.

1732522922_BreadButter4.jpg.0b58737ae820d89ef1575e80a85a6e51.jpg

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41 minutes ago, alex said:

Used to it by now but the noises are definitely weird. Especially decks - they make these sounds like the boards are popping out of place or something. And cars steer very differently. That said, glad to say the Tesla is handling it like a champ!

Have you noticed if the cold reduces range?

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59 minutes ago, alex said:

Used to it by now but the noises are definitely weird. Especially decks - they make these sounds like the boards are popping out of place or something. And cars steer very differently. That said, glad to say the Tesla is handling it like a champ!

In Fort Kent we'd hear the s drywall nails popping at -30 or colder as the wood behind them shrunk.  Sometimes the nail heads would push out thru the spackle a bit.  (Of course, modern drywall is usually fastened with screws.)

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Looking at the preliminary monthly data for VT sites, BTV is -4.8, St. J and Morrisville are -3.7 and Springfield is -2.2. MPV and RUT are right on normal. Does it seem a little odd there is that much disparity? I guess outside of BTV UHI-like warmth, I would have expected the norms to be a little more bunched. 

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20 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Looking at the preliminary monthly data for VT sites, BTV is -4.8, St. J and Morrisville are -3.7 and Springfield is -2.2. MPV and RUT are right on normal. Does it seem a little odd there is that much disparity? I guess outside of BTV UHI-like warmth, I would have expected the norms to be a little more bunched. 

It's hard to get that far below normal at BTV these days.  That's pretty impressive.  Seems like a pretty good gradient from N to S.

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42 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I have a pellet stove. I haven’t fired it up in a few years though and I had to throw my ash vac out last spring after it rusted out in my basement.

Just as good, much cheaper than oil, one year I spent over 4k in oil, don't remember the year but oil was high and it was cold so I got a wood stove, $1k for wood per year and one tank of oil and I use oil for my water heater. Some years wood is free if I'm willing to cut, split and stack so I save even more.

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I hadn’t had a chance to post any images from my Tuesday ski session yet, but after the backside snows from Winter Storm Izzy, it was down in the single digits F, so touring seemed like the call.  I ended up touring down at Timberline because the snowpack is pretty substantial even down to 1,500’.  The parking lot hadn’t been plowed, but there were several cars in the lot from others who were touring there, and the traffic had packed down the snow enough to get around reasonably with 4WD/AWD.  I checked the snow depth in various spots on both the ascent and descent, and my best estimates of overall settled snowpack depth at that point were ~18” at 1,500’, ~22” at 2,000’ and ~24” at 2,500’.  I’ve got a few shots from that outing below.  We actually toured today starting all the way down at 1,200’ and even that was fine.  I’ll pass along some images from that session when I get a chance.

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18JAN22C.thumb.jpg.bee27276b876b7e783e24d3705239915.jpg

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