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NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022


PhineasC
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I got an alert this morning that we’ve been put under a Winter Weather Advisory for the upcoming storm.  The current forecast in this area suggests the system starts as snow, then incorporates some mixed precipitation the farther west you are, and then transitions back to snow.  Forecasts for accumulations in the local elevations are generally in the 3-6”, with the larger portion of that on the back side vs. the front side.  It should be a nice refresher with a modest addition of liquid equivalent for the local slopes either way, but we’ll have to see how much any mixed precipitation affects the quality of the conditions.  We’ll see what adjustments are done at the afternoon update, but the current BTV NWS maps for this storm are below:

24DEC21A.jpg.63cece17c8c1106d414e464a18f2e4ba.jpg

24DEC21B.thumb.jpg.2de15cda5f4219c84ebb384caaec9952.jpg

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26 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

More rain on Wednesday, Xmas week falling apart for the mountains

Not sure I’d say that-Tomorrow should be a net gain for the Whites and Maine, and that storm mid-late next week looks like a mixed bag at worst right now. 
 

Looks tough for southern VT, I’ll grant you that. 

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13 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah, was just "reminiscing" about how last winter this time we were staring down the barrel of the grinch storm and the models had another huge cutter lined up for New Year's Eve.

That was a total wipe out last year, That one i will never forget, Worst grinch ever.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Ha ha, There is still time, Probably the AFD later they will update.

I suspect so, there's some model agreement. Even 2" will be a nice refresher. GFS and euro both hint at doing it again wed-thurs. 4-7 over the next week would be a great win in this pattern. 

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5 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

I suspect so, there's some model agreement. Even 2" will be a nice refresher. GFS and euro both hint at doing it again wed-thurs. 4-7 over the next week would be a great win in this pattern. 

As bad as the pattern has been, It could've been worse, At least we have some snow pack, Last year, We got wiped out.

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2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Ha ha, There is still time, Probably the AFD later they will update.

Hope so.  The only places with <1" for 'expected" are EEN, ASH and MBY (actually Farmington).  First 2 are likely P-type issues.  Not sure how BLM and North Conway show more than here.  However, those 16 CWA stations for GYX are all showing a minor event; I'd be slightly bummed if the respective forecast amounts were in single or double digits with the lowest for here.

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5 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Hope so.  The only places with <1" for 'expected" are EEN, ASH and MBY (actually Farmington).  First 2 are likely P-type issues.  Not sure how BLM and North Conway show more than here.  However, those 16 CWA stations for GYX are all showing a minor event; I'd be slightly bummed if the respective forecast amounts were in single or double digits with the lowest for here.

Nothing better then some snow on Christmas Day, Precip, Kind of dies off as it moves east on the models as low pressure slips off the coast to the SE.

StormTotalSnowWeb1.jpg

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