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NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022


PhineasC
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Event totals: 4.0” Snow/0.10” L.E.

 

These above totals should be it for this event – the streamers seemed to wind down last night around 1:00 A.M. and the sky is just partly cloudy now.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 60.0

Snow Density: 1.7% H2O

Temperature: 21.7 F

Sky: Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 2.5 inches

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13 hours ago, J.Spin said:

LOL, yea, that’s apparently been the latest weenie attempt at a pejorative for the mountain climates.  The whole effort is obvious, but whatever helps entertain them through the drudgery I guess.

Fake snow and fake cold.  Except the fake snow looks great and the skis slide over it nicely.  And the battery in my pickup doesn't realize the cold is fake when I start the vehicle.

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Just now, MRVexpat said:

lo-res NAM nasomuch. GFS coming back online as well

Seems the higher-end solutions depend on a low popping in the GOM and curving back as it heads NE. That enhances the synoptic and upslope components. 00z Euro last night had this, along with the 12z 3k and 12z GFS. We will see if the 12z Euro does it.

The difference between a 2-4 deal and maybe 8+ in spots?

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C.Lahiff crushing the AFD this afternoon.

“Honing in on the main upslope event which goal posts Friday afternoon through the first half of Saturday with the bulk of it really being through sunrise Saturday. In collaboration with WPC today diagnosing the 12Z models, we`ve disregarded the latest NAM output with little run to run consistency which seems to not handle the strong downstream blocking as well as the global models are. Leaning more on the GFS/ECMWF, the close northeast proximity of the surface to mid-level circulation and moist wraparound ascent continues to favor the upslope regions of the Adirondacks and more impressively in the north-central Greens and the NE Kingdom where Froude values are near critical. Once the sun sets, we should see snow accumulations make it to the valley floor with 1-2"/hr rates across the higher terrain through the night. Additionally, gusty winds continue to look likely overnight into Saturday as cold advection aloft will maintain well-mixed conditions with the potential for gusts up to 25-35 mph. Poor travel conditions will be likely in many areas with snow and blowing snow, especially over the mountain gap roads. As far as snow totals go, there remains a high likelihood for 12-18" along the spine of the Greens from Mt. Ellen to Mansfield to Jay Peak with 6+" possible along the western slopes of the Adirondacks and eastern Addison/Chittenden/Franklin counties of Vermont as well as portions of the Northeast Kingdom. Given the jump back upward in QPF with the 12Z model cycle, collaboration with WPC and GYX leads us to hold off on any watches at this point.

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