Witness Protection Program Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The occasional Weather Channel is calling for .25-.75 inches of ice on the north side of DFW. Much of DFW is still supplied by overhead lines, passing through Don't Touch My Beautiful Trees NIMBYhoods, so if that forecast verifies there's a high likelihood of significant outages. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 18z NAM is like - oh sure I agree with y'all! (GFS, CMC, etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Winter Storm Watch issued for much of North Texas down to Hillsboro, including DFW. Waco is not included at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWineman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Did the grocery store run, firewood pick up happens tomorrow. I'm hoping for more of the cobblestone 2013 storm and less of a ice storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 holy moly ~ the FR QPF on both 12z GFS and NAM is simply mind-blowing and put DFW in the center of the mess. I wonder if anyone remember what was the forecast data leading upto the cobblestone 2013 storm. This has some real potential to surpass that! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Beyond the big storm Thursday, the upper low Saturday has sneaky potential to lay down a white cover to the ice. GEFS starting to show snow on a few panels Saturday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 FFS. The 06z runs are the worst yet for ice. Widespread 0.50"+ freezing rain across *ALL* THE Metroplex. And that's not including the sleet on top of it. What a ****ing disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Powerball said: FFS. The 06z runs are the worst yet for ice. Widespread 0.50"+ freezing rain across *ALL* THE Metroplex. And that's not including the sleet on top of it. What a ****ing disaster. I did book a room though. I'm not getting caught without power like I did last time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I did book a room though. I'm not getting caught without power like I did last time.Like a hotel room? How you know they will have power if you don'tSent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 28 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: Like a hotel room? How you know they will have power if you don't Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk They had it last February. There are some hotels (though not many) that have backup generators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Looking at the 6Z GFS and temps, tiny temp differences means everything between damaging amounts of freezing rain and less dangerous sleet in the Metroplex. FWD AFD mentioned ice accumulating above 28F because wind is removing heat from surfaces and rain. There was a post yesterday to that effect. Does an NWS met secretly visit the forum? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Even 6Z Euro if a degree or two F too warmer than reality is a big deal. 12Z mesos should be getting into range for at least Wednesday night into Thursday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The 6z models this morning of freezing rain amounts are getting into Ice Storm Warning criteria. Definitely think the Watch will get upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning as early as this afternoon, but certainly by tomorrow morning if trends continue with some counties maybe upgraded to an Ice Storm Warning. I am also growing concerned of severe cold Friday and Saturday morning into the Metroplex (ie. temps down to 10°F or lower), so we may be dealing with Hard Freeze Warnings also. The main point is models are trending colder with the the 32°F line on average expected 3 hours earlier than yesterday, approximately 9PM ish for KDFW Wed evening. ***12z NAM forecasting almost 1.00 inch of freezing rain for the Metroplex.*** 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, DFWWeather said: The 6z models this morning of freezing rain amounts are getting into Ice Storm Warning criteria. Definitely think the Watch will get upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning as early as this afternoon, but certainly by tomorrow morning if trends continue with some counties maybe upgraded to an Ice Storm Warning. I am also growing concerned of severe cold Friday and Saturday morning into the Metroplex (ie. temps down to 10°F or lower), so we may be dealing with Hard Freeze Warnings also. The main point is models are trending colder with the the 32°F line on average expected 3 hours earlier than yesterday, approximately 9PM ish for KDFW Wed evening. ***12z NAM forecasting almost 1.00 inch of freezing rain for the Metroplex.*** 12z HRW actually has KDFW cross 32F right after 6PM. That's crazy. But I personally don't know too much about the background or track record on that model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, DFWWeather said: ***12z NAM forecasting almost 1.00 inch of freezing rain for the Metroplex.*** At least 12z and 6z GFS dialed that down a little bit from yesterday. About 10-20% using Collin Ct as a benchmark. Let's hope that's a trend. Otherwise, significant power outage is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: At least 12z and 6z GFS dialed that down a little bit from yesterday. About 10-20% using Collin Ct as a benchmark. Let's hope that's a trend. Otherwise, significant power outage is likely. GFS might have dialed down the amounts in Collin County on the 06z run, but it also bumped them up drastically for the rest of the Metroplex. I haven't seen the 12z run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 12 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: At least 12z and 6z GFS dialed that down a little bit from yesterday. About 10-20% using Collin Ct as a benchmark. Let's hope that's a trend. Otherwise, significant power outage is likely. The NAM incorporates the GFS with higher resolution built into it. I would go with the NAM over the GFS. It is very concerning that the NAM is going with that much freezing rain. The 12z GFS is pretty bad with nearly 1/2 an inch of freezing rain. That is a lot of ice folks! It also is showing 1.5 to 2.0 inches of sleet on top of that for Dallas and Tarrant Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 12 km NAM isn't super high resolution anymore by modern mesoscale standards. And maybe weenie casting, I don't know why it would be, but 3 km NAM looks a smidge too warm by early morning Thursday, especially for the higher res. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 17 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 12 km NAM isn't super high resolution anymore by modern mesoscale standards. And maybe weenie casting, I don't know why it would be, but 3 km NAM looks a smidge too warm by early morning Thursday, especially for the higher res. I meant in relation to the GFS. It does a much better job of handling low level cold air. I bet the temp adjust on the 3km as it is just coming into range. NAM always starts off a little warm when coming into range then adjusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, DFWWeather said: The NAM incorporates the GFS with higher resolution built into it. I would go with the NAM over the GFS. It is very concerning that the NAM is going with that much freezing rain. The 12z GFS is pretty bad with nearly 1/2 an inch of freezing rain. That is a lot of ice folks! It also is showing 1.5 to 2.0 inches of sleet on top of that for Dallas and Tarrant Counties. True! I'm not in this profession but do watch wx closely. I don't think I've ever seen that much of FR for DFW. I experienced 2013 cobblestone (with 2-day power outage) but I didn't check the data prior to that. My guess is this could be as bad as that one if NAM holds true. Sorry if this is a bit off-topic. But last year we were lucky didn't have any power issue in the February storm. However I think that was a controlled outage and we're probably on the same section with a large hospital. This time if it gets too icy, powerline comes down regardless and may take a lot longer to recover. I wonder how would y'all get prepared in this case (other than what NWS suggested ofc)? Especially those of you had power issue last year, what can be realistically done differently? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 12z GFS with very concerning freezing rain accumulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: True! I'm not in this profession but do watch wx closely. I don't think I've ever seen that much of FR for DFW. I experienced 2013 cobblestone (with 2-day power outage) but I didn't check the data prior to that. My guess is this could be as bad as that one if NAM holds true. Sorry if this is a bit off-topic. But last year we were lucky didn't have any power issue in the February storm. However I think that was a controlled outage and we're probably on the same section with a large hospital. This time if it gets too icy, powerline comes down regardless and may take a lot longer to recover. I wonder how would y'all get prepared in this case (other than what NWS suggested ofc)? Especially those of you had power issue last year, what can be realistically done differently? Thanks! I've lived through several terrible ice storms in DFW. I'm not old enough (thankfully) to remember the event that occurred in Fort Worth in late January early Febraury 1949. 4 days of not-stop freezing rain and drizzle caused ice to accrete 7 inches thick. Also our temp dropped to -2°F with that event. That is the worst ice storm in Metroplex history. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 17 minutes ago, David-LI said: 12z GFS with very concerning freezing rain accumulations. 12z NAM is even more concerning with Collin and Denton at 1.3". The FR band is merely 200 miles wide but dramatically DFW is right in the middle ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, vwgrrc said: True! I'm not in this profession but do watch wx closely. I don't think I've ever seen that much of FR for DFW. I experienced 2013 cobblestone (with 2-day power outage) but I didn't check the data prior to that. My guess is this could be as bad as that one if NAM holds true. Sorry if this is a bit off-topic. But last year we were lucky didn't have any power issue in the February storm. However I think that was a controlled outage and we're probably on the same section with a large hospital. This time if it gets too icy, powerline comes down regardless and may take a lot longer to recover. I wonder how would y'all get prepared in this case (other than what NWS suggested ofc)? Especially those of you had power issue last year, what can be realistically done differently? Thanks! 1. If you own a home, buy a generator. 2. Find a friend/relative with power to stay with. 3. Stay at a hotel with power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, David-LI said: 12z GFS with very concerning freezing rain accumulations. That is slightly less bad than the 06z run, fortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 11 minutes ago, Powerball said: That is slightly less bad than the 06z run, fortunately. True but unfortunately that stops with GFS. Both 12z NAM and Euro are suggesting more compared to yesterday. Very very concerning since I feel NAM is a stronger model at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 WRF is extremely fast with the cold and gets me down to low 20s by Thu morning. I think that is likely overdone but it does illustrate that the potential is there even far SE of DFW for a major winter storm. I think DFW is under 0.25" ice, 1 to 2" sleet and 1 to 4" snow with 6" possible for far northwestern DFW. I expect worst ice to be from Athens to Canton to Mt Pleasant where accretion may be pushing 0.5" for transition to sleet and snow. Ice line may make it down to a College Station to Marshall line. Below that only expect rain mixed with sleet late Thu and again Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The good news is 18z HRRR just came in. It seems less scary than NAM at 12z. But I don't know how those 2 compared in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 17 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: The good news is 18z HRRR just came in. It seems less scary than NAM at 12z. But I don't know how those 2 compared in this case. True, but when you compare the 18z HRRR with the 12z HRRR run, there was a significant increase in ice amounts (widespread 0.50"+ amounts in the northern/eastern suburbs, and widespread 0.25"+ amounts elsewhere). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, Powerball said: True, but when you compare the 18z HRRR with the 12z HRRR run, there was a significant increase in ice amounts (widespread 0.50"+ amounts in the northern/eastern suburbs, and widespread 0.25"+ amounts elsewhere). Same on 18z NAM as well. It's now only 33hr out but the QPF almost doubled. Is this even right?? It's also notable the FR band seems moving NW quite a bit compared to 12z. Does this mean it may put DFW out of the core area is very worth watching out for! Edit: 18z NAM mostly consistent with 12z. I wonder if we need an Ice Storm Warning soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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