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2021 Mid-Atlantic First Freeze Contest


WxUSAF
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@nw baltimore wx hit BWI exactly.  @BristowWx, @RIC Airport, and @yoda missed BWI by 1.  

 

@nw baltimore wx and @RIC Airport clearly in the lead now.  Both are going to miss RIC (11/4 and 11/6, respectively), but they have a wide gap on DCA (11/30 and 11/15).  I think @mappy, @yoda, and @tplbge also have a shot depending on when RIC and DCA hit.  

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An interesting end to the contest awaits.  If DCA gets to freezing tomorrow morning, @RIC Airport will win.  @yoda will win if DCA waits to Saturday, while @mappy will win if it's next Wednesday.  I tested those dates based on today's 12z GFS, but a lot of variance here with a big swing in results.  Actually, our group MEAN forecast will actually win for the later 2 dates (Saturday and next Wednesday and probably most dates in between).  

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On 11/15/2021 at 5:04 PM, WxUSAF said:

An interesting end to the contest awaits.  If DCA gets to freezing tomorrow morning, @RIC Airport will win.  @yoda will win if DCA waits to Saturday, while @mappy will win if it's next Wednesday.  I tested those dates based on today's 12z GFS, but a lot of variance here with a big swing in results.  Actually, our group MEAN forecast will actually win for the later 2 dates (Saturday and next Wednesday and probably most dates in between).  

Friday night will do it.  I have foreseen it

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On 11/15/2021 at 5:04 PM, WxUSAF said:

An interesting end to the contest awaits.  If DCA gets to freezing tomorrow morning, @RIC Airport will win.  @yoda will win if DCA waits to Saturday, while @mappy will win if it's next Wednesday.  I tested those dates based on today's 12z GFS, but a lot of variance here with a big swing in results.  Actually, our group MEAN forecast will actually win for the later 2 dates (Saturday and next Wednesday and probably most dates in between).  

DCA is 33 right now... so it's close lol

If it's Monday night or Tuesday night... does @mappy win or do I?

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@WxUSAF would know better than me, but if DCA finally dips to freezing tomorrow morning, I think @wxdude64 would sneak in for the win.  If it's not until Wednesday morning, then @mappy wins.  And finally, in the unlikely event that the corn dust shield holds up until the weekend or our locked-in clipper early next week, then it's drinks on me.

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