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October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow


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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

The 12z ICON might finally be enough rain for some drought stricken areas of Maine. 

Lava Rock will complain he only got 4” of rain when models were saying 6”.  That will be enough though to wash away any bits of lawn he managed to start growing. Next spring he starts with bare ground again. 

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Mowed and mulched first small dead leaves as soon as the wind picked up  we covered again. Heavy rain and wind next week and it's on to mostly stick season cept for the oaks. I was watching Snowtober film and noticed how much greener the leaves were. 

At least a little color is popping 

20211023_141921.jpg

20211023_143223.jpg

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This thing is also jumping around in the Euro guidance, ranging from ALB to southern NH to SE of ISP in the last 3 runs.

Haven't detailed the other guidance..

But the lack of lower tropospheric baroclinicity isn't given the low genesis an anchor point ...the models are getting chaotic about where to put it over time.

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As a winter storm enthusiast about to reentry into that season ... one should be happy that we are "setting a precedence for coastals" earlier on.

At least per may experience - seasons that do that tend to parlay toward more of it as the cold season maturates.  

That may chap the asses of La Nina -centric seasonal footed outlooks... but it doesn't have to be true every autumn into winter, either.

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It's interesting if not predictable watching that later 'big red spot' vortex start dampening out like that. 

I wondered this yesterday, if that thing might start devolving/morphing into something else.  I mean it's not atypical for a double dong mid range to start favoring one end or the other as dominant ...   Maybe that's happening here.

Also, tough to ignore the emerging PNA look to the extended.  EPS and GEFs appear in line for at least modest +PNAP, if perhaps in spite of La Nina.  Although as we've noted, La Nina's tend to front load so ...heh, maybe we're on the verge of a rare Thanks Giggedy to Xmas winter ...followed by a January thaw+ CC signal, ...followed by a big blizzard bust in early February, before the annual 83 F on Feb 15 -

yup ... that's the seasonal outlook. Forget the dissertations of peregrinated graphs and prose, and just go with that one run-on sentence. 

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NAM may be too far N-W with that surface/lower troposphere but as is ...that 18z run is an interesting QPF scenario .. hearkens to 2006 May - though not synoptically analogous per se but the stalled CCB/WCB intersect that elevating the later into a back bent/TROWALing, bear some similarity nonetheless.  And, over-top a forced ascent up-slope flow into the eastern whites would probably double that QPF it's already painting if that evolved that way.

Thing about 2006 is that it was maybe 2 or 3 weeks out of cap melt and the shed was still heavy when that stalling/similarity took place. So.. prooobably doesn't result the same but ... at this time of year, the October variant may also be operating off a denser PWAT inject so -

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Give me this from last week of November until Mid March and I will show you white.

20211023_165522.jpg

We’re setting up for a fast and fun opening similar to 1995 which was also warm deep into October.  I remember meeting a friend for dinner in Central square around Columbus Day.  I rode over from Brookline Village on my bike sweating profusely with temperatures in the 80s that day.

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