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October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow


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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The weed smoke turning everything green as you rip bongs in backyard 

That would turn it brown, Chemistry 101. Bongs are so 1990s though…move forward bud. Your area will have dispensaries soon. The future is coming, start massaging your neuroticism’s now or you’ll be the old geezer on your block yapping how the world is not what it used to be.

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5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Other than a day or two around Monday, we mild. Ray is gonna have a jungle when he comes back to mow. 

Gosh ...I admittedly thought this one had more staying power in the model runs, too.

This has been going on for years frankly ... I don't know when this started - or if frankly it is somehow CC mucking with the "technology-grid" of modeling operations et al ..etc, but routinely a cold air mass in the extended outlooks... normalizes getting to short term. Durations shrink by delay and earlier back-end roll-outs, and 850 mb scalar values start arriving less cold overall.    

What I try to do is match the operational "lies" with telecon spreads - but the latter isn't a snap shot application, either. The trends and their own verifications are included in that.  This cool down next week had that. 

Didn't matter this time.  Interesting... At this rate of on-going trends, that is no different than the last 2 days, which by and large failed to frost. It's an interesting thing to have a -NAO post October 15 ... challenged to frost in New England.  Granted the PNA has been modestly negative but the pattern looks PNA neutral, and the progs are showing it as rising. Not sure that's much/how much of a factor

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not New England where we live . Who cares about The Dakotas 

Growing season is over in all of NNE and it's over in most of MA too....so they won't issue any advisories in those spots going forward.

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Just on an early wienersChnitzel goof ...

what are the latest date of a first frost records for HFD/ORH/PVD/BOS/CON/ ...ETC  ?

Do you mean 36F? Official frosts are not tracked...they use 36F as the marker, but we all know 36F comes in many different flavors and many won't produce frost.

Freeze is a lot easier...it's just first date of 32F

 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Growing season is over in all of NNE and it's over in most of MA too....so they won't issue any advisories in those spots going forward.

Cold isn't the whole story...

Plants need cyclic gestation, and can't do it in perpetuity like that.  Even tropical plants have fruiting and dormancy intervals that oscillate. 

A lot of annuals that people plant for garden hobbies need more sun than tepid slope insolation and will tend to cease growth production. 

I mean if one wants to define the end of growing season as a hard lined 28 F ice in the bird bath morning than that's fine two.. but by and large, nothing is pragmatically growing anyway.   Lawns are green, but the actual growth has slowed down around here anyway - as a direct evidence of this. So while not a hard stopped, ...it's is over for all intents and purposes

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Do you mean 36F? Official frosts are not tracked...they use 36F as the marker, but we all know 36F comes in many different flavors and many won't produce frost.

Freeze is a lot easier...it's just first date of 32F

 

Yeah... good insight - I was really thinking 32F

but I suppose for posterity ... latest that a car topped glowed but no one or agency really has that ...least I don't think. Lol

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... good insight - I was really thinking 32F

but I suppose for posterity ... latest that a car topped glowed but no one or agency really has that ...least I don't think. Lol

Latest 32F by station:

BOS: 12/6 (2009)

ORH: 11/12 (1977)

BDL: 11/11 (1920)

PVD: 11/19 (1935)

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