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2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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I have that worry about the Nam as well but since the upgrade it has been an absolute putrid model. It used to be amped and juiced and now it’s as dry as the Sahara. I don’t buy it’s precip or Synoptics not one bit. The one thing I do buy tho is it’s thermals and THAT is what is making me have some reservations. With the low cutting to Dollywood that of course is going to screw up the thermals so it’s almost like a wash in some way. Idk man My goal post was 6”. May have to temper that down to 4” with the expectation I would be pleasantly surprised in the end. 

Down to 34/24 and it feels bone chilling out there. 

 

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Clown show at nws_GSP. They've had Clemson go from 4-6 to 2-4 to Trace to 2-3 and now 1-2.

The whole time models have supported 2-4 inches and honestly they have not wavered at all, and if anything I  would say they support more like 3-5 forecast at this point.

I'm starting to think there are some guys working there that like to forecast snow, and other guys who come in for a new shift that love to slash totals... wash, rinse, repeat. lol

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6 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Well hopefully literally all the modeling is more accurate than GSP's new forecast... From 12-18 when the watch first came out down to 3-4....StormTotalSnow.thumb.jpg.dee6b8f352faa9f283c82ee24d9d4b00.jpg

Wow what happen everything I seen so far from afternoon guidance shows me in morganton getting around 4-6inches. Seems like they think this is just going to be a ICE storm now for almost everyone even the mtns. Those totals up there got cut a good 8 inches or more.

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1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

RGEM still looks solid. NWS is basically taking the 3KM NAM (least snowy model) and predicting that will happen

 

Gosh, even the 3km gives me 10 inches Kuchera. I know some of that is sleet but I can't find an ounce of model support for those cuts in SW NC/Northern Upstate/far NE GA. The 18z 3k went back towards a snowier solution at that.

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