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October 2021


Stormlover74
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5 hours ago, gravitylover said:

And I'm wearing a flannel because 60 and mist is unpleasant. If it gets too much cooler here in the house I may have to turn the heat on even if just to dry it out some.

I turned on the a/c to get rid of the humidity and the allergens.  Come up with a plan to nuke all back door fronts and I'll back you financially

 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

my house temp was 83.4 this afternoon the a/c needed to be turned on.  No way no how would I -EVER- open the windows the allergens are awful and humidity is my mortal enemy.  If I could invent an antimatter bomb to annihilate all humidity I would do so in a heartbeat.

 

Wow, how did it get up to 83 in the house?  It's 73 in ours and we haven't run any AC in weeks.

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

You're not supposed to have this in October, October is historically the sunniest month of the year.  This is a spring time pattern (or November pattern)

 

I think September holds the title for most sunny days....

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1 minute ago, JerseyWx said:

Wow, how did it get up to 83 in the house?  It's 73 in ours and we haven't run any AC in weeks.

No idea there wasn't even any sunshine.  I had the AC on here yesterday too when we were in the 80s (80 outside) and my house was up around 88 degrees inside.  

 

I just checked the outside temp and it's 70 right now.

 

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The latest extended EPS continues the warmer than average temperatures during the next few weeks. The deep trough digging into the West will keep pumping SE Ridge. 

Oct 4-11

80B0F9C0-C950-4294-9A1E-0397675066DA.thumb.png.e486f3542684eef672711c86430a923d.png

 

Oct 11-18

 

C8EDD10F-8F92-4858-931A-D00E392772E1.thumb.png.8c379846dcc56eed75a3c9742e3929e8.png


 

 

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4 hours ago, binbisso said:

Looks like  Early season snowfall for the West.  places like Denver even Seattle and the Portland area.  I guess nature has to balance herself out.   it's so warm here it's going to be unseasonably cold out West.

Edit:  It looks like the mountains just East of Portland and Seattle will have their 1st snowfall this week

The entire world has been on fire for many years now, re: yearly temp anomalies.  

On a side note, Antarctica was insanely cold this summer.  

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18 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Is it really? That doesn't sound right.

I thought it was just because it's when we've had some of our longest periods of clear skies.  I went through my photo collection and my best astro pictures were taken in October.

I thought it's because the nice fall cold fronts come through and clear us out and give us nice low humidity weather.

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20 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The entire world has been on fire for many years now, re: yearly temp anomalies.  

On a side note, Antarctica was insanely cold this summer.  

the world is also flooding out, all these high humidity rainy days suck, especially the ones when it only rains just a little and it's misty which is what really sets off my allergies

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The latest extended EPS continues the warmer than average temperatures during the next few weeks. The deep trough digging into the West will keep pumping SE Ridge. So some pretty impressive warm departures adding up.

Oct 4-11

80B0F9C0-C950-4294-9A1E-0397675066DA.thumb.png.e486f3542684eef672711c86430a923d.png

 

Oct 11-18

 

C8EDD10F-8F92-4858-931A-D00E392772E1.thumb.png.8c379846dcc56eed75a3c9742e3929e8.png


 

 

but why is it so awful today?  Surely this cant count as one of those warm se ridge days- I see an ULL is once again messing up our weather

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12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

but why is it so awful today?  Surely this cant count as one of those warm se ridge days- I see an ULL is once again messing up our weather

Today was one of the easterly flow days that I mentioned yesterday when the warm minimums drive the departure. The high at JFK was +4 and the low so far of 67° is +13°. So the low could fall a few more degrees before midnight and still be close to +10°.
 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
433 PM EDT MON OCT 04 2021

...................................

...THE KENNEDY NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 4 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1948 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         73    940 AM  84    1967  69      4       69       
  MINIMUM         67    214 AM  39    1996  54     13       47       
  AVERAGE         70                        62      8       58     
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Temperatures varied widely across the Middle Atlantic region. This afternoon's high in New York City was 69°. At Philadelphia, the temperature rose to 83°.

Newark's record-breaking streak with high temperatures of 70° or above increased to 127 consecutive days. The previous record was 119 days, which was set in 2008. Since Newark first recorded 90 or more such days back in 1900, the record has increased by no more than 7 days over the prior mark, until this year. That margin was broken today.

Tomorrow will likely be the coolest day of the week. Newark could again see its 70° streak challenged. Overall, though, the warm regime will continue through the coming weekend.

Bismarck remains in line for one of its 5 warmest opening weeks in October. During that time, Bismarck could challenge or break its record of 4 consecutive 80° high temperatures in October. The record was set during October 3-6, 1879 and tied during October 10-13, 1934.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around September 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely yield to La Niña conditions later this month.

The SOI was +17.85 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.467 today.

On October 2 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.730 (RMM). The October 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.712 (RMM).

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8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

but why is it so awful today?  Surely this cant count as one of those warm se ridge days- I see an ULL is once again messing up our weather

Backdoor cold fronts suck. They can happen at any time of the year. I believe that the geography of LI Sound helps funnel NE winds into NYC and propels some of these fronts through when one might expect them to remain to the east of us. Also, I feel that this makes it more difficult for them to return through NYC as a warm front. I have been frustrated at forecasts predicting sunny 80 degree temps only to spend the day in the 50s while central NJ gets up to 80.

I have no evidence to back this up but it seems to me that these fronts frequently occur in situations that feature an upper level eastern ridge. Upper level eastern ridges can translate to surface highs over Eastern Canada which send down backdoor fronts.

I am also pretty pessimistic about EWR reaching 70 Tuesday unless we experience unexpected afternoon breaks of sun.

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