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October 2021


Stormlover74
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6 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I'll go out on a limb and say normal to slightly above normal. I don't see anything that is making me think below average versus what we have been seeing. Even after the storm today it isn't even getting all that cold for the time of year. 

I'm going -1.5.  I usually don't go negative and for good reason so we'll see.  

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41 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I'm going -1.5.  I usually don't go negative and for good reason so we'll see.  

That’s a pretty big cool down there and bold call. I’m just not seeing much on the extended that makes me think these overnight lows truly get to sustained below average. Few nights with cloud cover and some humidity and that -1.5 call will be tough given the cards we have been dealt. I think no doubt it will be cooler than it has been but not ready to say firmly below average. 

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2 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

That’s a pretty big cool down there and bold call. I’m just not seeing much on the extended that makes me think these overnight lows truly get to sustained below average. Few nights with cloud cover and some humidity and that -1.5 call will be tough given the cards we have been dealt. I think no doubt it will be cooler than it has been but not ready to say firmly below average. 

Our new 30 year averages played a big role in going more than -1.  

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Morning thoughts…

Today will become partly cloudy. Winds will gradually subside. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 58°

Newark: 64°

Philadelphia: 65°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 60.6°; 15-Year: 60.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 61.9°; 15-Year: 62.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 63.1°; 15-Year: 63.2°

Another significant rainfall is likely late Friday into Saturday.

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The next 8 days are averaging 58degs.(54/62), or +4.

Month to date is  63.2[+4.4].       October should end at  62.4[+4.5].

Reached 66 yesterday---but that was at Midnight---64 during the day.     Central Park had 3.30"+0.23" the day before.

Today: 58-62, wind nw. and gusty till sunset, cloudy.

58*(85%RH) here at 6am.         60* at Noon.     61* at 3pm.

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55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It looks like the models are continuing to struggle with the influence of the record SSTs to our east. So the WAR puts up more resistance to the cold front to our west. This has been a common theme in recent years.

New run

2F47C7D8-FCDC-483E-9E87-A8EB46C67022.thumb.png.38a8d2c66a88155743a77e1d21185060.png

Old run

21CFF83A-2424-4A47-945F-37060E041904.thumb.png.f02790e4bdaf6927b4dfb00cdde87277.png


05DB2AD8-9A50-455B-954D-8E87C09BA605.png.60bee7f7cee8b26ea2410b479291a996.png

 

There is alot of fuel out there when we do get cold weather with a storm.

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34 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

That’s one reason I think even if we have a warm winter, we will at least get one or two huge snowfalls. I am just hopeful that we finally have a white Christmas again.

I almost had a white Christmas last year but the rain washed it away.

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

LA Ninas are notorious for early starts to winter and then a warmup in the 2nd half. Let's hope we get blocking this winter.

Maybe, but our long term patterns show getting a late start to winter, and having prolonging cold in the Spring. 40 degrees and rain in May is getting old.

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10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

LA Ninas are notorious for early starts to winter and then a warmup in the 2nd half. Let's hope we get blocking this winter.

We’ll see how well the extended EPS does with its weaker SPV and stronger blocking forecast to start December. 
 

513C3D46-F94E-47CF-B02A-8A1382BE3065.thumb.png.3146f3c3fd02b62102a16a6ed9d895c1.png

940360F2-F2D1-49C4-85B3-C35149D679C4.thumb.png.572faa372c5b7a84d443ca99244886cd.png

 

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47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We’ll see how well the extended EPS does with its weaker SPV and stronger blocking forecast to start December. 
 

513C3D46-F94E-47CF-B02A-8A1382BE3065.thumb.png.3146f3c3fd02b62102a16a6ed9d895c1.png

940360F2-F2D1-49C4-85B3-C35149D679C4.thumb.png.572faa372c5b7a84d443ca99244886cd.png

 

Im curious how they both do this winter because they haven't been accurate at all during the past few winters and for this past storm.  The upgrades ruined the eps and euro.

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16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

In curious how they both do this winter because they haven't been accurate at all during the past few winters and for this past storm.  The upgrades ruined the eps and euro.

With this past storm, the Euro was great with the Saturday and Sunday runs. But it had the 0z Monday run that was too tucked to the SW of MTP. But quickly corrected 12z Monday back to the SE of MTP like the consensus. The wind gusts were also greatly improved. The problem with snowstorms was it had a cold or suppressed  bias in recent years. So the heaviest totals were often too far south like in the January 2016 blizzard. It also wouldn’t push the mix line far enough north with more amped systems. That’s why the NAM was almost always spot on with the warm tongue and change to sleet when the pattern supported it. So It wouldn’t be so bad if the Euro has an occasional over amped run in the winter as long as it corrects back closer to storm time. 
 

As to the early December blocking forecasts, seems to be related to the current strat warming event. So the vortex remains weaker going forward. We usually do well on snowfall as long as the SPV doesn’t go wild like we saw in 19-20. So hopefully, these weaker SPV forecasts turn out to be correct. It will be interesting to see if this weaker SPV forecast holds going forward. Perhaps the next seasonal update on November 5th will reflect this change.

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

64 here right now, despite it being mostly cloudy. Mild pattern will continue for awhile. Looking at long range, maybe we finally get some slightly below air coming in around the 5th of November.

It won't come in without a WAR fight but yes cooler air is likely. I think the growing season will end for most late next week. 

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we are having another negative nao October...there aren't many years that had a neg nao on average from Oct thru March...1968-69 did it last...there are not many years with a neg nao from Oct or brfore thru January...2010-11 did it last...

neg Oct years and the next three months...regardless of what the nao did after October there are some great analogs on the list...a few duds also...but the great ones win out...

n=neg

p=pos

a=neutral

year..........Oct...Nov...Dec...Jan...

1952-53.....n.......n.......n.......p...

1955-56.....n.......n.......p.......n...

1960-61.....n.......n.......a........p...

1966-67.....n.......a.......p........n

1968-69.....n.......n.......n........n

1970-71......n.......n.......n........n...

1973-74.....n.......n.......p.......p...

1975-76.....n.......p.......a........n

1980-81.....n.......n.......p........p...

1981-82.....n.......n.......a........n...

1982-83.....n.......p.......p.......p

1988-89.....n.......n.......p.......p...

1992-93.....n.......p.......p.......p...

1993-94.....n.......p.......p.......p...

1994-95.....n.......p.......p.......p...

1997-98.....n.......n.......n.......p...

2002-03....n.......n.......n.......p...

2003-04....n.......p.......p.......n...

2004-05....n.......p.......p.......p...

2005-06....n.......n.......n.......p

2006-07....n.......p.......p.......p

2009-10.....n.......a.......n.......n...

2010-11.....n.......n.......n.......n...

2012-13.....n.......n.......p.......p...

2013-14.....n.......p.......p.......p...

2014-15.....n.......p.......p.......p...

2019-20.....n.......p.......p.......p...

2020-21.....n.......p.......n.......n...

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The early November pattern looks like a continuation of last winter on the 12z Euro. Main cold shot goes down the Plains with the WAR putting up resistance in the Northeast. So the cold takes its time coming East. When the colder air finally arrives in our area, the departures aren’t as cold as to our west.

79781EE3-9991-49B5-AEB7-D7FC4972D668.gif.ce3918c9ec0f7949d846ff3f7c539f3f.gif

 

This is exactly why I would be hesitant to predict a cold November in the east. The SE ridge/WAR are feeding off those record super warm SSTs along and off the east coast, a positive feedback loop is in place. I also do not think you are going to sustain +PNA this time around, you have a coupled, strengthening La Niña, a very strong -PDO and a -PMM, any +PNA isn’t gong to be around very long 

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It won't come in without a WAR fight but yes cooler air is likely. I think the growing season will end for most late next week. 

The growing season will probably end for northwest areas late next week, but I'm not sure about our area. It's going to be close. To me right now it looks as if our lows might get down to the mid-upper 30s with the cool shot late next week. Might not be quite cold enough for frost, but it's close and we have a ways to go. Wouldn't be surprised if it trends not as cold as we get closer.

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4 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Yosemite on arrival into SFO.

Snow line from storm just to the west.

Sierras covered very nicely from the event at higher altitudes

94496B27-8550-4796-B070-65812B2DCFAB.jpeg

It would be ok with me if you posted more shots like this. Over the mountains, the Grand Canyon, etc. I love trying to figure out where aerial pics were taken.

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The storm responsible for a widespread 2"-4" rainfall with some amounts in excess of 6" began moving away from the region today. Clouds broke, but it remained windy throughout the afternoon.

In the wake of the storm, New York City's Central Park has received 56.20" of precipitation this year. That makes 2021 New York City's 17th wettest year on record.

After a dry but cool day tomorrow, another storm will bring a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts late Friday into Saturday.

No sharp cold shots appear likely through the remainder of October. It will likely turn cooler, but not exceptionally cold, during the start of November. The duration of the cooler weather remains uncertain.

The following locations are on course to challenge or establish new record high lowest monthly temperatures for October (through October 27 4 pm):

Bridgeport: 43° (record: 41°, 2004)
Buffalo: 42° (record: 39°, 1971)
Islip: 42° (record: 40°, 1971 and 2017)
New York City-JFK: 47° (record: 46°, 1971)
New York City-LGA: 51° (record: 47°, 1971)
New York City-NYC: 47° (record: 45°, 1946 and 1971)
Newark: 45° (record: 45°, 1971)
Philadelphia: 46° (record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931)
Poughkeepsie: 36° (record: 35°, 1971, 1995 and 1996)
White Plains: 41° (record: 40°, 1971)

The MJO had completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude during the first half of October. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November.

The latest guidance suggests that a period of cooler than normal weather could develop during the first or second week of November. The big issue concerns the duration of the cooler weather. Recently, Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for the second half of October where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a record four consecutive days during the second half of October. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November.

Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West
Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West
Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West

The October 1-25 North American temperature anomalies most closely resemble those for the Cluster 1 October composite anomalies.

As a result, even as La Niña climatology would favor a cool November, more than La Niña is involved. The impact of the rare teleconnections combination suggests the possibility that the month could wind up on the warm side of normal. The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. For now, this is more theoretical in nature, but it is a plausible scenario.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through October 27 is 14.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +7.28 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.621 today.

On October 25 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.709 (RMM). The October 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.762 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (4.1° above normal).

 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly cloudy and cool. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 56°

Newark: 61°

Philadelphia: 62°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 60.2°; 15-Year: 60.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 61.6°; 15-Year: 62.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 62.7°; 15-Year: 62.8°

A general 1”-2” rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely late tomorrow into Saturday.

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