Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

October 2021


Stormlover74
 Share

Recommended Posts

Monday looks like our last day of potential record warmth in a while. Newark may make another run 80° with a record high of 79°.The first two months of fall have followed the delayed fall theme of recent years. We are the warmest on record through the 23rd at several locations.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 23
Missing Count
1 2021-10-23 69.7 0
2 2017-10-23 68.6 0
- 2007-10-23 68.6 0
3 1961-10-23 68.4 0
4 2005-10-23 68.1 0
5 1990-10-23 67.7 0
6 1971-10-23 67.6 0
7 1959-10-23 67.4 0
8 2016-10-23 67.3 0
9 1968-10-23 67.2 0
10 2011-10-23 67.0 0


 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 23
Missing Count
1 2021-10-23 68.1 0
- 2017-10-23 68.1 0
2 1971-10-23 68.0 0
3 2007-10-23 67.6 0
4 1961-10-23 67.5 0
5 2005-10-23 67.2 0
- 1959-10-23 67.2 0
6 2016-10-23 66.8 0
- 2015-10-23 66.8 0
7 1983-10-23 66.7 0
8 2018-10-23 66.4 0
9 2011-10-23 66.2 0
10 1995-10-23 66.1 0
- 1990-10-23 66.1 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 23
Missing Count
1 2021-10-23 66.7 0
2 2017-10-23 66.5 0
3 2005-10-23 65.9 0
4 2007-10-23 65.7 0
5 1990-10-23 65.5 0
6 2018-10-23 65.2 0
- 2011-10-23 65.2 0
7 2016-10-23 64.9 0
- 1980-10-23 64.9 0
8 2015-10-23 64.4 0
9 1971-10-23 64.2 0
10 2014-10-23 63.6 0
- 1998-10-23 63.6 0
- 1983-10-23 63.6 0
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, those record SSTs are rocket fuel for storms. 
 

https://mco.umaine.edu/gom_sst/

DF51289D-728E-4DBE-A801-7062D827F69F.thumb.jpeg.6a276fa9f1277659c112ab5cba32b16a.jpeg

 

A3B889C3-BAEB-4E92-B7FF-DCF88B3E6860.png.206d26abd49f3e5b5ee7cd9b80ef406d.png


2C746F23-CAB9-4CE4-A8A9-385403ABB0F0.png.eaa3ca6190185fcd1bee861094c724d0.png

Those super warm SSTs are positively feeding back into the SE ridge/WAR. Given the La Niña/-PDO and those SSTs off the east coast, I think the SE ridge is going to be a big player this winter 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Morning thoughts…

After the coolest morning so far this season in many parts of the region, it  will mostly partly cloudy with near seasonable temperatures. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 59°

Newark: 63°

Philadelphia: 62°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 61.6°; 15-Year: 62.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 63.0°; 15-Year: 63.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 64.2°; 15-Year: 64.5°

Tomorrow will be much warmer ahead of a significant rainfall.

Out West, a bomb cyclone and atmospheric river will result in record rainfall at Sacramento and parts of northern California. Select daily rainfall records:

Downtown Sacramento:

October 24 record: 1.21”, 2010

October daily record: 3.63”, October 13, 1962 

All-time daily record: 5.28”, April 20, 1880

Sacramento:

October 24 record: 1.08”, 2010

October daily record: 3.77”, October 13, 1962 

All-time daily record: 3.77”, October 13, 1962

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Those super warm SSTs are positively feeding back into the SE ridge/WAR. Given the La Niña/-PDO and those SSTs off the east coast, I think the SE ridge is going to be a big player this winter 

So another words put a fork in winter already

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Those super warm SSTs are positively feeding back into the SE ridge/WAR. Given the La Niña/-PDO and those SSTs off the east coast, I think the SE ridge is going to be a big player this winter 

Classic snowman post

I guess you haven't learned from the last 2 winters with long range predictions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Monday looks like our last day of potential record warmth in a while. Newark may make another run 80° with a record high of 79°.The first two months of fall have followed the delayed fall theme of recent years. We are the warmest on record through the 23rd at several locations.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 23
Missing Count
1 2021-10-23 69.7 0
2 2017-10-23 68.6 0
- 2007-10-23 68.6 0
3 1961-10-23 68.4 0
4 2005-10-23 68.1 0
5 1990-10-23 67.7 0
6 1971-10-23 67.6 0
7 1959-10-23 67.4 0
8 2016-10-23 67.3 0
9 1968-10-23 67.2 0
10 2011-10-23 67.0 0


 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 23
Missing Count
1 2021-10-23 68.1 0
- 2017-10-23 68.1 0
2 1971-10-23 68.0 0
3 2007-10-23 67.6 0
4 1961-10-23 67.5 0
5 2005-10-23 67.2 0
- 1959-10-23 67.2 0
6 2016-10-23 66.8 0
- 2015-10-23 66.8 0
7 1983-10-23 66.7 0
8 2018-10-23 66.4 0
9 2011-10-23 66.2 0
10 1995-10-23 66.1 0
- 1990-10-23 66.1 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 23
Missing Count
1 2021-10-23 66.7 0
2 2017-10-23 66.5 0
3 2005-10-23 65.9 0
4 2007-10-23 65.7 0
5 1990-10-23 65.5 0
6 2018-10-23 65.2 0
- 2011-10-23 65.2 0
7 2016-10-23 64.9 0
- 1980-10-23 64.9 0
8 2015-10-23 64.4 0
9 1971-10-23 64.2 0
10 2014-10-23 63.6 0
- 1998-10-23 63.6 0
- 1983-10-23 63.6 0

I'm impressed with how 1983 still held onto the warmth this late and then went full on extremely cold starting in December, and that was also a la nina, but one in a drier climate regime, might look at that year as an analog for this winter.  Although the previous year being an extreme el nino might give one pause.

Think JFK can hit 80 one last time for the year on Monday?

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and still have not reached freezing in any part of our area, not to mention Monticello, Mount Pocono, Westhampton, Toms River, Marthas Vineyard or Scranton!

 

 

Going up to Monticello to stay the night at the casino.  Maybe some good colors there.   Also see you're from Oceanside.  Their fire dept is our "sister station" as they say

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm impressed with how 1983 still held onto the warmth this late and then went full on extremely cold starting in December, and that was also a la nina, but one in a drier climate regime, might look at that year as an analog for this winter.  Although the previous year being an extreme el nino might give one pause.

Think JFK can hit 80 one last time for the year on Monday?

 

 

Looks like too much onshore flow on Monday at JFK. But areas away from the ocean influence have a shot at 80°. It’s tough to use analogs before 2010 since our climate has changed so much since then. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like too much onshore flow on Monday at JFK. But areas away from the ocean influence have a shot at 80°. It’s tough to use analogs before 2010 since our climate has changed so much since then. 

the interesting thing about 1983 is that was an early warning shot about summers to come with its rainy hot humid summer.

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

A warm front is pushing across the region. As a result, tomorrow will see brief surge of unseasonable warmth ahead of what will become a stormy pattern. Readings will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in many parts of the region. The warmest spots could see temperatures rise into the upper 70s.

Tuesday and again later in the week, storms could bring a significant rainfall to parts of the region. The first storm could bring a general 1.50"-3.50" of rain to much of the region on Tuesday into Wednesday with locally higher amounts. With 52.48" of rain through October 24th, 2021 ranks as New York City's 31st wettest year on record. By the end of this week, 2021 will likely rank as among New York City's 20 wettest years on record. No sharp cold shots appear likely through the remainder of October.

Out West, a powerful storm is bringing high winds and heavy rains to northern California into parts of Nevada. As of 5 pm, rainfall totals include:

Redding, CA: 2.91" (old record: 2.29", 2010)
Reno: 0.90" (old record: 0.86", 1951)
Sacramento: 2.42" (old record: 1.08", 2010)

The following locations are on course to challenge or establish new record high lowest monthly temperatures for October (through October 24 4 pm):

Bridgeport: 43° (record: 41°, 2004)
Buffalo: 42° (record: 39°, 1971)
Islip: 42° (record: 40°, 1971 and 2017)
New York City-JFK: 47° (record: 46°, 1971)
New York City-LGA: 51° (record: 47°, 1971)
New York City-NYC: 47° (record: 45°, 1946 and 1971)
Newark: 46° (record: 45°, 1971)
Philadelphia: 46° (record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931)
Poughkeepsie: 36° (record: 35°, 1971, 1995 and 1996)
White Plains: 41° (record: 40°, 1971)

In northern Maine, Caribou has yet to experience its first freeze of autumn. The prior record latest first freeze occurred on October 17, 1970. The normal first freeze (1991-2020) occurs on September 25th, which was an increase of 2 days over the prior 1981-2010 base period.

The MJO had completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude during the first half of October. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections.

However, there is a chance that one could warmth return after a cooler than normal to near normal first week of November. The October 22-24 period saw a rare case where the AO was +0.75 or above while the NAO was -0.75 or below. There have been only 9 prior days during the second half of October (1950-2020), comprising just 0.8% of the period. Those days occurred during 1961, 1970, 1973, 1975, 2006, and 2008. In five of those six years, the first half of November saw warm anomalies in the Northeast.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was -21.08 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.938 today.

On October 22 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.605 (RMM). The October 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.427 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (4.1° above normal).

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Upton also hitting the late week/weekend system hard in their Hydrology Discussion.

Rainfall of at least 1 to 3 inches, and possibly as high as 2 to 4
inches, will accompany a slow moving low pressure system late
Thursday night through Saturday night. The potential for the
heaviest rainfall looks to be Friday night into Saturday afternoon.
Impacts will depend greatly on antecedent conditions from the storm
impacting the region early this week. At least minor impacts can be
expected.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Morning thoughts…

Caribou finally saw the temperature fall to 32° this morning. That is the latest first freeze on record. The prior record was October 17, 1970. Yesterday, Sacramento picked up an all-time daily record rainfall of 5.41” and San Francisco picked up an autumn record and 3rd highest daily rainfall of 4.02”.

Today will mostly cloudy and very warm. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 71°

Newark: 75°

Philadelphia: 76°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 61.2°; 15-Year: 61.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 62.7°; 15-Year: 63.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 63.8°; 15-Year: 64.0°

A storm will bring a widespread 2”-4” rainfall with locally higher amounts tomorrow into Wednesday.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The last 7 days of October are averaging 59degs.(54/63), or +5.

Month to date is  63.4[+4.2].        October should end at  62.4[+4.4].

Reached 61 here yesterday.

Today:  67-71, wind s. to e., cloudy, rain around sunset.     A total of 5" showing on all models before month is over.

64*(90%RH) here at 6am{up from 59 at midnite}.      69* at Noon.      70* at 12:30pm.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Those super warm SSTs are positively feeding back into the SE ridge/WAR. Given the La Niña/-PDO and those SSTs off the east coast, I think the SE ridge is going to be a big player this winter 

And if there’s enough blocking in the higher latitudes the SE ridge will be muted . Much like last winter. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, nyrangers1022 said:

 

Going up to Monticello to stay the night at the casino.  Maybe some good colors there.   Also see you're from Oceanside.  Their fire dept is our "sister station" as they say

Lots of color in westchester. I am imagining they are just at or past peak? Share pics!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Neblizzard said:

And if there’s enough blocking in the higher latitudes the SE ridge will be muted . Much like last winter. 

That has been the story since the super El Niño. Warmer winters overall with a strong WAR or SE Ridge in the means. But impressive blocking intervals that always seemed to produce snowstorms for us. So more of a snowy and mild spring in the Rockies type of winter pattern. The record SSTs to the east were like rocket fuel for heavy snowstorms. 

47176AE2-1324-498F-A97E-56384FF53A77.png.b5b00810bf1e52088ce728a15bd726a5.png

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

Caribou finally saw the temperature fall to 32° this morning. That is the latest first freeze on record. The prior record was October 17, 1970. Yesterday, Sacramento picked up an all-time daily record rainfall of 5.41” and San Francisco picked up an autumn record and 3rd highest daily rainfall of 4.02”.

Today will mostly cloudy and very warm. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 71°

Newark: 75°

Philadelphia: 76°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 61.2°; 15-Year: 61.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 62.7°; 15-Year: 63.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 63.8°; 15-Year: 64.0°

A storm will bring a widespread 2”-4” rainfall with locally higher amounts tomorrow into Wednesday.

Any insight on how much snow fell in the Sierras? I’d have to imagine the snow level was high, but above it many feet fell. Good start to the winter snow pack!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...