FPizz Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Historic 3-4 week stretch at many locations in NNJ and nyc. I think overall counting the December snow, my area had 45 days or so of snowcover since it went into March. That is extremely rare. We might have had a 25 day stretch of "winter", but it was pretty epic and one I'll remember for long time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Just now, FPizz said: I think overall counting the December snow, my area had 45 days or so of snowcover since it went into March. That is extremely rare. We might have had a 25 day stretch of winter, but it was pretty epic and one I'll remember for long time. Agree. We haven’t had a stretch like that since 14-15. What made it even better was how our area was in the sweet spot all month. NYC for February 2021 26 inches of snow -1.7 below avg temp 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Lolz You don’t believe that if it wasn’t for the SSW, that would have been a horrible winter? It saved February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 24 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The PV gain strength during last November as well. It was one of the reasons the month started out with 70 degree weather. It eventually started breaking down in December and never recovered When I initially heard about the polar vortex I started to panic a bit, but looking at that graph it isn’t that bad. Yes, the polar vortex recovers and strengthens to above average in mid November, but it starts to weaken again back to average by early December. If that’s true it means we are ****ed…. for November which isn’t even winter anyways. I’m not going to panic about a likely snowless November, as long as the polar vortex doesn’t deepen from dec-mar New England should be fine in my opinion. I am still extremely bullish on this winter. I believe it will be the best winter since 2014-2015 (and that says something because 2017-2018 was really good) NYC north. South of there id be more nervous with the increasing strength of the La Niña. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: You don’t believe that if it wasn’t for the SSW, that would have been a horrible winter? It saved February I believe it was a huge reason why February turned out so well for snow lovers. I just think it’s a bit ridiculous to say “if this didn’t happen” or “or that didn’t happen” it would have been a awful winter. You’re just posting in hypotheticals to fit your agenda here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 minute ago, George001 said: When I initially heard about the polar vortex I started to panic a bit, but looking at that graph it isn’t that bad. Yes, the polar vortex recovers and strengthens to above average in mid November, but it starts to weaken again back to average by early December. If that’s true it means we are ****ed…. for November which isn’t even winter anyways. I’m not going to panic about a likely snowless November, as long as the polar vortex doesn’t deepen from dec-mar New England should be fine in my opinion. Agree. It will be very important to see how the vortex looks at the end of December. We don’t want to see it gain ridiculous strength like 19-20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 25 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Historic 3-4 week stretch at many locations in NNJ and nyc. 26 inches here in February with 18 inches in early February and two 4 inches snowfalls after that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 You know winter is coming once Allsnow posts 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Euro has a nice rainstorm 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Agree. It will be very important to see how the vortex looks at the end of December. We don’t want to see it gain ridiculous strength like 19-20 Yeah if that happens then it’s time to start panicking. I remember things looked good initially the 2019-2020 winter, many called for a big winter and it even started off well. In my area in eastern mass we got a nice storm in early December, and there were a lot of big storms on the models. I was super excited, but then within a week the long range models shifted from forecasting a polar vortex displacement to a rapid deepening of the polar vortex and consolidation over the North Pole. After Mid December or so the new pattern took hold and didn’t let up, leading to what started as a promising winter turning into a 2011-2012 redux. I do remember Isotherm went against the grain and called for a mild winter that year, and ended up being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 2nd storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Things are gonna get a lot more active next week. Big south'easter possible just before Halloween. Lots of cooler, easterly flow though we do warm sector Monday hard. Think 80F to 50F type transition possible Monday-Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Ridge once again pushed the storm further north but we will still get rain. 2 rainstorms on the models for next week We almost always get significant storms with such a strong -NAO pattern. But it took a while this month since the -NAO linked up with the SE Ridge and lead to record warmth and storm suppression. Now the record Pacific Jet is able to undercut the ridge. So we are getting two big cutoff storms next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 https://ibb.co/pjLHdtB -PNA is going to persist through Nov 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, FPizz said: Last February was one of the best ever around here. 36" of snow and wall to wall snowcover for the month. Sledding at WOP every day for weeks. We packed that down so much I thought it would last until April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Agree. We haven’t had a stretch like that since 14-15. What made it even better was how our area was in the sweet spot all month. NYC for February 2021 26 inches of snow -1.7 below avg temp terrible... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 last February was one of the best for snow cover...this is how it stacks up with the best... February at Newark...... year......01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29.. 2021.....17..17....17....14...11...9....13..12....11..11..13..12..11..10....8....5....3....5....5....5....3....2....1....T....0....0....0....0 2017......T....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....8....6....5....3....2....2....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...….. 2015......5....8....8....8....7....7....7....6....6....6....6....6....5....5....6....5....8....7....6....5....9....8....5....5....5....4....4....4...…... 2014......T....T....8....7...10...9....8....8....9....9....9....8...17..18..17..16..16..16..15..13..10...9....4....1....T....T.....t.....0...…... 2011.....15..15..14..13..13..11...9....6....5....4....3....2....1....1....0....0....0....0....t.....0....3....2....1....t.....0....0....0....0...…... 2010......0....1....2....0....t.....T....0....0....T...13..11...8....8....7....6....8....7....7....6....2....0....t.....t.....0....7...12...9....6...…... year......01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29.. 2006......0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....t.....3...20..14..10...9....4....1....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T...…... 2005......7....6....5....5....4....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....0....0....2....5....3....1....4....6....6....1....6...….. 2003......0....0....0....0....t.....t.....6....5....4....4....3....3....3....3....2....5...22..23..19..15..13..10...5....2....2....1....1....1...…... 1996......T....1....7....7....6....5....4....4....1....0....0....t.....0....2....t.....0....9....9....5....3....2....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0... year......01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29.. 1995......0....0....0....9....5....5....5....4....4....4....2....T....T....T....T....T.....T....0....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....0....1....T....0...……... 1994......T....T....T....T....T.....T....T....9...10...9...18..18..17..15..15..13..10..10...9....6....1....T....2....1....1....2....1....T...……. 1987......5....4....3....2....1....T....0....0....T....T.....T....2....2....2....1....T....T....T....T.....0....0....0....4....1....T....0....0....0...….. 1986......T....0....0....2....1....0....6....7....5....4....8....7....5....5....5....4....4....2....T.....0....0....0....t.....T....T....0....0....0...…... 1985......1....3....3....3....6....6....6....6....6....6....5....3....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...…... 1983......0....0....0....t.....0....3....5....5....4....4...17..19..17..11...9....8....6....3....1....T.....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...…... year......01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29.. 1979......0....0....0....0....0....0....6....6....4....4....4....4....4....4....3....3....3....3...19..19..15...7....3....1....T....T....T....T...………. 1978......T....T....T....T....T....18..19..17..15..13..12..11...9....8....8....6....5....4....4....4....4....3....3....3....4....2....1....1...…....... 1975......t.....0....0....T....3....2....t.....0....T....T....t.....9....8....6....5....3....1....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...0......... 1972......T....T....T....0....0....3....3....2....2....2....1....T....0....0....0....0.....1....T....3....2....2....1....4....4....2....1....T....T...0.... 1969......T....0....t.....T....T.....0....0....t....13..14..13..11...9....8....8....7....5....4....4....4....4....3....3....3....2....1....1....1........... 1967......T....t.....0....t.....0....4...15..14..12..13..12...9....7....6....4....T....T....2....T....T.....1....0....3....1....1....T....T....1........ 1966......7....9....8....6....5....4....3....3....2....1....T....0....0....0....0....1....0....0....T....T.....0....0....0....3....4....3....2....T....... 1964......T....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....T....3....2....2....T....T.....1....1....T....T....6....5....3....2....1....T....T.....T....T....3....3.... 1961......7....7...14..26..25..21..16..12..11...9....8....7....7....5....4....4....3....2....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....t...……. 1958......1....T....t.....T....0....0....1....1....T.....0....0....t.....0....0....4...13..13...9....8....6....6....5....3....2....1....T....T....0...... 1948......7....5....6...11..11..11..10..10..10...9....9....8....7....5....4....3....1....T....T....T.....0....3....2....1....T....0....0....t.....0 1947......0....t.....0....1....1....1....T....7....6....3....1....T....T....T....T....T.....T....0....0....8...11..10...9....8....6....5....3....3..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 One thing’s for sure: Nor’Easter season is preparing to come to life soon 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: basically a 3 week winter. One storm around 12/17 with a foot area wide, big xmas warmup-Jan mild/dry, Feb 1-21 big snows, then March was fairly average temp wise but no snow Most winters have abbreviated snowy periods, even the snowier winters of the last two decades. Rarely do we see a wall to wall winter, '14-'15 was the closest that I can recall. With that said, last winter wasn't all that memorable for me either outside of the 12"+ early February storm. I almost forgot that most of us topped 40". Maybe all the pandemic craziness played a part in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: You know winter is coming once Allsnow posts And when snowman19 posts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 10 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: And when snowman19 posts The pot stirrers rejoice. As always….. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 53 minutes ago, rclab said: The pot stirrers rejoice. As always….. I got my snowman19 vaccination last year... 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Cooler air is now spreading across the region. Earlier, temperatures topped out in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Newark reached 70° for the 174th time this year. That broke the record set in 2010. Four of the five years that saw 170 or more such days have occurred since 2000 and three have occurred since 2010. A seasonably cool weekend lies ahead. Early next week and again later in the week, storms could bring a moderate to significant rainfall to parts of the region. No sharp cold shots appear likely through the remainder of October. The following locations are on course to challenge or establish new record high lowest monthly temperatures for October (through October 21): Allentown: 40° (record: 38°, 1971) Boston: 46° (record: 45°, 1971) Bridgeport: 43° (record: 41°, 2004) Islip: 42° (record: 40°, 1971 and 2017) New York City-JFK: 48° (record: 46°, 1971) New York City-LGA: 51° (record: 47°, 1971) New York City-NYC: 47° (record: 45°, 1946 and 1971) Newark: 46° (record: 45°, 1971) Philadelphia: 46° (record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931) Poughkeepsie: 38° (record: 35°, 1971, 1995 and 1996) White Plains: 44° (record: 40°, 1971) In northern Maine, Caribou has yet to experience its first freeze of autumn. The prior record latest first freeze occurred on October 17, 1970. The normal first freeze (1991-2020) occurs on September 25th, which was an increase of 2 days over the prior 1981-2010 base period. The MJO had completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude during the first half of October. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +6.25 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.953 today. On October 20 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.504 (RMM). The October 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.337 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (4.1° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 hour ago, uncle W said: I got my snowman19 vaccination last year... Me to. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Cooler air is now spreading across the region. Earlier, temperatures topped out in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Newark reached 70° for the 174th time this year. That broke the record set in 2010. Four of the five years that saw 170 or more such days have occurred since 2000 and three have occurred since 2010. A seasonably cool weekend lies ahead. Early next week and again later in the week, storms could bring a moderate to significant rainfall to parts of the region. No sharp cold shots appear likely through the remainder of October. The following locations are on course to challenge or establish new record high lowest monthly temperatures for October (through October 21): Allentown: 40° (record: 38°, 1971) Boston: 46° (record: 45°, 1971) Bridgeport: 43° (record: 41°, 2004) Islip: 42° (record: 40°, 1971 and 2017) New York City-JFK: 48° (record: 46°, 1971) New York City-LGA: 51° (record: 47°, 1971) New York City-NYC: 47° (record: 45°, 1946 and 1971) Newark: 46° (record: 45°, 1971) Philadelphia: 46° (record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931) Poughkeepsie: 38° (record: 35°, 1971, 1995 and 1996) White Plains: 44° (record: 40°, 1971) In northern Maine, Caribou has yet to experience its first freeze of autumn. The prior record latest first freeze occurred on October 17, 1970. The normal first freeze (1991-2020) occurs on September 25th, which was an increase of 2 days over the prior 1981-2010 base period. The MJO had completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude during the first half of October. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +6.25 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.953 today. On October 20 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.504 (RMM). The October 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.337 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (4.1° above normal). Don is there a chance Caribou and our area wont experience the first freeze until November? Do you have the numbers for Mount Pocono and Scranton too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Alot of rain on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Off to a chilly start, currently 45 here as of 6AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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