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October 2021


Stormlover74
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Brilliant sunshine provided for another unseasonably warm October day. Temperatures soared well into the 70s across the region.

Newark reached 70° for the 173rd time this year. That tied the record set in 2010. Four of the five years that saw 170 or more such days have occurred since 2000 and three have occurred since 2010.

Tomorrow will be a bit cooler but still unseasonably warm. A more seasonably cool weekend lies ahead. Early next week and again later in the week, storms could bring a moderate to significant rainfall to parts of the region. No sharp cold shots appear likely through the remainder of October.

The following locations are on course to challenge or establish new record high lowest monthly temperatures for October (through October 20):

Allentown: 40° (record: 38°, 1971)
Boston: 46° (record: 45°, 1971)
Bridgeport: 43° (record: 41°, 2004)
Islip: 42° (record: 40°, 1971 and 2017)
New York City-JFK: 48° (record: 46°, 1971)
New York City-LGA: 51° (record: 47°, 1971)
New York City-NYC: 47° (record: 45°, 1971)
Newark: 46° (record: 45°, 1971)
Philadelphia: 46° (record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931)
Poughkeepsie: 38° (record: 35°, 1971, 1995 and 1996)
White Plains: 44° (record: 40°, 1971)

In northern Maine, Caribou has yet to experience its first freeze of autumn. The prior record latest first freeze occurred on October 17, 1970. The normal first freeze (1991-2020) occurs on September 25th, which was an increase of 2 days over the prior 1981-2010 base period.

The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +12.18 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.619 today.

On October 19 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.334 (RMM). The October 18-adjusted amplitude was 0.312 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.8° (3.9° above normal).

 

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8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Brilliant sunshine provided for another unseasonably warm October day. Temperatures soared well into the 70s across the region.

Newark reached 70° for the 173rd time this year. That tied the record set in 2010. Four of the five years that saw 170 or more such days have occurred since 2000 and three have occurred since 2010.

Tomorrow will be a bit cooler but still unseasonably warm. A more seasonably cool weekend lies ahead. Early next week and again later in the week, storms could bring a moderate to significant rainfall to parts of the region. No sharp cold shots appear likely through the remainder of October.

The following locations are on course to challenge or establish new record high lowest monthly temperatures for October (through October 20):

Allentown: 40° (record: 38°, 1971)
Boston: 46° (record: 45°, 1971)
Bridgeport: 43° (record: 41°, 2004)
Islip: 42° (record: 40°, 1971 and 2017)
New York City-JFK: 48° (record: 46°, 1971)
New York City-LGA: 51° (record: 47°, 1971)
New York City-NYC: 47° (record: 45°, 1971)
Newark: 46° (record: 45°, 1971)
Philadelphia: 46° (record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931)
Poughkeepsie: 38° (record: 35°, 1971, 1995 and 1996)
White Plains: 44° (record: 40°, 1971)

In northern Maine, Caribou has yet to experience its first freeze of autumn. The prior record latest first freeze occurred on October 17, 1970. The normal first freeze (1991-2020) occurs on September 25th, which was an increase of 2 days over the prior 1981-2010 base period.

The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +12.18 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.619 today.

On October 19 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.334 (RMM). The October 18-adjusted amplitude was 0.312 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.8° (3.9° above normal).

 

It seems the warmth over the past number of months  has been more extreme, relative to normal, the further north you go.

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so far the lowest temp for this October is 47...45 is the record tied in 1971...

45 in 1946....great February with a major storm...

45 in 1971.....very good February...

44 in 2004.....very good winter with a major storm in January...

43 in 1994.....good February in a bad winter...

43 in 1927.....lousy winter...

43 in 2019.....horrible winter...

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12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think we get warm sectored Monday pretty hard and then flip a lot colder by Tuesday. 

Like mid 70s to low 50s type of deal.

we need to go with our (now) regular climate patterns.  I find it very hard to believe we wont get to 70 sometime between next week and the the start of astronomical winter and also at some point later during the winter.

 

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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Evidence is also mounting for a colder pattern later next month. La Nina winters usually start out cold but them get warmer. 

If it gets colder later next month it will come from a PAC reshuffle with the tropical convective forcing, not from some crazy SSW and super weak SPV like Joe Bastardi has been hyping to no end for the last 2 months. His wishcast of a major SSW/super weak SPV causing an uber cold November - January looks to be an epic fail incoming 

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

If it gets colder later next month it will come from a PAC reshuffle with the tropical convective forcing, not from some crazy SSW and super weak SPV like Joe Bastardi has been hyping to no end for the last 2 months. His wishcast of a major SSW/super weak SPV causing an uber cold November - January looks to be an epic fail incoming 

Just like your winter forecast last year .  We know how horrible that was . Once again you’re putting all the emphasis on the La Niña when other factors may come into play similiar to last year. 

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Morning thoughts…

It will partly sunny and still warm. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 68°

Newark: 72°

Philadelphia: 68°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 62.3°; 15-Year: 62.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 63.7°; 15-Year: 64.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 64.9°; 15-Year: 65.3°

A cooler weekend lies ahead.

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The next 8 days are averaging 60degs.(54/67), or +6.

Month to date is  64.3[+4.6].       Could be  63.2[+5.0] by the 30th.

Only reached 69* here yesterday with the sea breeze.

Today:  67-70, wind w. to n. to ne.  P. cloudy/M. cloudy.

63*(78%RH) here at 6am.     62* at 7am.     63* at 9am.      66* at Noon.        69* at 3pm.      70* at 3:30pm.        Reached 71* around 4:30pm.

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