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October 2021


Stormlover74
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Today was the coolest day so far this season. New York City and Philadelphia recorded low temperatures in the 40s for the first time this season.

Tomorrow will be another cool day. After perhaps the coldest readings so far this season, the mercury will reach the lower and middle 60s across the area. Warmer air will return Wednesday. Another cool shot is likely for the weekend.

Elsewhere, Bismarck recorded its 154th 70° day. That broke the annual record of 153 days, which had been set in 2016. Caribou has yet to record its first freeze of the season. The previous latest first freeze occurred on October 17, 1970.

The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +19.66 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.464 today.

On October 16 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.589 (RMM). The October 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.967 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.6° (3.7° above normal).

 

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28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today was the coolest day so far this season. New York City and Philadelphia recorded low temperatures in the 40s for the first time this season.

Tomorrow will be another cool day. After perhaps the coldest readings so far this season, the mercury will reach the lower and middle 60s across the area. Warmer air will return Wednesday. Another cool shot is likely for the weekend.

Elsewhere, Bismarck recorded its 154th 70° day. That broke the annual record of 153 days, which had been set in 2016. Caribou has yet to record its first freeze of the season. The previous latest first freeze occurred on October 17, 1970.

The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +19.66 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.464 today.

On October 16 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.589 (RMM). The October 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.967 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.6° (3.7° above normal).

 

Hey Don did JFK get down into the 40s and stay in the 50s today too?

 

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A heavier shower moving out over the Long Island Sound resulted in a rainbow.

image.jpeg.10bfabec7faaa93f90a88028e1b3a644.jpeg

image.jpeg.020e45db13abe0f08d048e98a1283e92.jpeg

image.thumb.jpeg.ecb24425ceceb4b2d79e32bb0f9047a0.jpeg

image.jpeg.84fc9efeb3cea569077886cf0bd39a9b.jpeg

Beautiful Don!  I have heard because of the number of prismatic surfaces available near bodies of water, near places like the Long Island Sound you can actually see quadruple rainbows!  (Two double rainbows!)

 

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I have never seen more than two.

It is considered the rarest rainbow of them all.

https://www.boredpanda.com/rare-quadruple-rainbow-double-rainbow-amanda-curtis-long-island-ny/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=organic

 

Yesterday, a woman in Long Island, NY named Amanda Curtis was lucky enough to capture the rarest rainbow of them all – a quadruple rainbow. Her incredibly rare photo, and the excitement it inspired among commenters when it went viral, called to mind the viral ‘Double Rainbow’ video by Paul Vasquez.

According to meteorologists, what Curtis actually saw was a double-double rainbow, but that doesn’t make it any less magical. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) research meteorologist Paul Neiman told the Washington Post that the second double rainbow resulted from the sun’s light reflecting off of a nearby body of water; “a large glassy-smooth water surface is required behind the observer. This smooth water surface reflects the sun, such that a second solar light source is generated. This reflected sun […] creates a second primary and secondary rainbow on the opposite side of the sky from the sun.”

 

 

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Morning thoughts…

It will partly to mostly sunny and milder today. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 65°

Newark: 71°

Philadelphia: 69°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 63.3°; 15-Year: 64.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 64.8°; 15-Year: 65.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 66.0°; 15-Year: 66.6° 

It will turn noticeably milder tomorrow.

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6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It is considered the rarest rainbow of them all.

https://www.boredpanda.com/rare-quadruple-rainbow-double-rainbow-amanda-curtis-long-island-ny/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=organic

 

Yesterday, a woman in Long Island, NY named Amanda Curtis was lucky enough to capture the rarest rainbow of them all – a quadruple rainbow. Her incredibly rare photo, and the excitement it inspired among commenters when it went viral, called to mind the viral ‘Double Rainbow’ video by Paul Vasquez.

According to meteorologists, what Curtis actually saw was a double-double rainbow, but that doesn’t make it any less magical. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) research meteorologist Paul Neiman told the Washington Post that the second double rainbow resulted from the sun’s light reflecting off of a nearby body of water; “a large glassy-smooth water surface is required behind the observer. This smooth water surface reflects the sun, such that a second solar light source is generated. This reflected sun […] creates a second primary and secondary rainbow on the opposite side of the sky from the sun.”

 

 

An amazing rainbow.

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The next 8 days are averaging  58degs.(53/65), or +2.

Month to date is  64.6[+4.4].         Could be  63.2[+3.6] by the 27th.

Reached 60* yesterday.

Today:   64-67, w. wind, breezy, m. sunny.

See-Saw T regime with Wednesdays and Thursdays being in the 70's----this week, next week and into November.       In-between we get some BN stuff.      Little rain unless there is a blowup around 10/29---11/01---for the next two weeks.

49*(70%RH) here at 6am.     51* at 9am.      57* at Noon.     60* at 1pm.     65* at 3pm.     67* at 4pm.        Reached 69* near 5pm, for a full 20 degree swing.

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POU finally got down to 38°. 10-19  was the latest first 30s by 4 days. The 2010s average first 30s is 9-27. So this is more than a month later than the 1951-1980 average of 9-17.

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=KPOU&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325


 

First/Last Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
1939 05-19 (1939) 39 10-15 (1939) 32 148
2018 05-01 (2018) 38 10-13 (2018) 38 164
1931 05-04 (1931) 34 10-11 (1931) 39 159
2015 05-14 (2015) 35 10-10 (2015) 39 148
2002 05-23 (2002) 36 10-08 (2002) 36 137
2011 05-08 (2011) 38 10-06 (2011) 36 150

 

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