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October 2021


Stormlover74
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26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

October  15 and I'm still wearing shorts

LoL

I am actually trying to decide if tomorrow is a beach day or if the south winds ahead of the front will be too much... today and yesterday were legitimate beach days any way you slice it. 

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

reminds me of the late Sept cooldown which in the end lasted 2-3 days and then it was back to above/well above

I think the 80’s are over but we probably go back above normal for a bit in the middle of next week. The eps doesn’t scream warm to me after that but we shall see. 

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Water temperature at the harbor entrance buoy is nearly 70 again.  lol . That just seems ridiculous for Oct 15. 

Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 170 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 11.7 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.88 in
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 69.6 °F

 

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15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Source region is from the pac which is mild. But yeah, this October is going to be a torch regardless.

Our last -10 departure day was during the July 4th weekend.


https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=32&network=NYCLIMATE&station=NYC004&year=2021&var=avg&gddbase=50&gddceil=86&how=diff&cmap=jet&dpi=100&_fmt=png

F26C9B4F-808F-4A2C-8E42-7A86C8812D0A.png.4095435600d2bd6c0700beb78976320c.png

 

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These are the average January temperatures since the year 2000:

Caldwell N.J. 30.4

Islip N.Y.         31.5

Newark           32.8

Kennedy          33

Central Park     33.4

LaGuardia         34.1

3 things stick out to me. One, Newark is colder than Central Park, possibly because Central Park daytime highs are higher with no foliage. Two, the heat island affect. You would think Islip would be warmer than Central Park and Newark. Islip has more of an ocean influence but it apparently can't  make up for the highly dense urbanization of the more inland areas like Newark and Central Park. Three, LaGuardia is a degree warmer than Kennedy even though Kennedy has more of an ocean influence which in the winter is a milder influence.

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Abundant sunshine pushed the mercury into the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. The temperature at LaGuardia Airport hit 83°, which tied the daily record set in 1956. At Newark, the thermometer topped out at 84°. These will likely be the warmest readings until next spring.

With today's warmth, Newark reached 70° for the 169th time this year. As a result, 2021 is now tied with 1946 and 1994 for the 5th most days on record. Today was also the 114th 80° day at Newark, tying 2021 with 1994 for 2nd highest number.

Through this afternoon, Bismarck has yet to experience its first freeze of the season. As a result, 2021 is now poised to surpass the prior mark for the latest first freeze. That record is October 14, 2008, which was tied yesterday.

Tomorrow will be another very warm day, but some showers and even a thundershower are possible as a strong cold front moves across the region. Behind the frontal passage, readings will return to near normal levels before warmer air returns near the middle of next week.

The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

La Niña conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around October 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +21.66 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.788 today.

On October 13 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.689 (RMM). The October 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.936 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.8° (3.9° above normal).

 

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2 hours ago, tdp146 said:

I am actually trying to decide if tomorrow is a beach day or if the south winds ahead of the front will be too much... today and yesterday were legitimate beach days any way you slice it. 

 

Me too..thinking 9f going to Asbury

 

What are everyones thoughts on timing for Jersey shore. Will we get pretty good sun til 3?

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2 hours ago, tdp146 said:

Water temperature at the harbor entrance buoy is nearly 70 again.  lol . That just seems ridiculous for Oct 15. 

Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 170 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 11.7 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.88 in
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 69.6 °F

 

Record SSTs to our east as the NW Atlantic is one of the fastest warming ocean regions in the world. 
 

06936F9C-A05D-48DF-BC54-BA5D776446B4.png.70796032b734026a17139efa85902f1d.png

AED6EE22-127C-4F2B-A2F5-9FFEF1FAAA05.png.abf32a5fdfea94a74099c7cbc2e2b9f2.png

 

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Abundant sunshine pushed the mercury into the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. The temperature at LaGuardia Airport hit 83°, which tied the daily record set in 1956. At Newark, the thermometer topped out at 84°. These will likely be the warmest readings until next spring.

With today's warmth, Newark reached 70° for the 169th time this year. As a result, 2021 is now tied with 1946 and 1994 for the 5th most days on record. Today was also the 114th 80° day at Newark, tying 2021 with 1994 for 2nd highest number.

Through this afternoon, Bismarck has yet to experience its first freeze of the season. As a result, 2021 is now poised to surpass the prior mark for the latest first freeze. That record is October 14, 2008, which was tied yesterday.

Tomorrow will be another very warm day, but some showers and even a thundershower are possible as a strong cold front moves across the region. Behind the frontal passage, readings will return to near normal levels before warmer air returns near the middle of next week.

The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

La Niña conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around October 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +21.66 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.788 today.

On October 13 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.689 (RMM). The October 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.936 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.8° (3.9° above normal).

 

You didnt mention JFK's high, it actually seemed hotter today than yesterday

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2 hours ago, lee59 said:

These are the average January temperatures since the year 2000:

Caldwell N.J. 30.4

Islip N.Y.         31.5

Newark           32.8

Kennedy          33

Central Park     33.4

LaGuardia         34.1

3 things stick out to me. One, Newark is colder than Central Park, possibly because Central Park daytime highs are higher with no foliage. Two, the heat island affect. You would think Islip would be warmer than Central Park and Newark. Islip has more of an ocean influence but it apparently can't  make up for the highly dense urbanization of the more inland areas like Newark and Central Park. Three, LaGuardia is a degree warmer than Kennedy even though Kennedy has more of an ocean influence which in the winter is a milder influence.

uhm Kennedy and Newark radiate MUCH better than either NYC or LGA, I have seen JFK sometimes be 10 degrees colder for lows than LGA and 5-6 degreed colder than NYC, and I've been 5-6 degrees colder than JFK and I'm 4 miles to its SE.

 

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27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

uhm Kennedy and Newark radiate MUCH better than either NYC or LGA, I have seen JFK sometimes be 10 degrees colder for lows than LGA and 5-6 degreed colder than NYC, and I've been 5-6 degrees colder than JFK and I'm 4 miles to its SE.

 

130ft difference in elevation and a shaded probe...

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