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October 2021


Stormlover74
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27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies have an abrupt pattern change in November. Let's see if it's right.

Such pattern changes have often occurred following passages when the MJO was in Phase 5 at a very high amplitude at this time of the year. The most recent such example was in 2010. October 16-31 was 1.9 degrees above normal. November 1-10 was 4.9 degrees below normal.

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4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

On the positive side of things the extension of the growing season is pretty cool. M vegetable gardens are still producing nicely. Annuals stay healthy now well into November. Assuming we do not have one of those shock Arctic outbreaks. We went from full growing season to the teens in 18/19. 

My vegetable garden is still going strong too. Still lots of tomatoes and peppers. I love winter obviously, but I always hope that the first frost comes late. Thankfully the cool shot coming around the 22nd of october doesn't appear anywhere near strong enough to threaten frost here.  Want to extend the growing season as much as possible. Hopefully no frost until early november. And I have some more hardy plants like raspberries that keep producing until a hard freeze. Some years I am still picking raspberries in late November. I'm hoping it stays mild until late November, and then bring on winter.

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50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we’ll see if it holds this colder look for early to mid-November in later runs.

 

It’s interesting if this happens it would be exactly as AccuWeather or the weather channel ( i can’t remember) Predicted in the seasonal forecast…Which I usually don’t give too much credence

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Agreed-cold Novembers don't do alot in these parts....(except maybe the last 5 days of the month)

 

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

We had all that wasted cold in November 2019 though we did get a minor slop event in early December before we flipped to warm

 

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

Yeah that’s what I’m thinking too. We’ve seen this episode before. Warm oct-cold 6 weeks to start nov-warm up just in time for mid december.

 

 

Yup. We have experienced enough wasted cold in November to last a lifetime. A warm October/November doesn’t make me nervous at all for the upcoming winter. 

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November 1959 had what is called wasted cold and you could have said that the first half of Dec 59 but a snowstorm and cold wave just before Christmas changed all that...there was a huge block in Nov. 59...I think the strongest ever...the snowstorm and cold wave came with little or no blocking...winters with a -5sd or lower usually were very cold, snowy or both...March 1960 had a historic snowstorm ( a blizzard by todays standards )...

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

maybe the thing that beefs up our snowstorms is also causing a bunch of months to be warm

Yeah, that’s why we have been getting so much record warmth before or after our best snowstorms since the super El Niño in 15-16. Last December it was 60s before and after our best December snowstorm and -AO in years. May 2020 tied for our latest trace of snow following one of our warmest winters. 17-18 featured 30” of snow in March on Long Island after Newark hit 80° in late February. We had the blizzard in February 2017 a day after the 60s. 15-16 went  +13.3 in December followed by the 30” snowstorm in January and new #1 NYC snowstorm. Even before the super El Niño, we were getting occasional patterns like this. Nemo in February 2013 following the very warm first few months of winter. The 11-12 lack of winter after the record snowstorm in late October. The February 2006 NYC #2 snow following one our warmest Januaries on record. The late winter 2005 snowstorms following one of the warmest first 2 weeks of January on record. This is a sea level version of spring in the Rockies where snow and warmth have often occurred together. 

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Seems I saw this cartoon before.      The 46 day cartoon---OOPS!......I mean Outlook----looks the same.         There are attempts at Normal 7 day periods centered on Oct. 23 and some undercutting cooler air trying to get in from the south and southwest during the period of November covered by the full run.

1636675200-EKagbG2gfBE.png

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Under variably cloudy skies, readings reached the upper 60s and lower 70s today. Newark reached 70° for the 166th time this year. As a result, 2021 now as the 11th highest figure on record.

Tomorrow will likely be a bit warmer. Sunshine and much above normal temperatures are likely Thursday and Friday. Saturday will be another very warm day, but some showers are even a thundershower are possible as a strong cold front moves across the region. Behind the frontal passage, readings will return to near normal levels.

The MJO is currently passing through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evoluton and changes in the teleconnections.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around October 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely yield to La Niña conditions later this month.

The SOI was +12.96 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.788 today.

On October 10 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.864 (RMM). The October 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.704 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.9° (4.0° above normal).

 

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4 minutes ago, ecovers94 said:

Hi everyone,

Lurk all the time on here but have a compelling question... can someone explain what is causing the overnight lows to be so high for so long? I don't think I remember an October where it's taken so long to go into the 40s. Thanks!

high dew points

a near total absence of the kind of continental polar air masses that might cross during a big fall frontal passage

and someone who knows more than me could explain the specific patterns and teleconnections but the end result is high dews and very little cold, dry air

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23 minutes ago, psv88 said:

My low for the season is 46. This is the latest that my location has failed to drop below 46 since i have been here (6 years). Most years have dipped into the 30s by now, and some below freezing. 

The bugs are loving it.

I still hear katydids every night. 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly cloudy and milder. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 71°

Newark: 75°

Philadelphia: 75°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 65.5°; 15-Year: 66.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 67.0°; 15-Year: 68.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 68.3°; 15-Year: 69.2° 

A generally warmer than normal regime will continue into the weekend before a strong cold moves across the region.

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20 hours ago, bluewave said:

Late season severe possible this  weekend as Pamela gets absorbed by the rapidly deepening Great Lakes low.

 

EEE57FF6-F9DD-4C48-9DA5-F4FE981ACC11.thumb.png.3efebc18448e74e3aa8dbe122a4d2dde.png
 

453CC1AF-12E2-4E39-A18C-C41687A3A518.png.77f567a69cb7b11b0c3eabf77312e1a7.png

 

 

Pacific systems dont get much attention in these parts, this is the first time I've seen such a system get attention here.

Looks like the Atlantic is shut down for business?  I'm shocked that the GOM has been so quiet, it's usually good for a late season event or two.

 

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