October 2021

[donsutherland1]

Today was another unseasonably warm day. Temperatures rose into the middle and upper 70s across the region today. Newark reached 70° for the 163rd time this year. As a result, 2021 is tied for 13th place with 2001 and 2011.

Tomorrow will be slightly cooler. Temperatures will generally top out in the middle and upper 60s. Some rain is possible, especially during Sunday afternoon. Overall, the generally warm regime will continue into at least mid-month.

In the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, the first week of October was exceptionally warm. Some temperatures and rankings for the first week of October:

Billings: 63.9° (5th warmest)
Bismarck: 64.5° (2nd warmest)
Duluth: 60.5° (old record: 59.3°, 1963)
Fargo: 63.9° (tied, 3rd warmest)
Glasgow, MT: 64.4° (2nd warmest)
Green Bay: 64.4° (3rd warmest)
International Falls: 60.1° (3rd warmest)
Madison: 67.2° (4th warmest)
Milwaukee: 68.4° (3rd warmest)
Minneapolis-St. Paul: 66.0° (5th warmest)

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around September 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely yield to La Niña conditions later this month.

The SOI was +13.08 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.524 today.

On October 6 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.147 (RMM). The October 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.963 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (4.1° above normal).

 

[SACRUS]

 

10/8

 

EWR: 79
PHL: 79
New Brnswck: 79
TTN: 78
ACY: 78
JFK: 77
ISP: 77
TEB: 77
BLM: 76
LGA: 76
NYC: 76
 

[SACRUS]

Next / last chance of 80s looks possible next Thu (10/14) / Fri (10/15) ahead of strong cold front and perhaps the coolest air of the season so far as currently modeled Sat (10/17) and into the next week 10/17.  Beyond there moderation / warmer returns to not to long after.   We'll see if we can clear and get a late season 80s in the warmer spots and then how cool we can go in the 1/17 to 10/22 period.

[Rjay]

8 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Next / last chance of 80s looks possible next Thu (10/14) / Fri (10/15) ahead of strong cold front and perhaps the coolest air of the season so far as currently modeled Sat (10/17) and into the next week 10/17.  Beyond there moderation / warmer returns to not to long after.   We'll see if we can clear and get a late season 80s in the warmer spots and then how cool we can go in the 1/17 to 10/22 period.

There's no such thing as last chance at 80s anymore.  Pretty crazy.  

[SnoSki14]

Even near normal temps by next weekend will feel cold compared to what we've seen.

[Will - Rutgers]

51 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Even near normal temps by next weekend will feel cold compared to what we've seen.

i have noticed my perception of warmth and humidity has definitely been changing over the last few years

[guinness77]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Next / last chance of 80s looks possible next Thu (10/14) / Fri (10/15) ahead of strong cold front and perhaps the coolest air of the season so far as currently modeled Sat (10/17) and into the next week 10/17.  Beyond there moderation / warmer returns to not to long after.   We'll see if we can clear and get a late season 80s in the warmer spots and then how cool we can go in the 1/17 to 10/22 period.

Feels like a cruel joke to have the weather we’ve had recently, have this crappy looking weekend coming up, beautiful again next week, and then have the weather you’re saying is modeled for next weekend. I want to enjoy the weather when I can. 

[Rjay]

In recent years we've had 78 in January and 80 in February.

[Will - Rutgers]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

In recent years we've had 78 in January and 80 in February.

there's not a whole lot that's off the table with some of these ridges

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

there's not a whole lot that's off the table with some of these ridges

At least we still get legit snowstorms.  

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Rjay said:

At least we still get legit snowstorms.  

Except I always mix now

[Will - Rutgers]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Except I always mix now

yeah a lot of the bigger storms over the last 5 years, since i came to Piscataway, have featured extensive periods of sleet.

there is always a strong mid-level warm tongue, usually poorly forecasted, that seems to muck things up.

not that i am complaining, sleet is neat

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, Will - Rutgers said:

yeah a lot of the bigger storms over the last 5 years, since i came to Piscataway, have featured extensive periods of sleet.

there is always a strong mid-level warm tongue, usually poorly forecasted, that seems to muck things up.

not that i am complaining, sleet is neat

I'm not sure how poorly forecasted it is vs us being weenies.  

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Will - Rutgers said:

yeah a lot of the bigger storms over the last 5 years, since i came to Piscataway, have featured extensive periods of sleet.

there is always a strong mid-level warm tongue, usually poorly forecasted, that seems to muck things up.

not that i am complaining, sleet is neat

The nam usually picks it up though mixing was not supposed to be an issue in the 2/1-2 storm

[Will - Rutgers]

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I'm not sure how poorly forecasted it is vs us being weenies.  

i just read the AFDs, i feel like we end up with more mix than Mount Holly predicts but that's not a quantitative analysis

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

Several more fall temperature benchmarks still haven’t been reached around the area with the warmth. NYC is yet to see the first 40s of the season and POU hasn’t had any 30s. So these firsts for the fall will be near the latest on record at both locations. This is in top of the already later average first dates since the 1951-1980 climate period.

NYC latest first 40s 
 

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Difference
2005	05-25 (2005)	48	10-20 (2005)	49	147
2017	05-14 (2017)	46	10-16 (2017)	46	154
1995	05-11 (1995)	48	10-16 (1995)	48	157
1955	05-18 (1955)	48	10-16 (1955)	46	150
1969	05-27 (1969)	49	10-15 (1969)	46	140
1898	05-10 (1898)	47	10-15 (1898)	49	157

POU latest first 30s

 

First/Last Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Difference
1939	05-19 (1939)	39	10-15 (1939)	32	148
2018	05-01 (2018)	38	10-13 (2018)	38	164
1931	05-04 (1931)	34	10-11 (1931)	39	159
2015	05-14 (2015)	35	10-10 (2015)	39	148
2002	05-23 (2002)	36	10-08 (2002)	36	137
2011	05-08 (2011)	38	10-06 (2011)	36	150

Fall temperature benchmarks getting later over time
 

NYC average first 40s….2010-2020….10-05…..1951-1980….09-24

POU average first 30s….2010-2020….09-27…..1951-1980….09-17

 

This is a good thing right? I hate shivering in October

 

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Happens every year 

Yeah and it's just as well, the really short days dont kick in until November anyway

 

[A Moonlit Sky]

October is probably my favorite month but a lot of that is tied to the weather: leaves turning, 40s at night with the window open and moonlight with a light breeze. This sort of October gets me pretty down.

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

10/8

 

EWR: 79
PHL: 79
New Brnswck: 79
TTN: 78
ACY: 78
JFK: 77
ISP: 77
TEB: 77
BLM: 76
LGA: 76
NYC: 76
 

I heard that Newark hit 80 yesterday

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, A Moonlit Sky said:

October is probably my favorite month but a lot of that is tied to the weather: leaves turning, 40s at night with the window open and moonlight with a light breeze. This sort of October gets me pretty down.

40s at night with windows open would make me shiver all night!  Even low 50s at night is too cool for me.  Let's keep the cold weather away until November when we turn our heat on.

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, Rjay said:

I'm not sure how poorly forecasted it is vs us being weenies.  

it's a pretty inexact science and it seems like where the mixing line is going to be is one of the more inexact aspects of it.  I've learned that when they expect the mixing line to be in Monmouth county to expect it to reach the southern parts of LI 90% of the time.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

i have noticed my perception of warmth and humidity has definitely been changing over the last few years

yep we're adjusting, but I can tell you this-- even back in the early 90s I didn't enjoy highs in the mid 50s and lows in the lower 40s which we seemed to get every year somewhere in the first half of October.  I was shivering and my parents had a hard and fast rule back then to never turn on the heat no matter how cold it was, before October 15th (I'm not sure why they picked that date.)

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, Rjay said:

There's no such thing as last chance at 80s anymore.  Pretty crazy.  

in November 1993 it happened on November 15th, the day after the marathon.  Earlier that month we had had extensive and widespread freezes in the first few days of November (temps in the upper 20s here with thick frost.)  I forecasted a big winter that year because I saw a connection between hot summers and early cold falls with a big thaw in the middle of November and cold and snowy winters.  It was 6/6 since 1950 with the last time it happening being in 1977 until 1993 showed up.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Next / last chance of 80s looks possible next Thu (10/14) / Fri (10/15) ahead of strong cold front and perhaps the coolest air of the season so far as currently modeled Sat (10/17) and into the next week 10/17.  Beyond there moderation / warmer returns to not to long after.   We'll see if we can clear and get a late season 80s in the warmer spots and then how cool we can go in the 1/17 to 10/22 period.

I guess tropical season is winding down, Tony- nothing showing up in the next couple of weeks at least?

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 69degs.(64/74), or +8.

Month to date is  65.6[+3.5].       Could be 67.3[+6.0] by the 17th.

Reached just 74 here yesterday.

Today: 65-69, e. wind---gusty in PM, cloudy but no rain?      Through Monday AM just 0.3" at most?

61*(86%RH) here at 6am.       70* by Noon.        72* at 2pm.      73* at 2:30pm.         66* at 6pm.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly cloudy and cooler. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 66°

Newark: 69°

Philadelphia: 70°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 67.0°; 15-Year: 68.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 68.6°; 15-Year: 70.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 69.8°; 15-Year: 70.9°

Tomorrow will be another cool day with some showers, particularly during the late morning and afternoon. Rainfall totals should be light. Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City will likely see 0.25” or less. Heavier amounts will likely be confined to eastern New Jersey and across Suffolk County on Long Island. 

A generally warmer than normal regime will continue into at least mid-month.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Pacific looks like it will be too hostile to allow more than a few days of slightly below normal temperatures around the 18-20th. Notice the strong +EPO/-PNA continuing as the ridge pulls back a little around that time. But a another amplification a few days later pushes the ridge closer to the Northeast again.

 

 

Looks like another winter with a hostile Pacific that is going to be dependent on what the AO/NAO do…you have a strong -PDO/-PMM combo and all models are now making the La Niña even stronger as winter begins, this is the NMME, the Euro, CFS and others have also increased the strength:  

 

[LoboLeader1]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but a strong La Nina would mean less snow here in the northeast this upcoming winter.

[bluewave]

56 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like another winter with a hostile Pacific that is going to be dependent on what the AO/NAO do…you have a strong -PDO/-PMM combo and all models are now making the La Niña even stronger as winter begins, this is the NMME, the Euro, CFS and others have also increased the strength:  

 

It will all come down to how much blocking we get. Unfortunately, the seasonal models have very little skill at forecasting the correct phase of the AO and NAO. When the ENSO is coupled, they do much better with the North Pacific pattern. 
 

Darker oranges more skill

 

 

29 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but a strong La Nina would mean less snow here in the northeast this upcoming winter.

Since 2010, the stronger La Ninas had more snow. During other periods, the weaker years had more snow. So there may not be much correlation between snowfall and La Niña strength. It really comes down to how much blocking we get

 

[winterwx21]

13 hours ago, Rjay said:

At least we still get legit snowstorms.  

That's the important thing to me. I don't mind if a winter has warmer than normal temps as long as we get a good amount of snow. Since the winter of 2002-2003, we've had average to above average snowfall in 14 out of 19 winters. And of course many of those were way above average snowfall.  So we're on a very good run in the snowfall department, despite the winters having mild temps overall.