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October 2021


Stormlover74
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7 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Will this week feature that “cooler then expected during a warm spell” because the temp is not going to swing more than 5 degrees that we have become famous for?  Looks like humid and round the clock 60s? An xmas eve special :/

uhm it feels like summer right now and this is awesome, I can do without the 60s thats too cold for me, around 75 during the day and 60 at night is perfect and thats what we will have.

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Another 75° at Islip brings them to within one day of the all-time record. 
 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 75 
Missing Count
  2007 120 0
  1991 120 0
  2021 119 89
  2010 118 0
  2011 117 0
  2005 116 0
  2001 116 0
  2016 115 0
  2015 115 0
  2018 114 0
  2017 113 0
  2020 112 0
  2014 112 0
  1980 112 0
  1998 111 0
  2013 110 0

JFK?

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37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

JFK?

JFK needs 4 more days to tie the record set in 2010.

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 75 
Missing Count
  2010 124 0
  2001 124 0
  1971 124 0
  2015 123 0
  2016 121 0
  2005 121 0
  1991 120 0
  1963 120 0
  2021 120 89
  2012 119 0
  2007 119 0

 

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Today is a preview of the next few weeks. Days when we get SW flow the maximum departures will dominate. When the flow turns more easterly with clouds and rain, then  the warm minimums will drive the daily warm departures. There may be several days in the mix when the warm  maxes and mins can equally dominate. 
 

Albany with the easterly flow warm  +10 minimum


 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 PM EDT SUN OCT 03 2021

...................................

...THE ALBANY NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 3 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 1874 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         65   2:59 PM  83    1922  67     -2       58        
                                      1967                           
  MINIMUM         56   3:34 AM  29    1945  46     10       37        
  AVERAGE         61                        56      5       48   


SW flow in our area with the +8 to +13  maximums driving the warm departures

 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
435 PM EDT SUN OCT 03 2021

...................................

...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 3 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         84    102 PM  85    1950  71     13       69       
  MINIMUM         56    553 AM  37    1945  54      2       48       
  AVERAGE         70                        62      8       59  


 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
435 PM EDT SUN OCT 03 2021

...................................

...THE LAGUARDIA NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 3 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1939 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         81    212 PM  85    2000  71     10       69       
  MINIMUM         63    640 AM  40    1974  58      5       55       
  AVERAGE         72                        64      8       62    

 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
435 PM EDT SUN OCT 03 2021

...................................

...THE ISLIP NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 3 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1963 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         77   1214 PM  80    2000  69      8       68       
                                      2002                           
  MINIMUM         56    540 AM  34    2003  52      4       48       
  AVERAGE         67                        60      7       58     

 

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58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Today is a preview of the next few weeks. Days when we get SW flow the maximum departures will dominate. When the flow turns more easterly, then  the warm minimums will drive the daily warm departures. There may be several days in the mix when the warm  maxes and mins can equally dominate. 
 

Albany with the easterly flow warm  +10 minimum


 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 PM EDT SUN OCT 03 2021

...................................

...THE ALBANY NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 3 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 1874 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         65   2:59 PM  83    1922  67     -2       58        
                                      1967                           
  MINIMUM         56   3:34 AM  29    1945  46     10       37        
  AVERAGE         61                        56      5       48   


SW flow in our area with the +8 to +13  maximums driving the warm departures

 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
435 PM EDT SUN OCT 03 2021

...................................

...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 3 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         84    102 PM  85    1950  71     13       69       
  MINIMUM         56    553 AM  37    1945  54      2       48       
  AVERAGE         70                        62      8       59  


 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
435 PM EDT SUN OCT 03 2021

...................................

...THE LAGUARDIA NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 3 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1939 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         81    212 PM  85    2000  71     10       69       
  MINIMUM         63    640 AM  40    1974  58      5       55       
  AVERAGE         72                        64      8       62    

 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
435 PM EDT SUN OCT 03 2021

...................................

...THE ISLIP NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 3 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1963 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         77   1214 PM  80    2000  69      8       68       
                                      2002                           
  MINIMUM         56    540 AM  34    2003  52      4       48       
  AVERAGE         67                        60      7       58     

 

I guess overcast skies kept that Albany temperature so much cooler today.

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14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Phoenix, LA & Vegas will likely see cooler days than us next 2 weeks. 

They'll probably get a sub 70 high before Newark does. 

It seems the highly urbanized area of eastern New Jersey and parts of the city, are getting temperatures more like areas a 100 miles to the south, at least during the warmer months. 

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Under partly sunny skies, temperatures soared into the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. High temperatures included:

Allentown: 80°
Bridgeport: 77°
Harrisburg: 81°
Hartford: 71°
Islip: 77°
New York City-JFK: 77°
New York City-LGA: 81°
New York City-NYC: 77°
Newark: 84°
Philadelphia: 83°

Newark's record-breaking streak with high temperatures of 70° or above increased to 126 consecutive days. The previous record was 119 days, which was set in 2008. Since Newark first recorded 90 or more such days back in 1900, the record has increased by no more than 7 days over the prior mark. That margin was tied today and will very likely be broken tomorrow.

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and somewhat cooler. Showers and thundershowers are possible from time to time.

The warm regime will continue through much of this week. The probability of a significant rain event late in the week has diminished somewhat on the recent guidance.

Out West, Bismarck saw the temperature surge to 86° after a morning low of 37°. The 49-degree range is the largest in October since October 17, 2017 when there was a 50-degree range. Bismarck remains in line for one of its 5 warmest opening weeks in October. During that time, Bismarck could challenge or break its record of 4 consecutive 80° high temperatures in October. The record was set during October 3-6, 1879 and tied during October 10-13, 1934.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely yield to La Niña conditions this month.

The SOI was +16.11 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.834 today.

On October 1 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.709 (RMM). The September 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.641 (RMM).

 

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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Today is a preview of the next few weeks. Days when we get SW flow the maximum departures will dominate. When the flow turns more easterly, then  the warm minimums will drive the daily warm departures. There may be several days in the mix when the warm  maxes and mins can equally dominate. 
 

Albany with the easterly flow warm  +10 minimum


 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 PM EDT SUN OCT 03 2021

...................................

...THE ALBANY NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 3 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 1874 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         65   2:59 PM  83    1922  67     -2       58        
                                      1967                           
  MINIMUM         56   3:34 AM  29    1945  46     10       37        
  AVERAGE         61                        56      5       48   


SW flow in our area with the +8 to +13  maximums driving the warm departures

 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
435 PM EDT SUN OCT 03 2021

...................................

...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 3 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         84    102 PM  85    1950  71     13       69       
  MINIMUM         56    553 AM  37    1945  54      2       48       
  AVERAGE         70                        62      8       59  


 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
435 PM EDT SUN OCT 03 2021

...................................

...THE LAGUARDIA NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 3 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1939 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         81    212 PM  85    2000  71     10       69       
  MINIMUM         63    640 AM  40    1974  58      5       55       
  AVERAGE         72                        64      8       62    

 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
435 PM EDT SUN OCT 03 2021

...................................

...THE ISLIP NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 3 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1963 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         77   1214 PM  80    2000  69      8       68       
                                      2002                           
  MINIMUM         56    540 AM  34    2003  52      4       48       
  AVERAGE         67                        60      7       58     

 

I dont see how an easterly wind is going to make us all that cold at all, the water temp is still in the 70s

 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be variably cloudy and warm. Periods of light rain and afternoon showers and thundershowers are possible, especially in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Southern New Jersey southward could see the temperature approach or reach 80°. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 72°

Newark: 76°

Philadelphia: 81°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 69.0°; 15-Year: 70.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 70.6°; 15-Year: 72.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 71.8°; 15-Year: 73.1°

A generally warmer than normal regime will continue through much or all of the week.

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The next 8 days are averaging 67degs.(63/71), or +4.

GFS now with more rain than EURO over the next 10 days.     TS action on the 11th?---highs went from 80's to 60's.>>>giggles.

Reached 74 here yesterday.

Today: Overcast, ne. wind, on/off rain-maybe 0.25", 70-73.

69*(92%RH) here at 6am.     71* at 9am.        74* at 11am.       75* at Noon(85%RH)      Back to 72* at 1pm.        Hey! back to 75* at 2pm + some sun which should kick off a shower at least.       Reached 77* at 4:30pm.        Raining by 5pm.

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