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Major Hurricane Sam


Jtm12180
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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Well I would rather not have a hurricane impact the area so OTS is best. 

That being said it's premature to say this will harmlessly go OTS at this stage. 

Enough. I'm a meteorologist who does this for a living offering my thoughts on what I think the most likely scenario is. 

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The CMC solution is definitely plausible, as all models have the same players on the field.  The CMC is just further west and faster, thus allowing the ridge to become more of a blocking ridge and encouraging the phase.  Is it the most likely?  Probably not.

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43 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Lol

Euro is a lot closer to CMC than Gfs

Looks like it'll be close for Maine. Still we're talking 9/10 days out so a lot will change. 

The strong ridge building in and potential ULL do seem to be on the table though.

A capture is the only thing that will send it towards the east coast. 

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7 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

I dont think so. The central Atlantic ridge is tending to weak. I think it affects bermuda and exits right. 

Thanks Nick. I'm hopeful the ridge breaks down and the westerlies give it the boot but some of the models sure want to make us sweat alittle.  example 12z euro. Yikes. 

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  • Jtm12180 changed the title to Major Hurricane Sam

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