Jtm12180 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 GFS and Euro currently in agreement of something significant in Western Atlantic 10-14 days out...fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 Glad someone got to it. Could be another long tracker with the most favorable MDR environment yet. Though that’s not saying much this season… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 The 12Z GFS gets 98L to within 200 miles of SE MA at the end, a major outlier vs other GFS runs and models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 Just now, GaWx said: The 12Z GFS gets 98L to within 200 miles of SE MA at the end, a major outlier vs other GFS runs and models. boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 Anything beyond this is speculation, but... intriguing nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 What I think is interesting is that the classic model of the +NAO leading/ .. conducting MDR, is failing to relay TCs west before succumbing either to shear or recurve. That former mode of the circulation tends to favor both. But we're losing Peter ( most likely ...) to shear, and rose appears destined to either join the westerlies or wonder aimlessly over the eastern limb of the Sargasso Sea.. 98L comes through the birthing canal less than 10 deg from the Equator, and still we hedge whether it makes the key slot lat/lon. Noted, this morning's guidance pops back west but, doing so when the NAO is negative.. These are more at anti corollary behaviors. There could the a 'spatial lag' so to speak. The NAO isn't schedule to flip signs until about 4 days from now. It'll be in free fall at that time if the CPC's latest guidance is correct. I wonder if the deeper MDR isn't "sensing" the exertion of the NAO phase change by D4. Maybe in this sense, that still delivers 98L, west. Either way, both Peter and Rose were red headed neglected by the +NAO either way. Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 Good news for turtlehurricane as his boredom may have a chance to end! Out of 51 12Z EPS members, 2 hit S FL from the SE/S as hurricanes, 1 member is in the GOM moving NE, and just about all of the rest miss the CONUS. Even though there are only three assumed hits, ~25% make it at least as far W as 70W, which is uncomfortably too close to feel confident about a safe recurve from the CONUS based on this run. You can see the two S FL hits on this 360 hour map as well as the one in the GOM, which is moving NE: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 I’ll be on Marco Island that week. Bring it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 5 hours ago, GaWx said: The 12Z GFS gets 98L to within 200 miles of SE MA at the end, a major outlier vs other GFS runs and models. 18z just a bit different lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 12 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: 18z just a bit different lol. Way out there in weenie range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Sam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Sam? That's a bit ominous. Gfs is much further north and eventually recurves. The diving NAO could be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 The bulk of the 06z Euro ensembles are still keeping it southward on a track into the islands. Euro still seems to be the outlier on the southern track though. Euro also seems to not have been doing well with these MDR storms prior to development. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Well this got interesting overnight 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Gfs is already correcting south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: That's a bit ominous. Gfs is much further north and eventually recurves. The diving NAO could be a problem. Interesting look, the cut off low from day 9 to 10 is almost stationary but the ridge to its East is building around it. Very interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is already correcting south Still way offshore but the upper air pattern is different on this run. CMC continues to be further south . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 The ECMWF is obviously catching everyone's eye here. It's important to remember that placement of ECONUS trough vs WAR with regards to land interaction beyond the Antilles is still beyond the midrange and clearly subject to change. That being said, if the door shuts for potential Sam around 150 hrs to escape poleward, then there is the potential for some type of phase interaction setup that would come into play. This would be dependent on amplification of the WAR and position/timing of Sam. This type of pattern isn't one of a recurve but of a TC being captured and driven very quickly into the high latitudes around the stationary mid-trough parked into the ECONUS interior. Again, way too far out only to speculate, but there it is... The strong block over ECAN is heading downstream towards New Foundland, which would spell trouble. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 GEFS 06z compared to 12z... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Euro That could favor Florida to NC as ridge will likely build overhead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 It seems like the delayed development is hurting us downstream as this doesn't find the first weakness north. Lets see what the next GFS shows but the Euro showing this consistency is a bit alarming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Getting some Irma vibes here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 I’m slowly getting more interested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m slowly getting more interested. Then the rug gets pulled out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 18z GFS is trending significantly south and west... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, cptcatz said: 18z GFS is trending significantly south and west... With it going all the way out to 384 it will be interesting to see what it does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 As long as this thing can hold itself together it heading into the Herbert Box definitely increases chances of a landfall somewhere by a decent margin but I guess we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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