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October/November 2021 Med/Long Range


nj2va
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25 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Might as well start a thread to track the extended range as we head into the latter part of September.  First freeze for the mountains (technically Canaan already hit it) should be coming into guidance soon.  Meanwhile, DCA won't hit freezing until January probably.

Nah I'm gonna bet the corridors probably hits it in December...ninas do tend to be colder on the front end, lol

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4 hours ago, yoda said:

0z EPS was yucky.   594 DM heights over the region days 7-10

Any pattern change away from an EC ridge looks after D10. GEFS starts shifting the ridge west with some higher heights up top by D11-12, but that’s way out there. Going to be a lot of days with 80F+ highs this month.

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15 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z EURO says maybe some real fall weather by Day 10...   below 0C 850s in the N Plains as a nice trough comes in

06z GFS says lulz nice try for any real fall weather till the very end of the run

We are probably looking at another 3 to 4 weeks of this pattern.  

The good news is as we head towards October above average means low 80s  not 90+ anymore..

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23 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

We are probably looking at another 3 to 4 weeks of this pattern.  

The good news is as we head towards October above average means low 80s  not 90+ anymore..

Perfectly setting up our recent trend of torchy Septembers and Octobers, chilly Novembers, and shorts weather for December.  

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Perfectly setting up our recent trend of torchy Septembers and Octobers, chilly Novembers, and shorts weather for December.  

If we can pull off a torch for September, October AND November you know what that means...December to Remember.  

 

It's all starting to fall in place...

 

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7 hours ago, IronTy said:

If we can pull off a torch for September, October AND November you know what that means...December to Remember.  

 

It's all starting to fall in place...

 

Sept 1983 had some big heat.

83-84 winter was decent.  I'd take it again.  BUT!  there was some bitter cold too that I could do without.  Anyone remember the days with carbureted cars (and manual choke!) you'd have put "dry gas" or "heet" in the tank or risk dreaded gas line freeze, the Watusi jack rabbit start and surging that makes you look like you're just learning to drive stick!  That combined on hilly roads full of patchy ice certainly made things interesting.

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12 hours ago, Stormfly said:

Sept 1983 had some big heat.

83-84 winter was decent.  I'd take it again.  BUT!  there was some bitter cold too that I could do without.  Anyone remember the days with carbureted cars (and manual choke!) you'd have put "dry gas" or "heet" in the tank or risk dreaded gas line freeze, the Watusi jack rabbit start and surging that makes you look like you're just learning to drive stick!  That combined on hilly roads full of patchy ice certainly made things interesting.

Coldest Christmas Day on record in Balto. Zero for the min and 12f for the lomax. 

Reloaded a month later and IAD recorded lowest temp ever at -18f on 1/22/84 .   I believe we had -12f in HoCo, but I'm going by memory, I've lost the written record from those days (I think).

ETA:  OK, now that you've made me dust off the record book (Balto)....I see that hot Sept 1983 set 5 record high max days: the 6, 10, 11, 19, and 20th.  The 11th was hottest at 100f. No other year set so many record temps in the month. 

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12 hours ago, Stormfly said:

Sept 1983 had some big heat.

83-84 winter was decent.  I'd take it again.  BUT!  there was some bitter cold too that I could do without.  Anyone remember the days with carbureted cars (and manual choke!) you'd have put "dry gas" or "heet" in the tank or risk dreaded gas line freeze, the Watusi jack rabbit start and surging that makes you look like you're just learning to drive stick!  That combined on hilly roads full of patchy ice certainly made things interesting.

Well now with the progged cold snap into early October you can stick a fork in winter.  It's over.  

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  • nj2va changed the title to October/November 2021 Med/Long Range
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