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Nov/Dec 2021 Med/Long Range


nj2va
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50 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s not the questions you’re asking. It’s the gloomy and doom point of view you’re asking them from. When I read your posts everything seems to be the “it’ll never snow big again, just have to get used to this being the norm” type of comment. 
 

Nobody cares about the questions, or the point of view actually, but when your posting seemingly has you on the edge because of weather that might or might not happen, don’t be surprised when people jump in and try to push you off that edge. In reality, all they are doing is having fun with you.

Its only weather. And it hasn’t happened yet. But this is all I’ll say about it.

I'm not "on the edge" though. If anything I got further away from that edge after last year didn't work out. I get it...we don't know what's gonna happen yet. But I disagree that we can't speculate at what we've been seeing. I remember @psuhoffmansaying last winter essentially that "we'd better hope this doesn't become a problem" and his several posts of "How is this not cold enough???". And did climate not come up in the conversation last winter as well? I mean I'm basing a lot of this just from what I've heard from some of y'all on here!! (particularly the better minds). So like...did I misinterpret all that? Lol

BUT...on the other hand I get it...I was a lot of gloom and doom last winter. I tend to focus on the negative possibilities to prepare myself in case it happens. But you're right...it ain't happened yet. But with what we've seen the last few years it's hard not to go there...been a rough stretch. But I'll try to do better...

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Btw today's questions were legit "how did that happen" questions. I get because of my history how they may have sounded like gloom and doom (although that was the wrong interpretation)...but I really did wanna know how the cold air got trapped on the other side of the globe...was just curious. I mean we CAN analyze what's already happened, right?

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21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

FROPA still on track for D7-8. Doesn’t look cold behind it, but hopefully seasonable. Better than this crap and what we’ll have next week ahead of it.

Given that we are ~+7* or so for the month going into today, and this looks to maintain / build going into mid month, how does this compare with other weak-mod la nina Octobers? 

The model is depicting potentially a near historically warm October and not just here.  Outside of a couple cool downs to normal, pattern looks impressively (or depressingly) stable.

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14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I saw a chart earlier today on Twitter, but can’t find it now on my phone, showing that most of the Top 10 warmest October’s in the CONUS were during Ninas.

These 3 stick out, if it helps any. (Meaning, I don't know how big of a nina each year was. Someone may know.)
2007...63.6f
1984...61.8f
1971...61.4f

avg of 56.6f
all at IAD

The 1971 led to a warm Dec+Jan, but cold snowy Feb.

1985 led to a record cold spell in Jan

2007 led to pathetic, don't ask.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Nice. I’m anxious for the Boxing Day repeat.

That one underperformed here, but still managed 5 inches or so. Much more just to my east. I should have chased that one to the beach too, along with Jan 17 and 18. Big snowstorms on the immediate MA coast with a whiff inland seem to be a thing during a Nina. 

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That one underperformed here, but still managed 5 inches or so. Much more just to my east. I should have chased that one to the beach too, along with Jan 17 and 18. Big snowstorms on the immediate MA coast with a whiff inland seem to be a thing during a Nina. 

Southeast ridge, dominant northern stream,  bad luck on big coastals … I won’t be surprised if we get nothing but a few isolated flurries this winter.

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7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Southeast ridge, dominant northern stream,  bad luck on big coastals … I won’t be surprised if we get nothing but a few isolated flurries this winter.

Canaan will still get 100". I will roll with whatever, and do a chase or 2 if necessary. I have plenty of work to do outside so I can make do with a mild/dry winter just fine. Much nicer to be outside than any summer month around here (May through October).

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51 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Canaan will still get 100". I will roll with whatever, and do a chase or 2 if necessary. I have plenty of work to do outside so I can make do with a mild/dry winter just fine. Much nicer to be outside than any summer month around here (May through October).

Of course, when I post that crap, I’m being facetious. I have no clue what’s gonna happen. But to your post, I have no evidence to back me, but with a dominant northern stream, I’d say Canaan tends to do well in that setup because of all the backside flow off of Lake Erie. I would think there will be plenty of upslope there regardless.

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Some hints on LR GFS that at least the Potomac highlands could see first frost/freeze in the 25-26 time period.  Hard to imagine getting out of October without this happening, but fairly certain most of the region has the growing season persisting even into the higher elevations. 

It's getting pretty late in the season for this to not have happened at least once.  

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