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Nov/Dec 2021 Med/Long Range


nj2va
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2 hours ago, mattie g said:

Just had a quick look at TT. There was a front there at the same timeframe, but it never made it all the way here, then there a reinforcing shot that was to come in but not with a ton of oomph. 

Just comparing, it just shows the volatility forecasting beyond about 5 days. 10 certanot ADA394A1-494E-4A7F-AD4D-8B09882A81D8.thumb.png.d1b1cc2c84beabb03d53a1fd10c20b0e.png

AFD270E8-A6A7-4D74-B0EE-25507DE6E9F5.thumb.png.723dd3774d4e6731621f22259b18a37b.png

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5 hours ago, mattie g said:

But did they really show that much of a cooler look? And today's 12z GFS is showing mostly cooler than normal temps after the frontal passage on Wednesday-Thursday.

I realize I'm being a little oppositional, but I'm just not sure why there's a bit of hand-wringing about this.

I was just making the point. At one time I saw 40s for nights and 60s for the daytime highs for a few days. The front was coming through quicker and it was a bit cooler, heights lower, and it lasted a bit longer. Moving on from this though!

 

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15 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Definitely looks warmer than normal and dry as we head into the extended period! The cooler looks have vanished from both Euro and GFS after a few small cooler shots the next 5-6 days. 

October following September as a new later summer month.  Well, that might be grasping, but obvious the cooling that was modeled is vanishing 

The cooler weather beyond day 5 might simply be falling daily temps following climo. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, mattie g said:

And now the GFS says we warm up for about a week starting Tuesday or so and then a significant cool shot comes in during the first week of October.

Can we agree not to take progs beyond maybe Day 7 verbatim?

12z GFS is hilarious for the beginning of October.

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On 9/23/2021 at 2:07 PM, WxUSAF said:

12z GFS is hilarious for the beginning of October.

 

22 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

Ya.. WTH is it doing! LOL! Euro kind of gives me pause for Sam, though I think he is fishy. Anyways... no doubt the models are being wacky! LOL
 

CMC and Euro today have similar solutions.  Could be weird shenanigans next weekend.

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A classic omega block is setting up this week with a high amplitude ridge to the west and the northeast under an upper low that looks to close off. Models vary on exact location and strength as the week progresses. Overall looks like NE flow regime with cool temps from Wed onward, with a mixture of sunny and cloudy periods, and maybe some shower chances, but most of the precip appears to stay offshore. Latest GFS brings some decent showers through late Tuesday with a shortwave as the trough over the NE digs southward. Who knows how things evolve towards next weekend with any tropical influence from the Atlantic- doesn't look like much at this juncture.

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