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Nov/Dec 2021 Med/Long Range


nj2va
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3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

0z GFS run had the first major mountain snow of the season at the end of its run but nothing for the anyone else.

Maybe it will be cool for Halloween weekend this year looking at the LR.  that would be nice. 

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9 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now someone explain to me...how the "It's only October" response works when folks start writing off this winter...when the la nina statistics look like this: (this is from the last 10 la ninas)

Screenshot_20211021-202758_Gallery.thumb.jpg.0938f018f356a66b6ba87c5357eb2b20.jpg

I mean...isn't this like a slam dunk seasonal forecast given that only one aberration is 95/96?...I mean ya barely have to track because you know what it's gonna look like pretty much, lol Now the other ENSO states seem to be less predictable around here...

How do you interpret that as such a negative stat?   The temp is only 0.1F above seasonal average and snow is only 1.5" below seasonal average.  

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54 minutes ago, mappy said:

the winter is going to suck. warm. not snowy. blah. 

Yup. I’m trying to just accept it and hope we get 1-2 nice events and maybe a good cold shot finally amidst general crap.

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Yup. I’m trying to just accept it and hope we get 1-2 nice events and maybe a good cold shot finally amidst general crap.

11-12 repeat on tap is my guess

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@Maestrobjwa if we apply the average of each climatological period...BWI has had below normal snowfall 22 of the last 30 years.  That means ANY year there is a 73% chance that it will be below average.  And considering the average snowfall is pretty low...that means there is a 73% chance winter is going to SUCK every year.  Most winters in this region suck.  That is just climo.  The average is inflated by 1-2 really big anomalous snowfall years each decade.  Our typical normal climo in a decade is to have 1-2 really huge winters with 30"+ snowfall...one near average winter with about 20" and 7 bad winters with some degree of god awful to just regular old crappy low snowfall.  That is what normal is the mid atlantic. 

I don't fault anyone for not being happy with that...but that is reality.  That's why I moved to the northern edge of our region and on top of a freaking mountain ridge...and frankly I am still not satisfied wrt snowfall far too often.  But living in and around DC and Baltimore and expecting 20" of snowfall every winter is just not aligned with reality and will leave you disappointed about 75% of the time.   

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But living in and around DC and Baltimore and expecting 20" of snowfall every winter is just not aligned with reality and will leave you disappointed about 75% of the time.   

Who said anything about everytime? I'm under no such delusion. I'd be happy with intervals we got that between 1982-83 and 2015-+16. We'd go 3-4 years, then get a 20 inch winter--and in between that was kinda mediocre. That's fine--it's what my generation grew up with--and thus it's what I'd come to expect out of this region. But this stretch we're in now goes beyond that, and is the longest since the 70s. Now maybe this will even out I don't know...but with all the climate talk I'm not so sure.

So in summary...this is a longer interval than some of us born post 70s have seen in our lifetime. (I think between 1987-1993 may have been about this long)

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8 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Yup. I’m trying to just accept it and hope we get 1-2 nice events and maybe a good cold shot finally amidst general crap.

Kinda where I'm at. Hoping for at least some legit cold and a few scenery WWA events (can we get a couple 2 inchers? Lol) if we can manage it. That actually wouldn't be terrible for a nina

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