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Central PA - Fall 2021


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45 minutes ago, canderson said:

Is that line out west gonna survive the mountains? 

It’s likely that the severe aspect of the line likely won’t hold across the mountains. The big parameter with this line driving into western PA with what appears to be multiple couplets (probable QLCS tornadoes and/or wind damage) is nearly 50 knots of effective bulk shear in western PA. The SPC mesoanalysis near term forecast fizzles this parameter out later this evening, likely due to no CAPE east of the mountains (western PA has marginal CAPE present). But still wouldn’t rule out some gusty showers or storms though as this line out there is associated with the  frontal passage/potent shortwave. 

1510027482_SPCHourlyMesoscaleAnalysis.thumb.png.848e3733b7a4727bf6b984a1177c4c9f.png

Also, I promise to post more as we get onward toward winter… I’ve been pretty busy lately. It’s nice to see so much activity in this thread these days. 

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57 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

It’s likely that the severe aspect of the line likely won’t hold across the mountains. The big parameter with this line driving into western PA with what appears to be multiple couplets (probable QLCS tornadoes and/or wind damage) is nearly 50 knots of effective bulk shear in western PA. The SPC mesoanalysis near term forecast fizzles this parameter out later this evening, likely due to no CAPE east of the mountains (western PA has marginal CAPE present). But still wouldn’t rule out some gusty showers or storms though as this line out there is associated with the  frontal passage/potent shortwave. 

1510027482_SPCHourlyMesoscaleAnalysis.thumb.png.848e3733b7a4727bf6b984a1177c4c9f.png

Also, I promise to post more as we get onward toward winter… I’ve been pretty busy lately. It’s nice to see so much activity in this thread these days. 

Your written exam on the correlating relationship between Pillow, Paw Paw, Palouse, Iowa State and John Bolaris is due at 3 p.m. Friday. Blue books can be picked up on Coffin Rock. 

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Won't we here in Williamsport end up getting more rain than predicted, according to the radar?  Also note that the weather.gov forecast mentions a particular hour tomorrow, between 11-noon.  I do not recall seeing anything that precise before in anybody's text forecasts.  

Tonight
Showers likely, mainly before midnight. Cloudy early, then becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 52. South wind around 7 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday
A slight chance of showers between 11am and noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 64. West wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

image.png.60fa9b3d95a738621c9f83856085b8b3.png

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I'm wondering if this'll be the warmest October on record? The first half was already the warmest on record and the 2nd half doesn't look like it'll cool down much with temps either hovering around average or above. Low temps are obviously higher than normal like they've been for years now so that'll play a key factor into it as well.

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10 hours ago, canderson said:

I want plum and lavender lemonade. Where can one acquire this?

There is a local to us food truck that makes Lavender Lemonade, to die for. Stand by, i'll find who they are

 

31 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’m looking forward to the next few days of normal to below normal temperatures! Fall Weather will feel extra refreshing after the recent warmth.

high 58 tomorrow. I'll take it. 

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1 hour ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

I'm wondering if this'll be the warmest October on record? The first half was already the warmest on record and the 2nd half doesn't look like it'll cool down much with temps either hovering around average or above. Low temps are obviously higher than normal like they've been for years now so that'll play a key factor into it as well.

I think @TimB84 had some info on that.  It's currently at +7.5 for MDT.  Just using the GFS as an example, if the forecasted highs of below normal come to fruition much of next week, that number will get knocked down quite a bit.  

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think @TimB84 had some info on that.  It's currently at +7.5 for MDT.  Just using the GFS as an example, if the forecasted highs of well below normal come to fruition much of next week, that number will get knocked down quite a bit.  

It sticks in my mind that the record Oct at MDT is a +6.5 departure relative to the current normals. So if month to date is +7.5, it would take a +4.5 or so the rest of the way to “achieve” such ignominy. The warm nights could make it close.

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9 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

It sticks in my mind that the record Oct at MDT is a +6.5 departure relative to the current normals. So if month to date is +7.5, it would take a +4.5 or so the rest of the way to “achieve” such ignominy. The warm nights could make it close.

Thanks.  Sticking with this line of thinking, I am still sticking with my call of 5-7 days below normal at MDT before month end.  HIA screwed me out of 1-2 days earlier this week otherwise I would be really confident about it.  Both PIT PHL were below normal the 17th and 18th but not our warm loving MDT guys. 

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14 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

It sticks in my mind that the record Oct at MDT is a +6.5 departure relative to the current normals. So if month to date is +7.5, it would take a +4.5 or so the rest of the way to “achieve” such ignominy. The warm nights could make it close.

PS-the normal highs for MDT next week are 61 and 62.    I think that is a bit higher than some thought it would be.    

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9 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

A high of 75 yesterday, a low of 53 last night, and nary a drop of rain to be found.  Nice Fall weather on tap for the weekend.

78/53 split here. 0" of rain officially this week.

Big weekend for me, 76ers home opener tonight (arrive home around midnight) and then up at 4:30am tomorrow to head to Happy Valley. 

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7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

That is a lot of sports in 24 hours.  

My favorite trick was back in the 90s - I had Flyers and Hershey Bears season tickets. Flyers would often play Saturday afternoon games at 1pm. Bears traditionally played Saturday home games at 7pm. I'd go to Philly, watch the Fly guys, hop on the turnpike and be in Hershey just in time for doors to open. 

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7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

My favorite trick was back in the 90s - I had Flyers and Hershey Bears season tickets. Flyers would often play Saturday afternoon games at 1pm. Bears traditionally played Saturday home games at 7pm. I'd go to Philly, watch the Fly guys, hop on the turnpike and be in Hershey just in time for doors to open. 

So if early to mid 90's, you could have safely worn your John LeClair or Tim Tookey jerseys to either stadium. 

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