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Central PA - Fall 2021


canderson
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10 hours ago, pasnownut said:

I saw a couple hints of frost on shaded grass and a couple rooftops on way to work this am.  Not heavy whatsoever, but after almost 53 years of searching for frozen particles....it was undeniably frost.  Almost got out of SUV to touch it...I'm whacked like that.  

Congrats on the Frost sighting! 
I am looking forward to scraping frost off of the windshield one of these days.

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6Z GFS: MDT gets around 60 Sat and Sun (probably over with HIA) and then stays between 49 and 40 from Sunday evening until Thursday afternoon.   Temp does not actually breach 60 until Nov 3rd.  Would put a large dent into the positive departures (at least the high parts).   Lots of rain next week helping to minimalize temp movement.

image.png.c222aa0e0acaef37ce255e0819099265.png

 

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

6Z GFS: MDT gets around 60 Sat and Sun (probably over with HIA) and then stays between 49 and 40 from Sunday evening until Thursday afternoon.   Temp does not actually breach 60 until Nov 3rd.  Would put a large dent into the positive departures (at least the high parts).   Lots of rain next week helping to minimalize temp movement.

image.png.c222aa0e0acaef37ce255e0819099265.png

 

The models really, really backed off on the northward extent of the heat next week. And it’s not just the GFS, the Euro did too, albeit to a lesser extent.

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19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

45 here now.  Got down to 42 earlier. 

 

1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

42 this morning here

I only dropped to 48.  Judging from some of the overnight IR images, it looks like we had a narrow blanket of clouds move area this area for a good portion of the late night, would certainly explain the difference.

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10 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

The models really, really backed off on the northward extent of the heat next week. And it’s not just the GFS, the Euro did too, albeit to a lesser extent.

Yep.  its like we almost have to ignore the extremes and go with middle ground forecasting.  Your neck of the woods never really gets above norm's in a quick run through. 

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44 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

6Z GFS: MDT gets around 60 Sat and Sun (probably over with HIA) and then stays between 49 and 40 from Sunday evening until Thursday afternoon.   Temp does not actually breach 60 until Nov 3rd.  Would put a large dent into the positive departures (at least the high parts).   Lots of rain next week helping to minimalize temp movement.

image.png.c222aa0e0acaef37ce255e0819099265.png

 

Just how much rain?

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8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Sunny and 58 here now. I'm going to make another run at 80 today...

It will be interesting if we ever find out what is going on.  NWS and all models understate your temps almost every day.  Forecasts are fine in most areas away from the I81/I83 corridor close to the Burg.  You guys should be be tying or beating DCA every day.  LOL.   HRRR says you get low 70's today. 

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12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It will be interesting if we ever find out what is going on.  NWS and all models understate your temps almost every day.  Forecasts are fine in most areas away from the I81/I83 corridor close to the Burg.  You guys should be be tying or beating DCA every day.  LOL.   HRRR says you get low 70's today. 

I most likely have a better chance tomorrow. I woke up today feeling like an overachiever. :) 

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