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Central PA - Fall 2021


canderson
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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

-.5 going into today so it will move to a small positive number tomorrow.  Later the month goes, the less severe the moves will be one way or another. 

Thanks. I assumed that the negative departure had been eroded but wasn't sure exactly how far it had reversed. Lots of weather left! 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Thanks. I assumed that the negative departure had been eroded but wasn't sure exactly how far it had reversed. Lots of weather left! 

Just based on the GFS, which is a weak base of course, MDT would be probably +3ish going into the last 8-10 days of the month so could be close to a wash and very close to normal at the end of the month.  Again just based on today's GFS.  If I had to be pinned down for a number right now I would guess MDT ends up +1 to +2.   

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Just based on the GFS, which is a weak base of course, MDT would be probably +3ish going into the last 8-10 days of the month so could be close to a wash and very close to normal at the end of the month.  Again just based on today's GFS.  If I had to be pinned down for a number right now I would guess MDT ends up +1 to +2.   

GFS looks like it’s beating back that late-month trough with yet another ridge. Short-lived relief.

Cold front is west of the Mississippi on the CMC at 240.

Ugh.

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1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

GFS looks like it’s beating back that late-month trough with yet another ridge. Short-lived relief.

Cold front is west of the Mississippi on the CMC at 240.

Ugh.

Yes, if I had to guess on the 6Z GFS I would have said MDT is back to negative by month end.  GFS has some below normal days but not exactly fall like.

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Yes, if I had to guess on the 6Z GFS I would have said MDT is back to negative by month end.  GFS has some below normal days but not exactly fall like.

Looks like we’re right in the battleground between the trough and the ridge at the end. That would be fairly seasonable.

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