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Central PA - Fall 2021


canderson
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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I found the drought monitor posted yesterday in the NE thread.

You will need to go to WV or Maine to see drought conditions now.

 

Or a couple counties to my left in Bedford, PA.    This was pre Ida though so I suspect they withdraw that one though the conditions in WV may not have improved enough to withdraw, unsure.  Different kinds of droughts and an agricultural drought is only helped so much when 5" of rain falls in a day.    

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3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Or a couple counties to my left in Bedford, PA.    This was pre Ida though so I suspect they withdraw that one though the conditions in WV may not have improved enough to withdraw, unsure.  Different kinds of droughts and an agricultural drought is only helped so much when 5" of rain falls in a day.    

It's okay...I understand you. While my yard is as green as I've ever seen it, while I was mowing Saturday PM I was shocked by how hard the ground had become after 3 straight sunny days. I think the quarter inch of rain yesterday did as much if not more for my soil than the 7+ inches on Wednesday.

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25 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It's okay...I understand you. While my yard is as green as I've ever seen it, while I was mowing Saturday PM I was shocked by how hard the ground had become after 3 straight sunny days. I think the quarter inch of rain yesterday did as much if not more for my soil than the 7+ inches on Wednesday.

I understand as well and was just having some fun….!

Lol…Let’s hope that 1 mile of yellow in Bedford county gets out of the lightest shade of yellow with the next update!

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6 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I understand as well and was just having some fun….!

Lol…Let’s hope that 1 mile of yellow in Bedford county gets out of the lightest shade of yellow with the next update!

Blizzard of '93:  President of the Bedford Area Water Preservation Society.   Won"t someone think of the Bedfordians! 

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20 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Next week gets ugly on the EC. At least 3 days where reaching or exceeding 90 is very much in play. In mid-September. Hope it’s wrong.

Not surprised...September seems to be getting hotter and hotter in recent memory. 

We had what I thought was a beautiful spring this year; but generally speaking, seasons (to me) are becoming much more about extended cold in the spring and extended heat in the fall. That's nothing at all more than a perception.  

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5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Not surprised...September seems to be getting hotter and hotter in recent memory. 

We had what I thought was a beautiful spring this year; but generally speaking, seasons (to me) are becoming much more about extended cold in the spring and extended heat in the fall. That's nothing at all more than a perception.  

I did not look at the EC but the latest CMC and GFS are having none of it (90's) so still up for grabs.  Upper 40's and low 50's tonight :-). 

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10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I took your word for it as you are spot on with the model interpretations.  MDT specific, its rare that we do not get one 90's day in Sept (though last year I think 85 was the highest if I remember correctly).  

GFS isn’t buying what the EC is selling, at all. 18z is still on the idea of a lot of perfect September weather.

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The NWS Zones are out through 7 days from now (Sept 13th) and using that along with predicted  model temps, its possible MDT stays at or below normal every day of the first 13 days of Sept. Might be close a couple days to nudging slightly above but if they accomplish even 11 or 12 of the first 13, that is quite the nice streak. 

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5 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

GFS isn’t buying what the EC is selling, at all. 18z is still on the idea of a lot of perfect September weather.

Not taking time away from Labor day to study models but a quick peek at 2M temps on the 18Z GFS shows much above normal temps in the S/E next week so I am guessing much of the discrepancy is based on the advancement of that area (or lack of).   

 

I will take some Labor Day time if Blizz has any drought concerns.  I can help him map out his plan of attack to keep the grass alive. 

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30 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not taking time away from Labor day to study models but a quick peek at 2M temps on the 18Z GFS shows much above normal temps in the S/E next week so I am guessing much of the discrepancy is based on the advancement of that area (or lack of).   

 

I will take some Labor Day time if Blizz has any drought concerns.  I can help him map out his plan of attack to keep the grass alive. 

Correct. Happy Labor Day to all. It was a near-perfect weekend on the weather front, as far as I’m concerned. Completes the trifecta of below normal holiday weekends this summer.

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13 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

The NWS Zones are out through 7 days from now (Sept 13th) and using that along with predicted  model temps, its possible MDT stays at or below normal every day of the first 13 days of Sept. Might be close a couple days to nudging slightly above but if they accomplish even 11 or 12 of the first 13, that is quite the nice streak. 

MDT stuck it to me yesterday getting quite a bit warmer than forecast so they got a little above normal. 

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