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Western PA/Pittsburgh Fall Weather Discussion


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1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

There are exactly 8 times we’ve made it past today’s date without dropping into the 30s, and 7 of those 8 occurred prior to the KPIT era. Record is 10/26. Weekend looks a tad warmer than it did before. Another alarming record is in jeopardy.

Long-term, it looks like we could push the first freeze all the way back into November.  That kind of fits with the theme of this year with warmer lows, and I wonder what the latest freeze date is for PIT (unless that's the 10/26 date to which you refer).

We don't really approach the mark until hour 366 on the GFS.  The only other time we get remotely close is hour 198 around the 26th (ironically).  Freezing temps creep into northern PA while we hit 37 or so.  It's not just us, either.  Most of the northeast has avoided any kind of real cold thus far, even overnight cold, and that continues through the long-term.  Excepting maybe a period next week.

We'll see if it pans out.  We're in for another La Nina spell this winter.

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4 minutes ago, jwilson said:

Long-term, it looks like we could push the first freeze all the way back into November.  That kind of fits with the theme of this year with warmer lows, and I wonder what the latest freeze date is for PIT (unless that's the 10/26 date to which you refer).

We don't really approach the mark until hour 366 on the GFS.  The only other time we get remotely close is hour 198 around the 26th (ironically).  Freezing temps creep into northern PA while we hit 37 or so.  It's not just us, either.  Most of the northeast has avoided any kind of real cold thus far, even overnight cold, and that continues through the long-term.  Excepting maybe a period next week.

We'll see if it pans out.  We're in for another La Nina spell this winter.

Latest first freeze is 11/21/1922. Latest first freeze in the KPIT era is 11/11/1994. It’ll be interesting to see what happens for sure. The 10/26 date is the latest first 30s.

First freeze has been in November 39 times on record.

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2 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Latest first freeze is 11/21/1922. Latest first freeze in the KPIT era is 11/11/1994. It’ll be interesting to see what happens for sure. The 10/26 date is the latest first 30s.

First freeze has been in November 39 times on record.

That's both later and more often than I had expected.  I guess pushing it to November isn't quite as unusual as I first thought.

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Tornado Warning

Tornado Warning
PAC003-007-129-220000-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.TO.W.0027.211021T2340Z-211022T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
740 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  East central Beaver County in western Pennsylvania...
  Northeastern Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania...
  Northwestern Westmoreland County in southwestern Pennsylvania...

* Until 800 PM EDT.

* At 740 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Franklin Park, moving east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Ross Township, Bellevue, West View and McKees Rocks around 745 PM
  EDT.
  Pittsburgh, McCandless Township, Shaler Township and Gibsonia
  around 750 PM EDT.
  Millvale, Etna and Sharpsburg around 755 PM EDT.
  Penn Hills, Plum, Hampton Township, Wilkinsburg, New Kensington,
  O`hara Township, Oakmont, Fox Chapel, Arnold and Springdale around
  800 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Sewickley Hills, Cheswick, Ben Avon Heights, Sewickley Heights,
Reserve Township, Glenfield, Russellton, Haysville, Glen Osborne and
Curtisville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to
the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

LAT...LON 4049 8017 4062 8016 4065 7973 4044 7977
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 277DEG 29KT 4056 8010

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

 

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mcd1882.gif

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1882
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0656 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of western Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 212356Z - 220200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for a couple of tornadoes is expected to
   persist for a couple more hours before storms weaken and the severe
   threat gradually diminishes. Given the expected short duration
   tornado threat, a Tornado Watch issuance remains unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple discrete/semi-discrete supercells continue to
   exhibit instances of strong low-level rotation, from Butler County
   PA to Ohio County WV. Multiple TDS signatures were noted with some
   of these storms in the past few minutes via KPBZ dual-polarimetric
   radar data. These storms continue to rotate within an environment
   characterized by weak buoyancy (MLCAPE barely reaching 500 J/kg
   MLCAPE), but with strong low-level shear. Specifically, PBZ VAD
   profiler data have shown consistent elongated hodographs with 200+
   0-1km SRH, with METAR observations also showing some localized
   backing of the surface winds across southwest PA. As such, storm
   organization and periods of low-level rotation/brief tornadoes will
   likely continue for a couple more hours, before boundary-layer
   stabilization results in a gradual waning of the severe threat. A
   Tornado Watch issuance is not expected.

   ..Squitieri/Dial.. 10/21/2021
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Tornado Warning

Tornado Warning
PAC003-125-220030-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.TO.W.0028.211022T0007Z-211022T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
807 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  East central Washington County in southwestern Pennsylvania...
  South central Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania...

* Until 830 PM EDT.

* At 807 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over McMurray, moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  McMurray around 810 PM EDT.
  Bethel Park and Gastonville around 820 PM EDT.
  South Park Township, Jefferson Hills and Pleasant Hills around 825
  PM EDT.
  McKeesport, Clairton, Glassport and Liberty around 830 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Port
Vue, Elizabeth, Finleyville, West Elizabeth, Lincoln and Dravosburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to
the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

LAT...LON 4023 8016 4028 8017 4035 7987 4022 7985
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 262DEG 23KT 4026 8012

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

 

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Too close for comfort, wife got the sleeping baby and I wrangled the scared dog downstairs with one leg.  Tornado looks like it hit less than 2 miles south of us, couldn't tell if it was going to get any closer without making the call.  I think the incline on our southern side sheltered us pretty good because there aren't even any branches down.  Power didn't even flicker and it does that when the sun is shining!  Enough excitement for me today, thanks.

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2 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Would not be surprised at all to see a confirmed tornado in Hampton. Way too close.

Yes I agree. I watched that rotation on radar as it went about 5 miles north of me. Duncan ave all the way down to route 8 and then on toward Hartwood Acres. Looking at some damage on the news I’m guessing E-F 1. It could have been a microburst but I think there was too much rotation on radar. 

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