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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

There is some good news about the climate this summer.

In regards to Arctic Ice coverage:

"We may have reached the area minimum on 9/1....we're currently about 75k above the 9/1 value of 3.19 million sq km. Still a bit too precarious to call it, but if we had a 9/1 area min, that would be the earliest min since 1992."

Also this is happening this week

image.png

Thats from the remnants of ol Hurricane Larry!

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The 1804 New England hurricane (also known as the Storm of October 1804) was the first tropical cyclone in recorded history known to produce snowfall, with Hurricane Ginny in 1963, Hurricane Sandy in 2012, and Hurricane Zeta in 2020 being the next such systems to do so. An unusual late-season storm in 1804, it yielded vast amounts of snow, rain, and powerful winds across the northeastern United States. Prior to its approach towards the East Coast of the United States, it passed through the Caribbean Sea on 4 October, and later emerged near Georgetown, South Carolina. By early on 9 October, a trough near the Virginia Capes turned the disturbance toward New England. Soon thereafter, the hurricane's abundant moisture clashed with an influx of cold Canadian air, leading to the deepening of the resulting pressure gradient and provoking inland intensification. While situated over Massachusetts, it attained its peak intensity of 110 mph (175 km/h), undergoing an extratropical transition. Even as it drifted towards the Canadian maritimes, consequently gradually weakening, precipitation persisted for another two days before the snowstorm finally subsided on 11 October.

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1804_New_England_hurricane

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54 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Fascinating. How common is it to have tropical remnants cause a massive snowstorm? Even if it’s that far north. 

Not sure, probably happens more than we realize as I rarely check in on storms that are that far north.  Pretty cool though.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_fh6-114.gif

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1 hour ago, Revracer800 said:

Just got back from Old Forge and the foliage is changing up there already, a lot of red and orange. Was up there for 3 day's. Had a great time. 

I just moved my winter camp out of old forge.  Gets too crowded now in winter.

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3 hours ago, Revracer800 said:

Just got back from Old Forge and the foliage is changing up there already, a lot of red and orange. Was up there for 3 day's. Had a great time. 

 

You do any mountain biking up there?

I keep meaning to go try out the trails.  It sounds like they have built an impressive network.

 

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6 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Fascinating. How common is it to have tropical remnants cause a massive snowstorm? Even if it’s that far north. 

It wasn’t a massive snowstorm, but we moved from Tennessee to Buffalo as Sandy moved inland and cut to the north. I remember driving through some decent snow showers on and off between Cincinnati and Cleveland. (I also remember the miles-long caravans of utility repair trucks, rolling eastbound towards NYC/NJ.)

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4 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Another bust today.  Glad I didn’t waste my time going down to see yet another line of storms get torn up and spit out by the lake…. Fizzle Fizzle!

 

The Sizzle Sizzle didn't fail here. Warmest in the state yet again...temp shot up 8 to 10 degrees the second SW flow kicked in. Yawn.

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57 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Seeing this gets me so excited for lake effect season!  Check out the band that has just been pumping in off Georgian Bay for the past 6 hours.  Looks like it’s even seeding a little convection off Ontario into WNY.  Almost Lake Effect time!  

AA0111C7-BB72-46B3-8661-DC1408E00872.gif

Lake effect really is the most fascinating type of weather IMO. It’s so mesoscale and so localized it’s so cool to see how conditions can vary so much over such a short distance. Where else in the country could you have 7 feet of snow and 10 miles away green grass literally. Just so cool and definitely getting pumped that we’re moving towards that season. 

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2 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Seeing this gets me so excited for lake effect season!  Check out the band that has just been pumping in off Georgian Bay for the past 6 hours.  Looks like it’s even seeding a little convection off Ontario into WNY.  Almost Lake Effect time!  

AA0111C7-BB72-46B3-8661-DC1408E00872.gif

Yep this was a torrential downpour right over my house as I was about to get on my motorcycle for work this morning. :fulltilt:

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Both GFS and euro have the warmest temps on Tuesday/Wednesday out ahead of the next cold front..As of now the best chance for 80°+ , besides that most of the"real" heat stays to the south with temps in the 70s most days..

 

Monday into Monday night, a stationary boundary will lie along or
just south of the NY/PA line. It will then surge back northward on
Tuesday as a warm front in response to troughing aloft over the
northern Plains and Midwest. Weak mid-level impulses move across the
stationary then warm front later Monday into Tuesday, so will place
SChc PoPs in for Monday afternoon across much of the region in the
vicinity of the boundary, with Chc PoPs in for Tuesday afternoon as
the boundary pushes back northeast through the area as warm front.
Right now appears that greatest chances of showers and some thunder
will occur along and east of the warm front, mainly Finger Lakes to
central, north central New York. Otherwise, expect a good deal of
dry time. Warm and more humid with highs above 80 for much of the
area except North Country which stays east of warm sector.

Majority of guidance in agreement with primary mid-upper level
trough and associated cold front impacting the Northeast and Mid
Atlantic states Wednesday into Thursday. This time around GFS is
slower with the front though. Run-to-run consistency not the
greatest so not sure how much stock to put in that idea. Overall
forecast has the greatest chances for showers and some thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon as the front crosses and combines with peak
heating. However, signal is there that could see convection as early
as Tuesday night after midnight.

Chances for showers gradually wane into Thursday as the primary
trough axis and sfc front shift east of western and north central NY
and high pressure builds across the Great Lakes. Even behind the
cold front though, it is looking more likely temps will remain above
normal in the mid to upper 70s. Only the GFS, which again has pretty
poor run-to-run continuity, is showing something cooler than that.
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22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Maybe a "chance" but NWS has 0 over the next 7 days as of now for kbuf..A couple/few upper 70s that could turn into 80° .. Wednesday looks to be an early high as well..

Screenshot_20210910-114131.png

You may have clicked closer to the lake. I show 80 on Sunday, 81 on Tuesday, 80 on Weds and high 70s the other days. Either way pretty toasty for mid September. 

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5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You may have clicked closer to the lake. I show 80 on Sunday, 81 on Tuesday, 80 on Weds and high 70s the other days. Either way pretty toasty for mid September. 

Thanks

Yeah that was DT buffalo I posted.. Yeah kbuf itself seems to be a couple degrees warmer..

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21 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah I think that sounds about right. I got the goods(6" in Queens) a week later. Mighty impressive for early November

Yeah one of my favorites lol That storm was nicknamed the "son of sandy", it was a coastal system that developed about 10 days after Sandy.. It was originally forecast to go inside the"bm" with coastal rain and inland snow, system decided to go east of the BM leaving inland with a mix and coastal regions with heavy cement lol Forecast was 38° and rain where I was living in CNJ, within an hour of precipitation it was 33° with heavy snow.. Twelve hours later we finished with a little over a foot of wet snow, a great surprise indeed lol

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FB_IMG_1631299443334.jpg

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