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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

I've been obsessed with golf this summer, so I'm trying to make lemonade out of this scenario.  If this winter is going to suck, I'll trade in my snowboard for my clubs and golf well into January, if not straight through the winter. I know friends who did that in the epically bad winter of 2011-2012.   Even last year I had friends golf in every month except February.  You just gotta roll with the weather and make the most of it.  

My dad and I golfed every month that year. We did it simply to say we did; the golf wasn’t great in January or February. 
Now that he has dementia and can no longer golf I’m glad we did it. Great memory if nothing else. 

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17 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

This is normal for late October right?  That line has had back to back tornado warnings for hours now!  And SPC carried a 0% tornado risk for those storms for the first half of the day… 

5EBA9930-DE01-4536-A638-54BE7473F3D9.png

pretty crazy. the rotation in the CC drop I posted above was definitely a TOG too. We've picked up a crapload of rain today, has to be well over an inch.

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3 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

My dad and I golfed every month that year. We did it simply to say we did; the golf wasn’t great in January or February. 
Now that he has dementia and can no longer golf I’m glad we did it. Great memory if nothing else. 

I'm so sorry to read this. I worked around people with dementia and it's heartbreaking. I can remember so vividly the one day a lady's husband came to visit her. He was walking right next to her, she came up to me and said, "Excuse me, sir. Do you know where my husband is?" He was such a loyal and faithful husband to her regardless of her condition. Much peace to you as you interact with your dad in the state that he is in.

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31 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I'm so sorry to read this. I worked around people with dementia and it's heartbreaking. I can remember so vividly the one day a lady's husband came to visit her. He was walking right next to her, she came up to me and said, "Excuse me, sir. Do you know where my husband is?" He was such a loyal and faithful husband to her regardless of her condition. Much peace to you as you interact with your dad in the state that he is in.

Thanks Matt! 

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RGEMs early take on our next big system SUN PM into MON AM.  Seem like these keep getting stronger and stronger every week if this verifies.  Can’t find the post now but someone was saying to keep an eye on the amount of moisture coming out of the GOM and tropics.  Whatever metric he was using showed this unusually massive amount of moisture being pulled up into the US fueling bigger storms.  Was a plausible thought and now seeing this… can see the streamers feeding into that storm.
 

 We’re going to see some kind of massive storm around our area in the next 10 day period.  Pretty good agreement with all the models we see a fairly consistent pattern of a storm system passing every 3-4 days.  Heaps of moisture from the south, cold air slowly building to the north.  The west coast is getting slammed with the atmospheric river thing adding even more juice.  Just need one of the storms to hit a kink and bam.  Maybe early snow?  More like high winds, severe storms, heavy rain.  There’s just too much energy floating across the country for something big not to happen in the next week or two.  

A0D223E8-927F-4E31-AE6B-A79FA7D3C391.gif

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5 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

My dad and I golfed every month that year. We did it simply to say we did; the golf wasn’t great in January or February. 
Now that he has dementia and can no longer golf I’m glad we did it. Great memory if nothing else. 

I'm so sorry bro. My grandpa had dementia for a few years before he passed, it was the saddest thing in the world. It's literally my biggest fear. I'd rather have my body go before my brain did.

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22 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

RGEMs early take on our next big system SUN PM into MON AM.  Seem like these keep getting stronger and stronger every week if this verifies.  Can’t find the post now but someone was saying to keep an eye on the amount of moisture coming out of the GOM and tropics.  Whatever metric he was using showed this unusually massive amount of moisture being pulled up into the US fueling bigger storms.  Was a plausible thought and now seeing this… can see the streamers feeding into that storm.
 

 We’re going to see some kind of massive storm around our area in the next 10 day period.  Pretty good agreement with all the models we see a fairly consistent pattern of a storm system passing every 3-4 days.  Heaps of moisture from the south, cold air slowly building to the north.  The west coast is getting slammed with the atmospheric river thing adding even more juice.  Just need one of the storms to hit a kink and bam.  Maybe early snow?  More like high winds, severe storms, heavy rain.  There’s just too much energy floating across the country for something big not to happen in the next week or two.  

A0D223E8-927F-4E31-AE6B-A79FA7D3C391.gif

That track right there is actually a perfect track for all of upstate during the winter. I agree with a lot of your post. Pattern memory is a thing too in the atmosphere and may continue into the cold months/

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Outside of the warmest urban core of New York City and Long Island, good ol' Sizzlecuse still warmest place in New York right now at 63 degrees. It's incredible, and disgusting. Always leaning warm...We'll have another above average day with warmest temps for the new day coming in overnight...which also seems to be another common thing with the new climate.

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Checking the forecast...even this "cool down" seems muted. It was looking like low 50s for days, but now right back up to 60 on Sunday and then mid to upper 50s...maybe 60s again next week? 

You guys know I love cold. I am honestly discouraged that we can't even get below normal for a few consecutive days. :huh:

So much warmth!!!!

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14 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

My dad and I golfed every month that year. We did it simply to say we did; the golf wasn’t great in January or February. 
Now that he has dementia and can no longer golf I’m glad we did it. Great memory if nothing else. 

I'm sorry to hear about your father's dementia. I'm very happy you made the most of your time with him.

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deep storm system churning over James Bay will remain in place through most of the weekend. This feature will maintain a feed of very cool air in place through the period that will hold our temperatures at below normal levels. Fortunately, this is only the latter half of October. If this were during the heart of winter, this pattern would support significant lake snows.

weatherstory (40).gif

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Scott Hetsko, reiterating a point I’ve been harping on for a while:  He claims we’ve now had 3 winters of less than 100” of snow and that it hasn’t happened since the early 80’s. 
Due! It’s all cyclical. 
Not really based on science but rather the law of averages. Of course a smart person could post the snowfall from the 50’s and really put a hurt on my enthusiasm. 
Either way, it looks like we get a taste in 2 weeks or so. 
So glad to be back and a heartfelt thanks to those of you who sympathized with my dad’s dementia diagnosis. I love this group! 

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The issue with this cool down is we are forecast clouds and showers nearly every day..So while some of the highs are below average, lows are not and keep rising lol Sunday night went from mid 30s to low 40s..

Today was kind of a cheap high of 59° at midnight but most of the day will feature mid-upper 40s.. Currently 49° with on and off weak lake showers..

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